Abstract
Introduction
After a surge in 2007 and 2008 the demand in the T&D market has overall
remained strong in the first half of 2009 despite the global financial crisis
and cuts in expenditure in some countries. Most companies in the T&D market
have reported good revenues in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter
of 2009, indeed several reported record achievements. This is largely because
of the surge in 2007 and the first half of 2008 in transmission expenditure,
notably in China and the Middle East. Some companies reported low orders,
especially large orders, in this period but this must be compared with the
exceptionally high performances of two years ago. Bearing in mind that the
fourth quarter is cyclically low and the first quarter high, Bill-to-Book was
good for all the big players in the first quarter of 2009 and through 2008, at
1.2 to 1.3. However, in some cases Backlog has declined as is used up.
The over-riding need for investment in transmission systems which have been
starved of funds for years, the drive for energy efficiency and fiscal
stimulus programmes in many countries have so far kept the market reasonably
buoyant. The time frame has been advanced to 2015, with transmission and
distribution lines lengths and transformer capacity recorded historically from
1970 to 2009, and forecast to 2015. Capex and T&D equipment demand are
forecast annually to 2013. This report is an expansion of the previous
editions in its analysis of the market, adding two new categories,
sub-stations and meters. The following groups are contained in the report.
Transformers, switchgear, cables, uninsulated lines, insulators and fittings,
HV towers, sub-stations, meters, utility automation and power systems.
Report Scope
The report is a substantial document of 505 pages containing overall analysis
of the transmission and distribution systems, chapters dealing with each of
183 individual countries and the detailed statistical tables of line lengths
and system capacity. Capital expenditure and market sizes for 10 categories of
T&D equipment and business service are sized and forecast for each year from
2008 to 2013.
The report contains the following information:
- 116 network maps.
- A series of tables detailing the international interconnections which are
enhancing access to generating capacity for many countries and optimising use
of surplus capacity
- The Power Pools now emerging around the world are outlined
- This new emphasis, assembling the network maps, information about the
Power Pools and details of interconnections, enables a more comprehensive
understanding of the process of interlinking national power systems globally
- A detailed analysis of global transmission and distribution networks which
total 5.9 million km in transmission lines and 62.2 million km of distribution
lines
- The global transmission market is expanding not only internally but via
linking the generating capacity of different countries
- The report examines this country by country and projects growth annually
until 2015
- A voltage analysis is provided where possible
- The report also looks at markets for transmission and distribution
equipment examining total capital expenditure and sizes individual markets for
8 categories of equipment and business service
Methodology
The methodology of the market size estimates and forecasts of development of
the T&D systems consisted of four stages, combining a top-down and a bottom-up
approach. This methodology was found to be effective in creating the forecasts
of electrical generating capacity in ABS Power Predictor, the companion study
to the present volume. This has been augmented with independent forecasts for
individual product groups which incorporate import and export data and where
available production data.
ABS has now built up a series of over 24 separate forecasts of different
components and aspects of the electricity supply industry globally. This
collection of separate forecasts is valuable in providing validation of each
forecast. For example, a database and forecast has been constructed for power
and distribution transformers from commercial data (import, export and
production figures). From the T&D Study, we can estimate transformer demand as
a constituent of total capex, since we have established how capex is broken
down. Each of these separate estimates either confirms of contradicts the
other and we can reconcile them.
