Abstract
During the period 2007-2012, the worldwide mobile subscriber base is expected
to increase by 1.8 billion. Around 67 percent of these new subscribers, i.e.,
a little above 1.2 billion subscribers, are expected to come from just 10
fast-growing country markets worldwide. Of these top 10 growth markets, nine
have been identified as high-volume, low-ARPU [Average-Revenue-Per-User]
emerging mobile markets with significant potential in the next five years. Our
research identified only ONE truly wealthy nation among this top 10, the
United States of America, home to one of the highest ARPU rates in the world,
yet also the 4th biggest growth market of the 2007-2012 period.
The US is expected to add more than 65 million mobile subscribers to the
worldwide subscriber base in the period 2007-2012. This might look relatively
insignificant compared to the massive numbers expected to be added from
high-growth markets such as China (542 million) and India (282 million), but
what makes the US mobile market an interesting market to study is the
observation that a new mobile subscriber in the US is expected to generate
between three and 13 times as much revenue expected from a new mobile
subscriber in China, India and the other emerging markets in the top 10 in
2012.
Compounding this aggressive growth is the high ARPU network operators in the
US achieve from their subscribers. Unlike many other mature mobile markets,
where ARPU is in slow decline, in the US ARPU is forecast to remain high, even
increasing slightly from 2007 levels as we move forward over the next 4 or 5
years. While the US will contribute only around 5.5 percent to the total
number of new subscribers that are expected from the top 10 markets in the
period 2007-2012, in terms of revenue, the country will account for around
25.2 percent of the total mobile service revenues generated by these 10
markets in 2012.
This significant revenue potential makes the US mobile market a very important
market in the worldwide scenario.
This report probes into the opportunities presented by the US mobile market
through a holistic understanding of the current state of the market and its
expected future movement.
The key features of this report include the following:
- A detailed snapshot of the US mobile market comparing key parameters such
as mobile subscriber base, revenue and ARPU for the years 2006 and 2007.
- Demographic segmentation of the current US mobile subscriber base. This
section provides a break-out of the US mobile subscriber base by age and
ethnicity. It also provides some insights into consumer behaviour.
- Study of the competitive landscape in the US mobile market, covering
subscriber shares, revenue shares, voice and data revenue analysis, and ARPU
analysis for major US operators. This section also provides a brief snapshot
of major US MVNOs [mobile virtual network operators].
- A look into pricing trends and strategies adopted by operators to combat
increasing competition.
- Forecasts for subscriber base, revenue and ARPU for the period 2007-2012,
including estimated growth of mobile penetration in different age groups
during the same period. This section also looks into the possibility of the US
mobile market saturating in the near future.
- An overview of mobile technologies prevalent in the US market and
information on market consolidation, along with a perspective on emerging
technologies and the likely future impact of consolidation.
For comparative purposes the report also includes a brief overview of the
Canadian mobile market, complete with key data points such as subscriber
numbers, MNO market shares, ARPU figures and more.
Table of Contents
- Introduction
- The US in the Worldwide Mobile Market
- Current US Market Scenario
- US Mobile Subscribers' Demographics
- The US Mobile Subscriber Base- Segmented by Age
- The US Mobile Subscriber Base- Segmented by Ethnicity
- US Market Competitive Landscape
- Voice and Data Revenue Analysis for Major Operators
- ARPU Analysis for Major Operators
- The US MVNO Landscape
- Pricing Trends and Strategies
- Voice Services Pricing
- Data Services Pricing
- Handset Pricing
- Technologies in the US Mobile Market
- Consolidation in the US Mobile Market
- The Future of the US Mobile Market
- Subscribers, Revenue and ARPU Forecasts
- Changing Subscriber Demographics
- Possible Saturation of the US Mobile Market
- Changing Mobile Technology
- Future Consolidation in the US Mobile Market
- The Canadian Mobile Market
- Conclusion
- Appendices
- Glossary
- Portio Research Classifications
- Companies Mentioned in this Report
- About the Authors
- Also available from Portio Research Limited
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Contribution of Top 10 Markets to Net Subscriber Additions
(2007-2012)
- Figure 2: Top 10 Mobile Markets- Subscriber Additions (2007-2012)
vis-à-vis Revenue Contribution (2012)
- Figure 3: Worldwide Mobile Subscribers (in Million, 2007-2012)
- Figure 4: Geographical Distribution- Net Subscriber Additions (In Million,
2007-2012)
- Figure 5: North America- Split of Net Subscriber Additions (In Percent,
2007-2012)
- Figure 6: The US- Contribution to Worldwide Mobile Service Revenue (In
Percent, 2007 and 2012)
- Figure 7: The US- Contribution to Worldwide Voice Revenue (In Percent,
