中國的3G市場

This report analyses the development of China' s 3G telecom market, and provides a market update and forecast as of the beginning of 2008.

We will provide overviews and business development model analyses of the current status of three major 3G technologies - TD-SCDMA, WCDMA and CDMA2000. We will pay particular attention to the domestically developed TD-SCDMA standard, as this is expected to be the major area of 3G development in China for the next few years. China Mobile conducted large-scale TD-SCDMA equipment bidding and network construction in 2007, and we will present an updated TD-SCDMA value chain analysis based on this network construction as well as recent developments.

In addition to being a major 3G standard in its own right, TD-SCDMA will also determine the timing of 3G license issuance for all other standards. We believe that it will take most of 2008 for China Mobile to optimize its current TD-SCDMA networks and to further test network features and terminal functionality. China' s long-awaited 3G licenses will only be released once TD-SCDMA network stability is judged to be satisfactory, with licenses being released either together or one by one with small time intervals.

We will also pay very close attention to telecom industry restructuring, another important factor influencing China' s 3G market landscape and licenses release schedule. We believe that reorganization is very likely to take place in 2008, in order to improve competition in the industry and create multi-service telecom operators.

Based on our analysis of the most likely telecom operator restructuring and 3G licenses distribution scenarios, we will make quantitative forecasts of the prospects for China' s 3G market. Ultimately, we believe that TD-SCDMA will eventually be able to make a successful commercial debut but that there will also be space for other standards to develop in China. China' s healthy macroeconomic environment will mean that the country will enjoy a strong 3G ecosystem.

1. Executive Summary

2. TD-SCDMA

• 2.1 Market Overview
• 2.2 TD-SCDMA Network Trials Development
• 2.3 Value Chain Analysis
  • 2.3.1 TD-SCDMA Core Network Vendors
  • 2.3.2 TD-SCDMA Radio Access Network Vendors
  • 2.3.3 TD-SCDMA Chipset Vendors
  • 2.3.4 TD-SCDMA Terminal Vendors
• 2.4 Business Development Model

3. WCDMA

• 3.1 Market Overview
• 3.2 Business Development Model

4. CDMA2000 1X

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Business Development Model

5. Telecom Operator Restructuring and Forecast

• 5.1 Industry Restructuring Models and Likely Progress in 2008
• 5.2 3G Market Forecast

Norson Insight

• Figure 2-1: The TD-SCDMA Industry Chain
• Figure 2-2: Core Network Market Share in 10-City TD-SCDMA Trial Public Bidding
• Figure 2-3: Four partnerships of TD-SCDMA equipment vendors
• Figure 2-4: Radio Access Network Market Share in 10-City TD-SCDMA Trial Public Bidding
• Figure 2-5: Cooperation in TD-SCDMA Chipset Value Chain
• Figure 2-6: TD-SCDMA Services Type Developing Analysis
• Figure 2-7: TD-SCDMA Service Models Developing Analysis
• Figure 3-1: WCDMA Services Type Developing Analysis
• Figure 3-2: WCDMA Service Models Developing Analysis
• Figure 4-1: China Unicom CDMA Network CAPEX and Growth (2003-2007)
• Figure 4-2: CDMA2000 Services Type Developing Analysis
• Figure 4-3: CDMA2000 Service Models Developing Analysis
• Figure 5-1: Telecom Operator Restructuring Scenarios
• Figure 5-2: Chinese 3G Subscriber Number Developing Forecast (2008-2012)
• Figure 5-3: Chinese 3G Network Investment Forecast (2007-2012)
• Figure 5-4: Chinese 3G Terminal Demand Forecast (2007-2012)
• Figure 5-5: Chinese 3G Terminal Market Forecast (2007-2012)