巴西生物燃料市場：市場預測（2007年至2010年）

Abstract

RNCOS' report “Brazil Biofuel Market Outlook (2007-2010)” provides research and objective analysis of Brazilian biofuel industry. This report helps clients to analyze the opportunities and evaluate the factors that are critical to the success of biofuel industry in Brazil. Government support, environmental objectives, diversity & security of fuel remain the major market forces for Brazil biofuel industry.

Brazil Biofuel Industry

Biofuel industry in Brazil is on high growth trajectory. Apart from being the largest sugarcane producer, Brazil has also been able to make its mark in ethanol production. In 2005, Brazil produced a total of 16.821 Billion Liter of ethanol, while its sugarcane production for 2005-06 stood at 423 Million Metric Tons. The huge availability of raw material for ethanol production has made Brazil a cost-effective ethanol producer in the world.

Key Findings

• Environmental (climate change), along with diversity & security of energy supply, remain the primary driving forces for Brazil' s biofuel industry.
• Growth of ethanol production in Brazil during 2007-2010 is likely to attain CAGR of 8.48%.
• Growing Brazil biofuel industry has the potential to create new opportunities for sustainable rural development in agricultural sector.
• Cost analysis of Brazil ethanol production.

Key Issues and Facts Analyzed

• Energy consumption pattern in Brazilian energy market.
• Reasons for tremendous growth in ethanol market in Brazil and potential challenges for the future growth of sugarcane-based ethanol production.
• Performance of Brazilian biofuel industry in transportation and power sector.
• Other sources of ethanol production.
• Trade of hydrous and anhydrous ethanol.
• Opportunities in Brazil biofuel industry.
• Future production of biofuel in Brazil.
• Challenging factors for the growth of biofuel industry in Brazil.

Key Players Analyzed

This section covers the key facts about the major ethanol producers currently operating in the Brazil biofuel industry such as Copersucar, COSAN, Crystalsev, Petrobras, São Martinho S.A, and ARALCO.

Research Methodology

Information Sources

Books, Newspapers, Trade Journals, and White papers, Industry portals, Government Agencies, Trade associations, Monitoring Industry News and developments, and access to more than 3000 paid databases are the sources of information being referred to for gathering credible and reliable information on this industry.

Analysis Method

Analysis methods applied include Ratio Analysis, Historical Trend Analysis, Linear Regression Analysis using software tools, Judgmental Forecasting and Cause and Effect Analysis.

Table of Contents

1. Analyst View

2. Research Overview

3. Industry Overview

• 3.1 Biofuel
  • 3.1.1 Ethanol
    • 3.1.1.1 Production & Trade Forecast (2007-2010)
  • 3.1.2 Biodiesel
    • 3.1.2.1 Production Forecast (2007-2010)
• 3.2 Production Cost
• 3.3 Government Policies
  • 3.3.1 European Union
  • 3.3.2 United States
  • 3.3.3 Brazil
  • 3.3.4 Canada

4. Brazil - Industry Performance

• 4.1 Ethanol
  • 4.1.1 Production
  • 4.1.2 Consumption
  • 4.1.3 Import & Export
    • 4.1.3.1 Hydrous Ethanol
    • 4.1.3.2 Anhydrous Ethanol
  • 4.1.4 Government Policies
• 4.2 Biodiesel
  • 4.2.1 Production & Consumption
  • 4.2.2 Import & Export
  • 4.2.3 Government Policies
• 4.3 Energy Consumption Pattern
• 4.4 Production Cost
  • 4.4.1 Ethanol
  • 4.4.2 Biodiesel

5. Industry Analysis

• 5.1 Driving Forces
  • 5.1.1 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions
  • 5.1.2 Energy Diversification
  • 5.1.3 Cost of Production
  • 5.1.4 Sugarcane Production
  • 5.1.5 Ethanol Demand
  • 5.1.6 High Efficiency
  • 5.1.7 Geographical & Climatic Benefits
• 5.2 Opportunities
  • 5.2.1 Increasing Diesel Sales
  • 5.2.2 Flex Fuel Vehicles Sales
  • 5.2.3 Cellulosic Ethanol
  • 5.2.4 Employment
  • 5.2.5 Biotechnology
• 5.3 Challenges
  • 5.3.1 Deforestation
  • 5.3.2 Agricultural Issues
  • 5.3.3 Sugar Industry
  • 5.3.4 Other Issues
• 5.4 Future Outlook (2007-2010)
  • 5.4.1 Ethanol Production Forecast (2007-2010)
  • 5.4.2 Biodiesel Demand Forecast (2007-2015)

6. Major Market Players

• 6.1 Copersucar
• 6.2 COSAN
• 6.3 Petrobras
• 6.4 São Martinho S.A
• 6.5 Crystalsev
• 6.6 ARALCO

List of Figures:

