中國能源市場分析

Abstract

NCOS report "China Energy Sector Analysis" provides extensive research and objective analysis of China Energy Industry. This report will help clients to analyze the leading-edge opportunities critical to the success of energy industry in China. Detailed data and analysis will help the potential investors to navigate through the evolving market for energy sources.

China Energy Industry

China energy industry consumption is estimated to reach 1629 Million Tons of oil equivalent in year 2006. Non-fossil fuels, especially coal (it accounted for 69% of the total energy consumption in 2005) & oil (21%), are the major sources for energy in China. With the China' s objective to secure energy for future & to look for and embrace clean renewable energy sources is expected to grow at rapid pace.

Key Findings

• Energy efficiency is the major issue for Chinese energy industry. E.g., if national commercial and residential codes are well enforced, they could reduce carbon emissions by 49 Million Tons in 2020, displacing the need for 23 large (1,000-megawatt) coal-fired power plants.
• Natural gas accounted only for 3% of China energy mix in year 2005. For this, Chinese government has seen the target of 10% till the year 2010. With limited natural gas reserves, it is expected that to meet set target, China will emerge as big natural gas importer in near future.
• To ensure supply diversity, China aimed to reduce dependence upon oil & gas, which will offer immense opportunities for renewable energy source. Although China' s share of renewable energy will rise in future but coal is expected to be the major source for energy in near term.
• In China' s biodiesel industry, principal difficulty is the lack of eligible sources of production e.g. China is a net importer (in fact, it is the largest importer in the world) in all the major edible vegetable oils.
• China registered rapid growth in solar cell production. In only 2-3 years (roughly from 2003 to 2005), solar cell production share of the country increased from 1.07% to 8% with respect to the world, only after Japan and Europe. In wind energy, China' s abundant inland and offshore wind energy resources provide potential for large-capacity in-grid wind farms.

Key Issues and Facts Analyzed

• What are the opportunities in the China Energy Industry?
• China energy consumption by energy source.
• Why renewable energy sources are important for China?
• Key Drivers & challenges faced by China energy industry.
• Analysis of the major players in the industry.

Key Players Analyzed

This section provides an overview of the key players in the China energy sector such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC & SunTech.

Research Methodology Used

Information Sources

The information has been compiled from authentic and reliable sources like Books, Newspapers, Trade Journals, and White papers, Industry portals, Government Agencies, Trade associations, Monitoring Industry News and developments, and Access to more than 3000 paid databases.

Analysis Method

Methods like Ratio Analysis, Historical Trend Analysis, Linear Regression Analysis using software tools, Judgmental Forecasting and Cause and Effect Analysis have been used in the report for prudent analysis.

Table of Contents

1. Analyst View

2. Research Overview

3. Global Energy Statistics

• 3.1 Energy Statistics by Region
• 3.2 Energy Statistics by Source
  • 3.2.1 Petroleum
  • 3.2.2 Coal
  • 3.2.3 Natural Gas
  • 3.2.4 Nuclear Energy

4. China Energy

• 4.1 Coal
• 4.2 Petroleum
• 4.3 Natural Gas
• 4.4 Photovoltaic Industry
• 4.5 Wind Industry
• 4.6 Biofuel
  • 4.6.1 Ethanol
    • 4.6.1.1 Raw Materials for Ethanol Production
  • 4.6.2 Biodiesel
    • 4.6.2.1 Raw Materials for Biodiesel Production

5. China Electricity Supply

6. Industry Analysis

• 6.1 Renewable Energy Demand Drivers
  • 6.1.1 Continuous Economic Growth
  • 6.1.2 Environmental Policies
  • 6.1.3 Energy Security & Diversity
• 6.2 Opportunities
  • 6.2.1 Energy Mix - Investing in Solutions
  • 6.2.2 Potential Electricity Demand
  • 6.2.3 Rise in Natural Gas Imports
• 6.3 Challenges
  • 6.3.1 Carbon Emissions
  • 6.3.2 Energy Efficiency
  • 6.3.3 Competitiveness of Renewable Sources Compared with Coal at Consumption Level
• 6.4 Future Outlook (2007-2011)
  • 6.4.1 Energy Consumption will Grow Steadily
  • 6.4.2 China' s Oil will Come from Imports
  • 6.4.3 Increasing Importance of Gas

7. Key Players

• 7.1 PetroChina
• 7.2 Sinopec
• 7.3 CNOOC
• 7.4 SunTech

List of Figures:

