Abstract
The continuation in fixed-to-mobile substitution (FMS)
The move towards mobile both in terms of lines and calls as a replacement for fixed PSTN voice calling will continue. The ubiquity of mobile means it will become the primary voice communication device in Europe over the next decade. It is our view that FMS will continue unabated at a call level, although the numbers that cut the cord (dispose of their fixed line altogether) will stabilise in developed/mature markets in the short term, and in emerging markets in the longer term. The need for Internet access will remain a strong driver in retaining fixed lines in countries with no naked DSL available, although mobile technologies are expected to mature and so provide a wireless broadband experience
The increasing popularity of VoIP
VoIP continues to grow in popularity, although there is a major discrepancy between registered and actual users - the former is much higher than the latter. Hence it is dangerous to extrapolate call volumes based on subscriber numbers.
VoIP comes in three flavours: direct access (voice over broadband as offered by Yahoo in Japan); indirect access (voice over broadband and public Internet, as offered by Vonage); and soft-client (software-enabled voice on a PDA, PC or gaming console using a headset, for example Skype). With both direct and indirect access there are subscription fees, but not for soft-client applications. In all three variants all on-net calling (VoIP-to-VoIP customers of the same supplier) is free, although off-net (calls that break out of the Internet to non-VoIP customers) are charged.
The established trend in VoIP growth will continue, although there is evidence to suggest that a large proportion of those customers in mature markets that want VoIP services now have it. We anticipate Group 2 markets will become similar in nature to Group 1 markets during the period covered by this study.
Table of Contents
KEY MESSAGES
- VOICE CALL VOLUMES RISE AS PRICES FALL
SCOPE
- VOICE: A VISION OF THE FUTURE
- DEFINING THE MARKET
KEY DRIVERS
- TECHNOLOGY, CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR AND SERVICE SUPPLIERS
- A PROLIFERATION OF TECHNOLOGIES
- FIXED BROADBAND
- NAKED DSL
- WIFI
- WIMAX (FIXED AND MOBILE)
- 3G AND 4G
- FIXED-MOBILE CONVERGENCE (FMC)
- NEXT-GENERATION NETWORKS (NGNS)
- CHANGING CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR
- CUSTOMERS ARE MAKING MORE - NOT LESS - VOICE CALLS
- THE CONTINUATION IN FIXED-TO-MOBILE SUBSTITUTION (FMS)
- THE INCREASING POPULARITY OF VOIP
- THE EMERGENCE OF MESSAGE-VOICE SUBSTITUTION (MVS)
- MULTIPURPOSE DEVICE (MPD) VOICE SUBSTITUTION
- A PROLIFERATION OF SERVICE SUPPLIERS
VOICE FORECASTS
- CONNECTIONS: A MIXED PICTURE
- GROUP 1 COUNTRIES
- GROUP 2 COUNTRIES
- VOLUME/MINUTES: CONTINUING TO GROW
- GROUP 1 COUNTRIES
- GROUP 2 COUNTRIES
- PRICES: CONTINUING TO FALL
- FIXED WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE INEXORABLY
- FIXED VOIP CALL PRICES WILL FALL LITTLE
- MOBILE PRICES WILL FALL FASTER THAN FIXED
- MOBILE VOIP CALL PRICES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND TO MOBILE PRICES
- REVENUES: PEAK IN 2008 AND DECLINE THEREAFTER
- GROUP 1 COUNTRIES
- GROUP 2 COUNTRIES
TABLES:
- TABLE 1: IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVERS ON VOICE CALL VOLUMES
- TABLE 2: IMPACT OF CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR AS A DRIVER ON VOICE VOLUMES
- TABLE 3: IMPACT OF NEW SERVICE PROVIDERS AS DRIVERS OF VOICE VOLUMES
FIGURES:
- FIGURE 1: COMMUNICATIONS CONNECTIONS (LINES) IN EUROPE 2007-2017 (BY TECHNOLOGY)
- FIGURE 2: COMMUNICATIONS CONNECTIONS IN GROUP 1 COUNTRIES 2007-2017 (BY TECHNOLOGY)
- FIGURE 3: COMMUNICATIONS CONNECTIONS IN GROUP 2 COUNTRIES 2007-2017 (BY TECHNOLOGY)
- FIGURE 4: VOICE CALL MINUTES IN EUROPE 2007-2017 (BY TECHNOLOGY)
- FIGURE 5: GROUP 1: VOICE CALL MINUTES 2007-2017 (BY TECHNOLOGY)
- FIGURE 6: GROUP 2: VOICE CALL MINUTES 2007-2017 (BY TECHNOLOGY)
- FIGURE 7: FIXED, MOBILE AND VOIP CALL PRICES IN EUROPE 2007-2017
- FIGURE 8: EUROPEAN VOICE CALL REVENUES 2007-2017 (BY TECHNOLOGY)
- FIGURE 9: VOICE CALL REVENUES IN GROUP 1 COUNTRIES 2007-2017 (BY TECHNOLOGY)
- FIGURE 10: VOICE CALL REVENUES IN GROUP 2 COUNTRIES 2007-2017 (BY TECHNOLOGY)