• Figure 3-1: Global - Biofuel Production (in Billion Liter), 2004 & 2005
• Figure 3-2: Global - Ethanol Production (in Billion Liter), 2004 & 2005
• Figure 3-3: Global - Share of Countries in Ethanol Production (%), 2005
• Figure 3-4: Global - Forecast of Ethanol Production (in Billion Liter), 2007-2010
• Figure 3-5: Global - Forecast of Ethanol Trade (in Billion Liter), 2007-2010
• Figure 3-6: Global - Biodiesel Production (in Billion Liter), 2004 & 2005
• Figure 3-7: Global - Share of Countries in Biodiesel Production (%), 2005
• Figure 3-8: Global - Forecast of Biodiesel Production (in Billion Liter), 2007-2010
• Figure 4-1: Brazil - Ethanol Production (in Billion Liter), 2004 & 2005
• Figure 4-2: Brazil - Ethanol Production by Region (%), 2005
• Figure 4-3: Brazil - Ethanol Production from Sugarcane & Corn (in Liter/Hectare), 2005-06
• Figure 4-4: Brazil - Ethanol Consumption (in Thousand Meter Cube), 2000-01 to 2005-06
• Figure 4-5: Brazil - Anhydrous & Hydrated Ethanol Consumption (%), 2000-01 to 2005-06
• Figure 4-6: Brazil - Ethanol Imports & Exports (in Thousand Liter), 2001-2005
• Figure 4-7: Brazil - Biodiesel Imports & Exports (in Metric Tons), 2001-2005 & Q12006
• Figure 4-8: Brazil - Energy Consumption Pattern (%), 2005
• Figure 4-9: Brazil - Transportation Fuel Matrix (%), 2005
• Figure 5-1: Global - Biofuel Production Cost (in US$/ Liter), 2004
• Figure 5-2: Brazil - Forecast of Sugarcane Production (in Thousand Metric Tons), 2007-2010
• Figure 5-3: Global - Ethanol Demand (in Million Liter), 1997-2005
• Figure 5-4: Brazil - Flex Fuel & Ethanol Compatible Vehicle Production (in Units), 2004-2006
• Figure 5-5: Brazil - Number of Employment Generation in Ethanol & Other Fuel Industry, 2005
• Figure 5-6: Brazil - Causes of Deforestation in Amazon (%), 2005
• Figure 5-7: Global - Sugar Price (in Cents/Pound), Jan. 2004 to Jan. 2006
• Figure 5-8: Brazil - Forecast of Ethanol Production (in Thousand Barrel/Day), 2007-2010
• Figure 5-9: Brazil - Forecast of Biodiesel Demand (in Thousand Meter Cube/Year), 2007-2015

List of Tables:

• Table 3-1: Global - Biofuel Production by Top Countries (in Billion Liter), 2004 & 2005
• Table 3-2: Global - Feedstock for Biofuel & their Typical Use, 2005
• Table 3-3: EU, US & Brazil - Biofuel Production Cost (in US$/ Liter), 2004
• Table 4-1: Brazil - Ethanol Production by State (in Thousand Meter Cube), 2004 & 2005
• Table 4-2: Brazil - Raw Material Productivity for Ethanol Production (2005-06)
• Table 4-3: Brazil - Ethanol Productivity from Sugarcane (2000-01 to 2005-06)
• Table 4-4: Brazil - Ethanol Consumption by Types (in Thousand Meter Cube), 2000-01 to 2005-06
• Table 4-5: Brazil - Ethanol Import & Export (in Thousand Liter), 2001-2005 & Q1 2006
• Table 4-6: Brazil - Hydrous Ethanol Export by Country (2003-2005)
• Table 4-7: Brazil - Anhydrous Ethanol Export by Country (2003-2005)
• Table 4-8: Brazil - Bidding Quantity, Production & Consumption of Biodiesel (in Meter Cube), Nov. 2005 to Jul. 2006
• Table 4-9: Brazil - Biodiesel Production Capacity (in Million Liter), 2005
• Table 4-10: Brazil - Biodiesel Production Capacity by Region (in Million Liter), 2007
• Table 4-11: Brazil - Biodiesel Production by Various Crops (in Meter Cube/Year), 2005
• Table 4-12: Brazil - Characteristics of Different Crops
• Table 4-13: Brazil - Tax Incentives for Biodiesel, 2005
• Table 4-14: Global - Ethanol Production Cost in Top Countries by Raw Material (in US$/Liter), 2004
• Table 4-15: Global - Biodiesel Production Cost in Top Countries (in US$/Liter), 2004
• Table 5-1: Brazil - Ethanol Efficiency Ratio from Different Raw Materials, 2005
• Table 5-2: Brazil - Diesel Sales by Region (in Thousand Meter Cube), 2001-2005
• Table 5-3: Comparison of Different Mode of Ethanol Sources, 2007
• Table 6-1: Copersucar - Financial Performance (2001-02 to 2005-06)
• Table 6-2: COSAN - Financial Performance (2003-2006)
• Table 6-3: Petrobras - Financial Performance (in Million US$), 2003-2005
• Table 6-4: São Martinho - Financial Performance (in Million R$), 2004-2006
• Table 6-5: São Martinho - Production Statistics (2005-06)
• Table 6-6: Crystalsev - Sugar & Alcohol Production (2005-06)
• Table 6-7: ARALCO - Ethanol Production (in Meter Cube), 1999-2000 to 2005-06