Abstract
Despite penetration levels exceeding 100% of the population, Australia' s mobile market recoded stronger-than-expected growth in 2007, thanks largely to the substantial 3G progresses made by all four carriers, notably Telstra' s Next G. The industry remained one of the very few segments driving the country' s telecom connectivity market.
The mobile market was arguably the most exciting, innovative and competitive segment, with important milestones continued to be made last year: the introduction of flat mobile data charges, debut of 3.5G networks across the country, and the introduction of prepaid and MVNO 3G offerings. Produced annually as the flagship report in Telsyte' s Market Analysis and Forecast Series, this study offers a detailed investigation and comprehensive analysis of the Australian mobile market by providing:
- A snapshot of the Australian mobile market for the year ending December 2007, featuring the market' s key performance indicators (KPIs), including subscribers, revenue and ARPU, by network generation (2G vs. 3G), by service (voice vs. non-voice), by non-voice application type (messaging, mobile broadband, paid content), by user segment (business vs. consumer), and by billing status (prepaid vs. postpaid);
- Brief profiles of the four major mobile carriers and MVNOs, including their 2006 and 2007 KPIs, strategies, activities, and the range of smart phones they carried;
- Analysis of industry trends and outlook with discussions on technology and regulatory developments, as well as trends and mobile application adoptions by businesses and consumers;
- Telsyte' s five-year forecast of the market from 2008 to 2012 in terms of subscribers, revenue and ARPU, by network generation, service, non-voice application type, user segment, and billing status;
- A comparative five-year forecast of 3G-based mobile broadband vs. WiMAX-based wireless broadband markets;
- A summary of major announcements and developments impacting the Australian mobile market in the past 15 months; and
- Conclusion and recommendations.
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2. INTRODUCTION
- 2.1 Methodology
- 2.2 Definitions
3. 2007 AUSTRALIAN MOBILE MARKET REVIEW
- 3.1 Overall Market Review
- 3.1.1 Beyond 100% mobile penetration... and counting
- 3.1.2 Non-voice and 3G drive ARPU U-turn
- 3.1.3 SMS dominates but mobile broadband "explodes"
- 3.1.4 Overall market shares
- 3.2 3G Market Review
- 3.2.1 3G market shares
- 3.3 Mobile Market Review Summary
- 3.4 Carrier Performance and Activity Review
- 3.4.1 Telstra
- 3.4.2 Optus
- 3.4.3 Vodafone
- 3.4.4 Hutchison
- 3.4.5 MVNOs
4. 2007-2011 MARKET FORECAST AND OUTLOOK
- 4.1 Forecast Assumptions
- 4.2 Market Forecast
- 4.2.1 Subscriber forecast: towards 112% penetration in 2012
- 4.2.2 Revenue forecast: revenue growing twice as fast as subscribers
- 4.2.3 Technology generation forecast: 2G era is over
- 4.2.4 Billing status and user segment forecast
- 4.2.5 Voice and SMS traffic forecast: volume rises while price drops
- 4.2.6 Mobile broadband vs. wireless broadband forecast: battle is won
- 4.2.7 Five-Year Mobile Market Forecast Summary
- 4.3 Market Outlook
5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
6. RELATED RESEARCH
7. APPENDIX - MAJOR AUSTRALIAN MOBILE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS, 2007-1Q2008
Figure Page
- Figure 1. Australian Mobile Subscribers and Annual Service Revenue, 2003 - 2007
- Figure 2. Australian Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Rates, 2003 - 2007
- Figure 3. Australian Mobile Annual Service Revenue, Voice vs Non-Voice, 2003 - 2007
- Figure 4. Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU, 2003 - 2007
- Figure 5. Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU By Generation, 2003 - 2007
- Figure 6. Australian Mobile Non-Voice Revenue by Application Type, 2007
- Figure 7. Australian Mobile Subscriber Market Share by Carrier, 2007
- Figure 8. Australian Mobile Revenue Market Share by Carrier, 2007
- Figure 9. Australian Mobile Subscribers by Technology Generation, 2003 - 2007
- Figure 10. Australian Mobile Service Revenue by Technology Generation, 2003 - 2007
- Figure 11. Australian 3G Subscriber Share by Provider, 2007
- Figure 12. Australian 3G Service Revenue Share by Provider, 2007
- Figure 13. Australian Mobile Subscriber and Penetration Rate Forecast, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 14. Australian Mobile Service Subscriber and Revenue Forecast, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 15. Australian Mobile Service Revenue forecast, Voice vs Non-Voice, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 16. Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU Forecast, Voice vs Non-Voice, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 17. Australian Mobile Non-Voice Service Revenue Forecast by Application Type, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 18. Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Technology Generation, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 19. Australian Mobile Revenue Forecast by Technology Generation, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 20. Australian Mobile Monthly ARPU Forecast by Technology Generation, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 21. Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by Billing Status, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 22. Australian Mobile Subscriber Forecast by User Segment, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 23. Australian Mobile Voice Minute and Cost/Min Forecast, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 24. Australian Mobile SMS Traffic and Cost/SMS Forecast, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 25. Australian Mobile Broadband and Wireless Broadband Subscriber Forecast, 2008 - 2012
- Figure 26. Telstra' s Mobile Technology Evolution RoadMap, 2008-2013
- Figure 27. Australian Mobile Technology Evolution RoadMap, 2008-2010
- Figure 28. Current and Future Adoption of Business Mobile Applications, 2007
Table
- Table 1. Australian Mobile Broadband Offerings by Carrier, 1Q 2008
- Table 2. Australian 3G Network Deployment, 1Q 2008
- Table 3. Australian Mobile Market Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007
- Table 4. Telstra Mobile Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007
- Table 5. Optus Mobile Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007
- Table 6. Vodafone Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007
- Table 7. Hutchison 3 Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007
- Table 8. MVNO Key Performance Indicators, 2006 c.f. 2007
- Table 9. Australian Mobile Market Forecast, 2008 -2012