2007 and 2012)
- Figure 8: The US- Contribution to Worldwide Mobile Data Service Revenue
(In Percent, 2007 and 2012)
- Figure 9: The US- Mobile Subscribers & Mobile Penetration (2006 and 2007)
- Figure 10: The US- Handset Sales by Operators as Percentage of Total
Mobile Revenue (2006 and 2007)
- Figure 11: The US- Data Revenue as Percentage of Mobile Service Revenue
(2006 and 2007)
- Figure 12: The US- Voice Revenue and Data Revenue (In USD Billion, 2006
and 2007)
- Figure 13: The US- Voice-Data Split of Total Service Revenue (In Percent,
2006 and 2007)
- Figure 14: The US- Voice, Data and Overall ARPU (In USD, 2006 and 2007)
- Figure 15: The US- Contribution of Age Segments to Total Population (In
Percent, 2007)
- Figure 16: The US- Contribution of Age Segments to Mobile Subscriber Base
(2007)
- Figure 17: The US- Concentration of the US Mobile Subscriber Base
Vis-à-Vis Age Brackets (In Percent, 2007)
- Figure 18: The US- Distribution of Population By Race (In Percent, 2007)
- Figure 19: The US- Distribution of Mobile Subscriber Base By Race (In
Percent, 2007)
- Figure 20: The US- Usage of Different Data Services as per Ethnicity (In
Percent, December 2007)
- Figure 21: The US- Market Share of MNOs by Subscribers (In Percent, 2006
and 2007)
- Figure 22: The US- Growth of Subscriber Base of Major Operators (In
Million, 2006 and 2007)
- Figure 23: The US- Growth in Mobile Service Revenue of Major Operators (In
USD Billion, 2006 and 2007)
- Figure 24: The US - Y-o-Y Growth in Voice Revenue of Major Operators (In
Percent, 2007)
- Figure 25: The US- Voice Revenue Split by Operators (In Percent, 2006 and
2007)
- Figure 26: The US- Voice Traffic Split by Operators (In Percent, 2006 and
2007)
- Figure 27: The US- Extent of Usage of Data Services (In Percent, January
2007)
- Figure 28: The US- Break-out of SMS Traffic by Major Operators (In
Percent, 2007)
- Figure 29: The US- Data Revenue Split by Operators (In Percent, 2006 and
2007)
- Figure 30: The US- Growth of Monthly ARPU of Major Operators (In USD, 2006
and 2007)
- Figure 31: The US- Voice ARPU for Operators (In USD, 2006 and 2007)
- Figure 32: The US- Monthly Data ARPU for Operators (In USD, 2006 and 2007)
- Figure 33: The US- Pre-paid & Post-paid Subscribers (In Percent, 2004 and
2010)
- Figure 34: The US- Average Revenue Generated Per Minute (In USD, 2006-2007)
- Figure 35: The US- Average Subsidy as a Percentage of Handset List Price
(In Percent, 2007)
- Figure 36: The US- Historical Mobile Technology Development (1993-2007)
- Figure 37: The US- Effect of Consolidation on Market Share by Subscribers
(2001 and 2007)
- Figure 38: The US- Mobile Subscriber Base (In Million, 2007-2012)
- Figure 39: The US- Total Mobile Revenue (In USD Billion, 2007-2012)
- Figure 40: The US- Mobile Service Revenue and Equipment Sales (In USD
Billion, 2007-2012)
- Figure 41: The US- Voice-Data Split (In Percent, 2007 and 2012)
- Figure 42: The US- Voice Revenue (In USD Billion, 2007-2012)
- Figure 43: The US- Voice Revenue as Percentage of Service Revenue
(2007-2012)
- Figure 44: The US- Data Revenue (In USD Billion, 2007-2012)
- Figure 45: The US- Mobile Data Revenue as Percentage of Service Revenue
(2007-2012)
- Figure 46: The US- Voice, Data and Overall ARPU (In USD, 2007 and 2012)
- Figure 47: The US- CAGR of Different Age Segments (In Percent, 2007- 2012)
- Figure 48: The US- Contribution of Age Segments to Total Population (In
Percent, 2007 and 2012)
- Figure 49: The US- Contribution of Age Segments to Subscriber Base (In
Percent, 2007 and 2012)
- Figure 50: The US- CAGR of Population and Mobile Subscriber Base by
Different Age Segments (In Percent, 2007- 2012)
- Figure 51: The US- Mobile Penetration (In Percent, 2007-2012)
- Figure 52: The US- Split of Subscriber Base by Technology (In Percent,
2007 and 2010)
- Figure 53: AT&T- Split of Subscribers by Technology (In Percent, 2007-2010)
- Figure 54: Sprint Nextel- Split of Subscribers by Technology (In Percent,
2007-2010)
- Figure 55: Canada- Market Share by Subscribers (In Percent, 2006 and 2007)
- Figure 56: Comparison of SMS Uptake in the US and Canada- 2006 and 2007
- Figure 57: Canada- Voice-Data Split of Total Service Revenue (In Percent,
2006 and 2007)
- Figure 58: The US Mobile Market Scenario (In Percent, 2007 and 2012)
- Figure 59: The US- Under 10 Year Age Group Mobile Subscriber Base (In
Million, 2007-2012)
- Figure 60: The US- 35-44 Years Age Group Mobile Subscriber Base (In
Million, 2007-2012)
- Figure 61: The US- Above 60 Years Age Group Mobile Subscriber Base (In
Million, 2007-2012)
- Figure 62: The US Mobile Market Scenario as per Ethnicity (In Percent,
2007E)
List of Tables
- Table 1: The US- List of Networks used by MNOs
- Table 2: Calling Plans of US operators (May 2007)
- Table 3: Consolidation History of the US Mobile Market
- Table 4: The US- Mobile Subscriber Base by Different Age Segments (In
Million, 2007-2012)
- Table 5: The US- Subscriber Growth Rate (In Percent, 2007-2012)
- Table 6: Canada- List of Networks used by Operators
- Table 7: Canada- Wireless Subscriber Base (In Million, 2006- 2007)
- Table 8: The US vs. Canada- MOU and Average Revenue Per Minute (October,
2007)
- Table 9: Canada- Monthly ARPU of Major Operators (in USD, 2007)
|
