Abstract
Report Details
- Total pages: 38
- Exhibits: 23
- Case studies: 4
Report Overview
In March 2007, Deutsche Telekom cancelled T-One, its dual-mode WiFi-GSM service in Germany, which it had launched in August 2006. The termination of T-One raises a number of questions for service providers looking to launch fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) offerings. Why did T-One fail? Was it merely a DT marketing failure, did it have something to do with the German market, or are FMC services not quite ready yet? Has FMC worked for any of the providers that have introduced it commercially? Is it necessary for MNOs to rush FMC, especially for the benefit of providers that have an eye on mobile and fixed Internet services as the next opportunity for revenue growth?
This report seeks to answer these and other key questions pertaining to both the present and future of MNO-driven FMC. Our answers and views are based on our discussions with service providers and vendors, as well as ongoing tracking and analysis of convergence technologies and services across the globe. The following points provide the overall framework for our analysis:
Key Objectives
- The terms “convergence” and “fixed-mobile services” generate much confusion. The report positions fixed-mobile convergence within the concept of fixed-mobile services and provides the top-level framework for effective analysis.
- To assess the level of urgency for FMC deployment, the report analyzes the operating performance of mobile operators in 90 markets globally, identifying those that face nonexistent-to-negative subscriber and revenue growth in the next five years. We also review the state of fixed-mobile substitution.
- The report provides forward-looking answers to a set of crucial questions. What are the business drivers for MNOs to roll out FMC services? How urgent is the need for FMC, especially for providers eyeing mobile and fixed Internet services as the next revenue opportunity?
- Does FMC work? What impact, if any, has it had on the performance of operators that have launched FMC services? Our performance analysis assesses FMC services that have been discontinued or launched in the past 12 months.
- What is the future of FMC? What are the convergence service options available to service providers that are not prepared to deal with the potentially disruptive nature of existing FMC technologies? What if FMC is not ready, or is unattractive?
- We close our report with a forecast of FMC subscriber adoption and revenue at a global level.
Audience
Mobile Network Operators
The report will help you understand the market readiness of existing FMC technologies, what drives FMC rollouts globally, and how the new services are positioned and priced. Through the case studies, it assesses the impact of commercial FMC offerings on adoption and traffic, as well as the reasons behind the successes or failures.
Equipment Vendors
The report will help you evaluate the market potential of different types of convergence technologies in developed and emerging markets. It identifies the markets and players that will drive FMC in the next five years and presents the first performance results of commercial UMA and home zone services.
Financial Institutions and Investors
By evaluating the technology and the drivers behind FMC, the report will help you determine the business case of service providers, including the impact of FMC launches on demand and traffic. Besides analyzing the performance of FMC services to date, we provide a top-level forecast of FMC subscriber adoption and revenue.
Table of Contents
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Executive Summary
Introduction
Section 1: Distinguishing Fixed-Mobile Substitution, Replacement, and Convergence
- From FMS to FMC
Section 2: Can MNOs Afford to Wait for FMC?
- MNOs under Pressure: Looking for Growth, Wherever It May Be
- Looking for Solutions (1): Emerging Markets: Attractive, but No Longer Cheap
- Looking for Solutions (2): Mobile Data, So Close- Yet so Far
- Looking for Solutions (3): Fixed-Mobile Substitution Is the Low-hanging Fruit
- Final Incentive: Fixed Telcos Are Pushing FMC More Aggressively Than MNOs
- The Case Against FMC: Do MNOs Only Need to Slash Prices?
- MNOs Offering Broadband: Another Option that Has a Ways to Go
- The MNO Case for FMC: The Cost Side of Traffic Spikes, the Flip Side of Low Price Strategies, and the Profitability of Mobile Corporate Services
- Our Call: MNOs Can' t Afford to Be Complacent About FMC
Section 3: FMC Technologies: What Is Ready, What Is Not
- The Readiness Factor: Disruptiveness and CPE Availability
- Our Conclusion: Not Reassuring
- Option Available Now: Home Zone/Cell ID: Ideal Fixed-Mobile Substitution Technology for Voice18
- Option Available Later: Femtocells: Fixed Indoor Coverage and Enabling Mobile Broadband in the Home
- Femtocell Readiness: Horizon 2008, and the Set-top Box Opportunity
- UMA: The Most Mature FMC Technology, but Still a Lot of Convincing to Do
- Dual-Mode SIP: Pre-IMS, Fixed-centric for now, and an Alternative to UMA
- Voice Call Continuity: Horizon 2008-09
- Conclusion: Mobile-centric Consumer FMC Choices Are Down to Home Zone and UMA Today and Femtocells Tomorrow
Section 4: FMC Case Study Analysis: What Has Worked, What Hasn' t
- CASE STUDY: FMC Initial Failures: T-One, Onephone, Unica, and Others
- CASE STUDY: Aggressive FMC Push by Orange Starts Paying Off
- CASE STUDY: FMC Helps Brasil Telecom' s Fixed and Mobile
Section 5: What Operators Can Do While Waiting for FMC, and FMC Next Steps
- FMC: A Matter of When, Not If
- Despite Slow FMC Start, Here Is why We Think Early Launches Are Good
- One Size Will Not Fit All
- However, the Question Remains: What to Do in the Meantime?
- CASE STUDY: Commercial Convergence Services
Section 6: FMC Adoption and Revenue Forecasts
- FMC Subscribers- Slow Initial Growth
- Next for FMC: Competing with Triple- and Quad-play for the Household
- FMC Revenue- Suitably Small
