Abstract
WiMAX: Ambitions and reality is an in-depth analysis of the opportunities and challenges that WiMAX presents over the next five years. It is based on an extensive forecast of subscriptions, devices in use, service revenues and equipment revenues.
In the next five years, WiMAX will become a mature technology for mobile broadband access and will be ready to take one the challenge from LTE. Initially, the largest opportunity for WiMAX lies in the fixed- access and nomadic market in emerging countries and in a few developed countries like the US. This will give WiMAX the opportunity to gain a strong foothold in the market, as mobile devices become commercially available and affordable to the mass market. With time, mobile access will gain more traction, as mobile operators commit to deploying high-capacity, low-latency, all-IP mobile broadband networks.
By the end of the forecast period, most subscribers will use WiMAX as a mobile technology. In developed countries, WiMAX is a natural evolution beyond 3G; in emerging markets, it may represent the first mobile broadband data network for subscribers. In all cases, WiMAX subscribers will increasingly use multiple devices linked to a single account, depending on where they are and which applications they are using.
It is not yet clear which technology, WiMAX or LTE, will win the battle to conquer the mobile broadband mass market. The stakes are high, as mobile broadband has the potential to become as pervasive as cellular voice. Both WiMAX and LTE use a similar set of technologies at their core so the performance will be comparable. At the end of the day, it may not matter much which one will prevail to operators and subscribers.
The report presents an overview of how we expect the market for WiMAX to develop, of the challenges faced by WiMAX operators, and of the market opportunity that the technology presents in different geographies.
Our analysis is based on a wide range of consulting engagements with network operators and vendors worldwide, on the development of in-depth business models to assess the market opportunity for different players, and on a continuous dialogue with the key players in the fixed and mobile broadband market.
Extensive forecast (2007-2012) of WiMAX demand, service revenues and equipment revenues includes:
Regions Asia Pacific, North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East/North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa
Countries Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, Russia, UK, USA
Forecast data for each country and region
- Fixed and mobile broadband subscribers
- Fixed and mobile WiMAX subscribers
- Data and VoIP service revenues
- Device types in use and sale volume
- Equipment revenues for network infrastructure and subscriber devices
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Report roadmap
3. An assessment of the prospects for WiMAX "Fixed" or "Mobile" WiMAX?
- 3.1 The progress so far
- Terminology: "WiMAX" or "Pre-certified WiMAX" or "Proprietary"?
- WiMAX Certification in a Nutshell
- 3.2 Timeline for network rollouts and subscriber adoption
- 3.3 The next five years
- 3.3.1 How can operators make money from WiMAX?
- 3.3.2 How will operators charge for WiMAX services?
- 3.3.3 How will subscribers with multiple WiMAX devices be charged?
- 3.3.4 Will the devices be subsidized?
- 3.3.5 What will be the killer application for WiMAX?
- 3.3.6 When will compelling devices be available?
- 3.3.7 What will the relative importance of fixed versus mobile services be?
- 3.3.8 Will WiMAX IPR be cheaper than 3G (or LTE)? Defining interoperability in the core network
- 3.3.9 Will a robust WiMAX ecosystem emerge?
- 3.3.10 In which bands will WiMAX operate?
- 3.3.11 Will it be Mobile WiMAX or LTE? And does it matter? Wi-Fi, HSDPA, EV-DO RevA
4. Market forecast approach and methodology
- 4.1 Challenges in forecasting WiMAX adoption
- 4.2 Approach and methodology
- 4.3 Sources of information
- 4.4 Market forecast model
- 4.5 Subscribers and devices
- Subscribers: fixed, personal broadband and mobile; business, residential, consumer
5. The addressable market
- 5.1 The evolution of the fixed broadband market
- 5.2 Growth in the fixed wireless broadband access market
- 5.3 The cellular market
- 5.4 The mobile wireless broadband market
6. WiMAX in the fixed and mobile broadband market
- 6.1 WiMAX in the fixed broadband market
- 6.2 WiMAX in the mobile broadband market
- 6.3 Total WiMAX subscribers
7. The key to WiMAX success: device availability
- 7.1 Killer applications? Try killer devices
- 7.2 More devices than subscribers
- 7.3 One subscriber, one identity, many devices
- 7.4 Moving beyond the desktop modem and the laptop
- 7.5 The market for WiMAX devices
8. Turning a profit
- 8.1 Subscribers' willingness to pay
- 8.2 How much can you charge for WiMAX services?