Table of Contents
Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Market Size
- The Transmission and Distribution Systems
- Historical Development of Transmission and Distribution
- Value of the Market
- Product and Business Definition
- Products
- Transformers
- Switchgear
- HV Cables
- Overhead Lines
- Insulators and Fittings
- EHV Towers
- Mets
- Products and Systems
- Power Systems
- Utility Automation
- Outlook
- Capital Expenditure and Operational Expenditure
- Composition of construction cost
3. Major T&D Manufacturers
- The Global T&D Companies
- Developments in 2009
4. International Transmission Grids
- Europe
- UCTE
- ETSO
- CENTREL
- NORDEL
- BALTREL - Baltijos Ziedas - the Baltic Ring
- UPS Unified Power Systems
- BG/RO
- SUDEL
- Medring
- The Middle East and North African Inter-Connectors
- Middle East - Mashreq Arab Countries
- North Africa
- Pan-African Interconnection Plans
- Trans-African - Interconnection between Zaire and Egypt passing through
other
- Egypt-Sudan link
- Sudan-Ethiopia Power Link
- South African Power Pool (SAPP)
- Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
- West Africa - Interconnection of Mauritania-Senegal-Mali
- East Africa - Great Lakes Region
- Americas - from North to South
- Canada
- United States
- South of the Border
- The Northern Triangle of Central America
- Interconnection in Central America
- SIEPAC
- South America Regional Energy Sector Integration
- Comision de Integracion Electrica Regional (CIER)
- Interconnections in South America
- ASEAN Power Grid
- Northeast Asia
- Cenral Asian Grids
- South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC)
5. Europe
- European Transmission and Distribution Network Structures
- Albania
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Austria
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Belgium
- TSO
- Jurisdiction
- DNOs - Distribution system operators
- Bosnia Herzegovina
- Transmission and Distribution
- Distribution Companies
- Bulgaria
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Croatia
- Croatian transmission network
- Cyprus
- Czech Republic
- Transmission
- Power grid control
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Denmark
- TSOs
- Electricity Transmission Network
- Distribution
- Estonia
- Transmission and Distribution
- Baltrel
- Network Map 5-8: Estonian transmission network
- Finland
- Transmission
- TSO
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- France
- TSO
- DNOs
- Network Map 5-10: French transmission network of 225 kV and 400 kV lines
- Germany
- The control areas of the four German TSOs:
- Verbandervereinbarung
- Greece
- TSO
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Hungary
- ISO
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Iceland
- Transmission and distribution
- Ireland
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Italy
- Latvia
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Macedonia
- Transmission and Distribution
- Interconnections
- Malta
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Network Code
- Netherlands
- TSO
- Distribution
- Power Exchange
- Norway
- Poland
- TSO
- International Trade
- Polish Power Exchange
- Portugal
- The Portuguese Transmission Network
- Distribution
- Romania
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Serbia and Montenegro
- Transmission
- Distribution companies
- Slovakia
- Transmission
- Distribution Utilities (RDUs)
- Interconnections
- Slovenia
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Spain
- TSO
- Major Electricity Groups
- Distribution
- Integrated Iberian Electricity Market
- Sweden
- TSO
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Switzerland
- Turkey
- Transmission and Distribution
- Interconnections
- United Kingdom
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Supply
- The Networks and Energy Companies in the UK in 2006
- NationalGrid
- CE Electric UK
- Central Networks
- EDF Energy
- Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE)
- Scottish Power Energy Networks
- Northern Ireland Electricity (NIE)
- United Utilities
- Western Power Distribution
- UNMIK Kosovo
6. CIS - Commonwealth of Independent States (European)
- Armenia
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Azerbaijan
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- System Up-grades and Modernisation
- Belarus
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Georgia
- Transmission
- Dispatch
- Distribution
- International Electricity Trade
- Kazakhstan
- Transmission
- Distribution
- International electricity trade
- Kyrgyzstan
- Transmission
- Distribution
- International Electricity Trade
- Moldova
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Russia
- Restructuring of the Russian ESI
- Transmission
- Distribution and supply
- Physical Characteristics of the ESI
- Generating capacity and generation
- Transmission and Distribution
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Tajikstan
- Distribution companies
- Interconnections
- Turkmenistan
- Ukraine
- Transmission
- Wholesale Electricity Market: State Enterprise "Energorynok"
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Uzbekistan
8. Africa - Mahgreb
- Makgreb Interconnection
- Algeria
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Regulator
- Egypt
- Transmission
- National Energy Control Centre (NECC)
- Distribution
- Interconnections and the Africa Grid
- Libya
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Mauritania
- Morocco
- The open market
- The regulated market
- Transmission and distribution responsibilities
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Rural electrification
- Interconnections
- Sudan
- Tunisia
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
9. Africa - Sub-Saharan
- Sub-Saharan Power Pools
- SAPP - The Southern African Power Pool
- WAPP - The West African Power Pool
- EAPP - The East African Power Pool
- PEAC/CAPP - The Central African Power Pool or Pool Energetique d' Afrique
Centrale
- Angola
- Benin
- Bophutatswana
- Botswana
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Burkina Faso
- Transmissison
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Burundi
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Cameroon
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Cape Verde
- Central African Republic
- Chad
- Ciskei
- Comoros
- Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
- Congo, Republic
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Cote d' Ivoire