• Figure 3-1: Global - Energy Consumption (in Billion Tons of Oil Equivalent), 2002-2011F
• Figure 3-2: Global - Energy Mix (%), 2004
• Figure 4-1: China - Energy Consumption (in Million Tons of Oil Equivalent), 2001-2006E
• Figure 4-2: China - Energy Mix (%), 2005
• Figure 4-3: China - Coal Consumption (in Million Metric Tons), 2001-2006E
• Figure 4-4: China - Petroleum Consumption (in Thousand Barrels/day) 2001-2006E
• Figure 4-5: China - Natural Gas Consumption (in Million Cubic Meter), 2001-2006E
• Figure 4-6: China - Solar Cell Production (in MWp), 2000-2005
• Figure 4-7: China - Cumulative Installed Capacity of Wind Energy (in MW), 2000-2005
• Figure 4-8: China - Ethanol Production (in Million Metric Tons), 2004, 2005 & 2010F
• Figure 4-9: China - Livestock Statistics (in Million), 2004-2006
• Figure 5-1: China - Electricity Consumption (in Billion Kwh), 2001-2006E
• Figure 6-1: China - GDP Growth (%), 1990-2005
• Figure 6-2: China - Oil Imports (in Million Tons), 2005 & 2006
• Figure 6-3: China - Electricity Consumption Comparison with US & Japan (in kWh/Head), 2002-2006E
• Figure 6-4: US & China - Projected Carbon Emissions (in Million Metric Tons Carbon), 1990 to 2030
• Figure 6-5: China - Forecast for Carbon Emissions from Coal (in Million Metric Tons Carbon), 2010, 2015, 2020 & 2025
• Figure 6-6: China - Forecast for Energy Consumption (in Million Tons of Oil Equivalent), 2007-2011
• Figure 6-7: China - Forecast for Petroleum Consumption (in Thousand Barrels/day), 2007-2011
• Figure 6-8: China - Forecast for Natural Gas Consumption (in Billion Cubic Meters), 2007-2011

List of Tables:

• Table 3-1: Global - Energy Consumption by Region (in Million Tons of Oil Equivalent), 2002-2011F
• Table 3-2: Global - Energy Consumption by Region (in Kg Oil Equivalent/Head), 2002-2011F
• Table 3-3: Global - Petroleum Consumption by Region (in Barrel/day), 2002-2011F
• Table 3-4: Global - Coal Consumption by Region (in Million Metric Tons), 2002-2011F
• Table 3-5: Global - Natural Gas Consumption by Region (in Billion Cubic Meters), 2002-2011F
• Table 4-1: China - Supply & Demand of mc-Si (in Tons), 2004-2006E
• Table 4-2: China - Production & Capacity of SG-Si Ingots (in Tons), 2005
• Table 4-3: China - Solar Cell Production Capacity (in MW), 2005
• Table 4-4: China - Solar Cell Manufacturing Capacity (in MW), 2006E
• Table 4-5: China - Assembly Capacity of Solar Module (in MW), 2005
• Table 4-6: China - Distribution of Wind Energy (in MW) & Number of Turbines, 2005
• Table 4-7: China - Wind Turbine Market (in Million US$), 2003, 2004 & 2005
• Table 4-8: China - Current & Future of Denatured Ethanol Production (in Million Tons/year), 2005 & 2007F
• Table 4-9: China - Ethanol Import & Export (in Thousand Tons), 2001-2005
• Table 4-10: China - Ethanol Export by Destination (in Thousand Liters), 2001-2005
• Table 4-11: China - Ethanol Import by Destination (in Thousand Liters), 2001-2005
• Table 4-12: China - Corn Statistics (Oct. 2001 to Oct. 2006)
• Table 4-13: China - Sugar Statistics (in Thousand Metric Tons), Oct. 2001 to Oct. 2006
• Table 4-14: China - Wheat Statistics (July 2001 to July 2006)
• Table 4-15: China - Sorghum Statistics (July 2001 to July 2006)
• Table 4-16: China - Rapeseed Statistics (Oct. 2001 to Oct. 2006E)
• Table 7-1: PetroChina - Financial Overview (in Million US$), 2003-2005
• Table 7-2: Sinopec - Financial Overview (in Million US$), 2003-2005
• Table 7-3: CNOOC - Financial Overview (in Million US$), 2003-2005
• Table 7-4: SunTech - Financial Overview (in Million US$), 2003-2005