- 8.3 Service plans for fixed and mobile data access
- 8.3.1 Flat-fee or capped services?
- 8.3.2 Symmetric or uplink-constrained throughput?
- 8.3.3 Personal or family plans?
- 8.3.4 Pre-paid or post-paid?
- 8.3.5 Free mobile VoIP?
- 8.3.6 Single or multiple devices?
- 8.3.7 Technology or service based?
- 8.4 Data service revenues
- 8.5 VoIP service revenues
9. The vendor market
- 9.1 Timeline for infrastructure and device availability
- 9.2 WiMAX device sales
- 9.3 WiMAX device revenues
- 9.4 Equipment revenues
- 9.5 Total WiMAX equipment revenues
10. Regional forecast and assessment of WiMAX adoption
- 10.1 Regional data
- 10.1.1 Asia Pacific
- 10.1.2 North America
- 10.1.3 Western Europe
- 10.1.4 Eastern Europe
- 10.1.5 Latin America
- 10.1.6 Middle East, North Africa
- 10.1.7 Sub-Saharan Africa
- 10.2 Country data
- 10.2.1 China
- 10.2.2 India
- 10.2.3 Japan
- 10.2.4 South Korea
- 10.2.5 Australia
- 10.2.6 USA
- 10.2.7 Canada
- 10.2.8 Germany
- 10.2.9 United Kingdom
- 10.2.10 France
- 10.2.11 Spain
- 10.2.12 Italy
- 10.2.13 Russia
- 10.2.14 Brazil
- 10.2.15 Mexico
- 10.2.16 Argentina
11. Conclusions: to 2012 and beyond
- 11.1 Crucial steps for the success of WiMAX
- 11.2 Broader market trends
- 11.3 WiMAX' s ambitions and reality
- 11.4 A peek beyond 2012
- 11.4.1 Scenario one: WiMAX becomes a well-established niche technology
- 11.4.2 Scenario two: WiMAX dominates the wireless-broadband market
- 11.5 Action items for vendors and network operators
List of figures
- Figure 1. Global forecast highlights: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 2. Global forecast highlights: service and equipment devices
- Figure 3. Fixed or Mobile?
- Figure 4. Timeline for WiMAX adoption
- Figure 6. WiMAX core network
- Figure 6. The WiMAX ecosystem
- Figure 7. The roadmap to next-generation wireless broadband technologies
- Figure 8. Adoption drivers and enablers
- Figure 9. Market forecast model
- Figure 10. Main access types among WiMAX subscribers from 2007 to 2017
- Figure 11. Growth in cellular and fixed broadband subscriptions
- Figure 12. Comparison between growth in broadband subscriptions and mobile broadband devices
- Figure 13. Broadband subscribers by region
- Figure 14. Broadband lines per 100 people
- Figure 15. Broadband lines by technology
- Figure 16. BWA and FTTH subscribers
- Figure 17. BWA subscribers by region
- Figure 18. BWA as a percentage of broadband in different regions
- Figure 19. Penetration of cellular voice services
- Figure 20. Cellular subscribers by region
- Figure 21. 2G and 3G cellular subscribers
- Figure 22. Mobile broadband devices by region
- Figure 23. Mobile broadband devices
- Figure 24. Worldwide WiMAX subscribers
- Figure 25. Fixed WiMAX and other BWA subscribers
- Figure 26. Fixed WiMAX subscribers by region
- Figure 27. Fixed WiMAX subscribers in developed and emerging markets
- Figure 28. Fixed WiMAX subscribers using IEEE 802.16-2004 and 802.16e-2005
- Figure 29. 3G and mobile WiMAX subscriptions
- Figure 30. Initial subscriber growth for GSM, WCDMA, Wi-Fi and WiMAX
- Figure 31. Mobile WiMAX subscribers in developed and emerging markets
- Figure 32. Mobile WiMAX subscribers
- Figure 33. Main access type among WiMAX subscribers (2006-2012)
- Figure 34. WiMAX subscribers by region
- Figure 35. WiMAX subscribers in developed and emerging markets
- Figure 36. Fixed WiMAX subscribers as a percentage of global WiMAX subscribers and of fixed broadband subscribers in the region
- Figure 37. Mobile WiMAX subscribers as a percentage of global WiMAX subscribers and of mobile broadband subscribers in the region
- Figure 38. Total WiMAX subscribers as a percentage of global WiMAX subscribers and of fixed broadband subscribers in the region
- Figure 39. Fixed, mobile and total WiMAX subscribers as a percentage of global WiMAX subscribers and of domestic fixed and mobile broadband subscribers
- Figure 40. Mobile devices per subscriber, by country and by region
- Figure 41. Timeline for device availability
- Figure 42. WiMAX devices in use
- Figure 43. Percentage of mobile broadband devices with WiMAX
- Figure 44. Distribution of fixed and mobile devices by region and by country in 2012
- Figure 45. Distribution of mobile WiMAX devices by region and by country in 2012
- Figure 46. Mobile WiMAX devices per 100 people
- Figure 47. Mobile WiMAX devices by region
- Figure 48. WiMAX laptops by region
- Figure 49. WiMAX data-centric devices by region
- Figure 50. WiMAX phones by region
- Figure 51. WiMAX CE devices by region
- Figure 52. Data and VoIP ARPU for different services by region by 2012
- Figure 53. Data service revenues by primary device
- Figure 54. Total data service revenues by region
- Figure 55. Data service revenues by region: fixed subscribers
- Figure 56. Data service revenues by region: fixed and mobile subscribers
- Figure 57. Service revenues: mobile data by region
- Figure 58. VoIP subscribers by service type (fixed, mobile, fixed and mobile)
- Figure 59. VoIP subscribers by region
- Figure 60. Service revenues: total VoIP by region