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Djibouti
- Ethiopia
- Gabon
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Gambia
- Ghana
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Guinea
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Guinea-Bissau
- Guinea Equatorial
- Kenya
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Lesotho
- Liberia
- Madagascar
- Malawi
- Mali
- Mauritius
- Mozambique
- Namibia
- Niger
- Nigeria
- Transmissio
- Kaduna Regional Transmission
- Lagos Regional Transmission
- Shiroro Regional Transmission
- Enugu Regional Transmission
- Bauchi Regional Transmission
- Benin Regional Transmission
- National Control Centre, Osogbo
- Distribution
- Rwanda
- Sao Tome & Principe
- Senegal
- Seychelles
- Sierre Leone
- Somalia
- South Africa
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Rural Electrification
- Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)
- Swaziland
- Tanzania
- Transmission and distributio
- Interconnections
- Future plans
- Togo
- Transkei
- Uganda
- Venda
- Zambia
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Zimbabwe
10. Middle East
- Bahrain
- Transmission and Distribution
- Iran
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Iraq
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Israel
- Jordan
- Kuwait
- Lebanon
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Oman
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Qatar
- Saudi Arabia
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Syria
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- UAE
- Transmission and Distribution
- Yemen
11. South Asia - Indian Sub-Continent
- Afghanistan
- Bangladesh
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Bhutan
- India
- Structure of the Indian ESI
- Central Transmission Utility (CTU)
- State Transmission Utility (STU)
- Transmission losses
- Regional and state organisation of the ESI
- NREB - Northern Regional Electricity Board
- WREB - Western Regional Electricity Board
- SREB - Southern Regional Electricity Board
- EREB - Eastern Regional Electricity Board
- NEREB - North-Eastern Regional Electricity Board
- Reform and Unbundling of SEBs
- Unbundled state transmission companies
- Other reforms in States
- Physical assets
- New Players in distribution
- Maldives
- Nepal
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Pakistan
- Unbundling and privatisation
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Sri Lanka
- Transmission
- Distribution
11. East Asia
- China
- Restructuring
- Generation
- Transmission Networks
- State Grid Corporation of China (SG)
- China Southern Power Grid Corporation Ltd. (CSG)
- Regional Interconnections
- North China Power Network
- Northeast Power Network
- Northwest Power Network
- East China Power Network
- Central China Power Network (including Sichuan and Chongqing Power Grids)
- Shandong Power Grid (Connected to NCPN)
- Fujian Power Grid (Connected to ECPN)
- South China Interconnected Power Network
- Future development, the Unified Power Grid of China
- Distribution
- Rural Electrification
- Interconnections with Thailand
- Possible Power Cooperation with Russia
- Hong Kong SAR
- Macau SAR
- Japan
- Transmission System
- Distribution Networks
- Transmission Interconnections
- Korea North
- Korea South
- Generation
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Mongolia
- Transmission and distribution
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Taiwan
- Deregulation and Privatisation Plans
- Transmission
- Distribution
12. ASEAN
- Brunei
- Cambodia
- Future Development
- Power Development Plan
- Interconnection with Thailand
- Interconnection with Vietnam
- Indonesia
- Transmission and distribution
- Java-Sumatra Interconnection
- East-South Kalimantan Interconnection
- Laos
- Distribution Grids
- Interconnections
- Interconnection Plan
- Malaysia
- Transmission
- Peninsular Malaysia
- Sarawak
- Sabah
- Interconnections
- Myanmar
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Philippines
- ESI Structure and Liberalisation
- Transmission grids
- Distribution
- Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA)
- Wholesale Market
- Singapore
- Transmission and distribution
- Interconnections
- Thailand
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Vietnam
- Transmission
- Development plans
- Distribution
13. Pacific
- Australia
- Fiji
- New Zealand
- Timeline
- The ESI in 2006
- North Island
- South Island
- Wholesale Market
- Papua New Guinea
- Solomon Islands
- Tonga
- Western Samoa
14. South America
- Argentina
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Bolivia
- Transmission
- Regional transmission lines
- Distribution
- Interconnection
- Brazil
- Eletrobras
- Regional subsidiaries of Eletrobas
- Minority holdings of Electrobras
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Transmission plans
- Medium term transmission plans
- Long term transmission plans
- Distribution system
- Ten-year investment plan 1997/2006
- Chile
- Generation
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Colombia
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Ecuador
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnection
- French Guiana
- Guyana
- Paraguay
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnection
- Peru
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnection
- Surinam
- Uruguay
- Venezuela
- Transmission
- Distribution
15. Central America and the Caribbean
- Bahamas
- Barbados
- Belize
- Bermuda
- Costa Rica
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Cuba
- Transmission and Distribution
- Dominican Republic
- Transmission and distribution
- El Salvador
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnections
- Guatemala
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Haiti
- Honduras
- Jamaica
- Mexico
- Transmission and distribution
- Interconnections
- SIEPAC
- Netherlands Antilles
- Nicaragua
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Panama
- Transmission
- Distribution
- Interconnection
- Puerto Rico
- St Lucia
- Trinidad and Tobago
16. North America
- Canada
- Interprovincial trade
- US trade
- Market structure and regulation
- Alberta
- The restructured Alberta Market
- British Columbia
- Market structure and regulation
- Restructuring initiatives
- Manitoba
- Market structure and regulation
- New Brunswick
- Market structure and regulation
- Newfoundland
- Northwest Territories
- Nova Scotia
- Market structure and regulation
- Ontario
- Trade
- Market structure and regulation
- Hydro One Inc.
- Distribution
- Prince Edward Island
- Quebec
- Interprovincial trade
- International trade
- Market structure and regulation
- Saskatchewan
- Market structure and regulation
- Yukon
- USA
- Background of the ESI in the US
- The origins and development of the US transmission system
- Crisis in the US electrical system
- Cascading outages
- November 9, 1965: Northeast Blackout
- July 13, 1977: New York City Blackout
- December 22, 1982: West Coast Blackout
- July 2-3, 1996: West Coast Blackout
- August 10, 1996: West Coast Blackout
- June 25, 1998: Upper Midwest Blackout
- Common or similar factors among major outages
- California
- Regulatory framework
- Composition of the 10 Regional Councils
- ASCC (Alaska System Coordination Council
- ECAR (East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement)
- ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas)
- MAIN (Mid-America Interconnected Network)
- MAAC (Mid-Atlantic Area Council)
- MAPP (US) (Mid-Continent Area Power Pool)
- NPCC (US) (Northeast Power Coordinating Council)
- SERC (Southeastern Electric Reliability Council)
- SPP (Southwest Power Pool)
- WSCC (US) (Western Systems Coordinating Council
- FRCC (Florida Reliability Coordinating Council)
- The HI Region
- NERC operational amd planning standards
- 1. Balance power generation and demand continuously
- 2. Balance reactive power supply and demand to maintain scheduled
voltages
- 3. Monitor flows over transmission lines and other facilities to ensure
that thermal (heating) limits are not exceeded
- 4. Keep the system in a stable condition
- 5. Operate the system so that it remains in a reliable condition even if
a contingency occurs, the N-1 criterion
- 6. Plan, design, and maintain the system to operate reliably
- 7. Prepare for emergencies
- RTOs (Regional Transmission Organisations)
- Standard Market Design and Structure (SMD)
- Distribution
- Aging infrastructure
- The reasons for the low commitment to infrastructure
- Competition
- Grid 2030
- National Electricity Backbone
- Regional interconnections
- Local, mini- and micro-grids
- Information technologies
- New materials
- Distributed energy resources
- Automation
- Power electronics controllers
- Computer modelling of market tools
- Communications architecture
- Energy Portals
17. Underground Cables
- National underground penetration in Western Europe
- Austria
- Belgium
- Denmark
- Finland
- France
- Distribution networks should be underground or protected
- Transmission networks
- Germany
- Greece
- Ireland
- Italy
- Luxembourg
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Portugal
- Spain
- Sweden
- Switzerland
- United Kingdom
- Possible contribution of underground cables to the European energy
infrastructure
- Available technologies for underground cables
- Technical aspects
- AC underground cables
- DC underground cables
- New technological developments
- Gas insulated line (GIL)
- High temperature superconducting cables (HTS)
18. Market forecast parameters
- Network statistics- historical and forecast
- Market forecasts
- Annual market
19. Methodology of Models and Forecasts
- Methodology
- Stage 1 - T&D forecasts
- The Master Database
- Capital expenditure validatio
- Stage 2
- MVA: MW > 6
- MVA: MW - 4 to 6
- MVA: MW < 4
- Stage 3
- Stage 4
- Large country models - USA, China, Russia, Brazil
20. Sources
22. Statistical tables
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