- Figure 61. Service revenues: fixed VoIP by region
- Figure 62. Service revenues: fixed and mobile VoIP by region
- Figure 63. Service revenues: mobile VoIP by region
- Figure 64. Service revenues: total data and VoIP by region
- Figure 65. Driving large-scale WiMAX deployments
- Figure 66. WiMAX device sales
- Figure 67. Device sales by region
- Figure 68. WiMAX device revenues
- Figure 69. WiMAX device cumulative revenues
- Figure 70. Device revenues by region
- Figure 71. WiMAX devices ASP
- Figure 72. WiMAX equipment revenues
- Figure 73. Infrastructure equipment revenues by region
- Figure 74. Subscriber and equipment revenues by region and country
- Figure 75. WiMAX cumulative equipment revenues
- Figure 76. Cumulative count of WiMAX new base stations
- Figure 77. Subscribers and devices per base station
- Figure 78. Global equipment revenues
- Figure 79. Global cumulative equipment revenues
- Figure 80. Cumulative equipment revenues per subscriber
- Figure 81. Total WiMAX equipment revenues by region
- Figure 82. Subscribers and equipment revenues by region and country
- Figure 83. Asia Pacific: summary
- Figure 84. Asia Pacific: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 85. Asia Pacific: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 86. North America: summary
- Figure 87. North America: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 88. North America: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 89. Western Europe: summary
- Figure 90. Western Europe: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 91. Western Europe: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 92. Eastern Europe, Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa: summary
- Figure 93. Eastern Europe: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 94. Eastern Europe: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 95. Latin America: summary
- Figure 96. Latin America: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 97. Latin America: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 98. Middle East, North Africa: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 99. Middle East, North Africa: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 100. Sub-Saharan Africa: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 101. Sub-Saharan Africa: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 102. China: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 103. China: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 104. India: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 105. India: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 106. Japan: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 107. Japan: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 108. South Korea: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 109. South Korea: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 110. Australia: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 111. Australia: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 112. USA: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 113. USA: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 114. Canada: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 115. Canada: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 116. Germany: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 117. Germany: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 118. UK: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 119. UK: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 120. France: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 121. France: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 122. Spain: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 123. Spain: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 124. Italy: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 125. Italy: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 126. Russia: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 127. Russia: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 128. Brazil: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 129. Brazil: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 130. Mexico: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 131. Mexico: WiMAX service and equipment revenues
- Figure 132. Argentina: devices and subscriptions
- Figure 133. Argentina: WiMAX services and equipment revenues
List of Tables
- Table 1. Fixed and Mobile WiMAX compared
- Table 2. WiMAX Forum Certification Waves
- Table 3. Drivers and challenges for WiMAX over the next five years
- Table 4. WiMAX-enabled applications
- Table 5. Competing cellular technologies
- Table 6. A comparison of HSDPA, LTE, EV-DO, UMB and WiMAX
- Table 7. Markets and regions with a separate WiMAX forecast
- Table 8. One ARPU, multiple devices, multiple individuals
- Table 9. The market opportunity for fixed and mobile access with WiMAX
- Table 10. Ambitions and reality
- Table 11. Action items for key WiMAX players
