美國麵包市場

Abstract

This report focuses on the fresh, frozen and refrigerated bread market. Besides presenting sales data on a segment-by-segment basis, the report analyzes a range of topics with an eye towards how this market will evolve, including the following:

• How have diet trends influenced the bread market and are these effects long-lasting?
• What are consumers looking for when they buy bread? Do consumers understand and believe the nutritional claims proliferating in this category?
• How have rising prices impacted consumer choices in this market?
• How big is the bread market and how are individual segments performing? What factors are driving growth?
• What strategies can bread manufacturers and marketers implement to combat the decline in bread usage? Reposition bread as a snack? Take back breakfast?
• What are the opportunities for private label brands in a price-conscious environment?
• How are consumers shopping in this category? Few consumers identify themselves as brand loyal but approximately 40% buy the same brand(s) regularly.

Table of Contents

• Scope and Themes
• Definition
• Data sources
• Sales data
• Consumer survey data
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms
• Executive Summary
• Bread market reached $18.5 billion in 2007
• Rising prices may lead to bargain hunting
• Fragmented market
• Innovation focused on healthy and premium offerings
• Bread consumers want it all--nutrition, taste, and value
• Nutrition and health
• Taste
• Price
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points
• Bread still recovering from low-carbohydrate diet fad
• Sales gains driven by higher prices
• Bread forecast
  • Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at current prices, 2002-12
  • Figure 3: Total U.S. sales and forecast of bread, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
• Wal-Mart sales
• Competitive Context
• Key points
• Increase in dollar sales driven by price increases
• Impact of low-carbohydrate diet fad is twofold
• Expanded meal options both in and outside of the grocery store
  • Figure 4: FDMx volume and dollar sales of fresh bread, 2002-07
  • Figure 5: U.S. FDM sales of refrigerated foods, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-07
• Segment Performance
• Key points
• Wholegrain movement rolls into new segments
  • Figure 6: New bread products with "wholegrain" claims, 2002-07
  • Figure 7: FDMx U.S. sales and forecast of bread at current prices, by segment, 2002-12
  • Figure 8: FDMx U.S. sales of bread, by segment, 2005 and 2007
• Segment Performance--Fresh Sandwich Bread
• Key points
• Volume sales continue to decline while bread prices skyrocket
  • Figure 9: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of fresh sandwich bread, 2002-07
  • Figure 10: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of fresh sandwich bread, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Fresh Rolls, Buns and Croissants
• Key points
• Volume declines turn around in 2007
  • Figure 11: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, 2002-07
  • Figure 12: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Tortillas and Taco Shells
• Key points
• Product innovation and popularity of Mexican cuisine drive growth
• Diet trends have lesser impact compared to other types of bread
  • Figure 13: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of tortillas and taco shells, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Bagels and English Muffins
• Key points
• Sales rebound, thanks to end of low-carbohydrate diet craze and innovation
  • Figure 14: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of English muffins, 2002-07
  • Figure 15: U.S. FDMx volume sales and average price of bagels/bialys, 2002-07
  • Figure 16: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of fresh bagels/bialys and English muffins, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Frozen and Refrigerated Breads
• Key points
• Frozen fresh-baked bread drives growth
  • Figure 17: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of frozen and refrigerated bread, 2002-12
• Retail Channels
• Key points
  • Figure 18: Bread purchases in the last two weeks, by channel, May 2008
  • Figure 19: FDMx U.S. sales of bread, by retail channel, 2005 and 2007
• Retail Channels--Supermarkets
• Key points
• Economic uncertainty provides opportunity for store brands
  • Figure 20: U.S. sales of bread in supermarkets, 2002-07
• Retail Channels--Natural Food Stores
• Key points
• Natural channel relies on niche, quality brands
  • Figure 21: Natural product supermarket retail sales of bread, at current and inlfation-adjusted prices, 52 weeks ending April, 2006-08
• Market Drivers
• Grocery prices are rising
• Private label is growing
• Economic uncertainty leads to more meals at home
  • Figure 22: Spending at restaurants compared to last year, by age, January 2008
• Aging population seeks healthier, pricier products
  • Figure 23: Population, by age, 2002-12
• Smaller households result in lower bread sales
  • Figure 24: Households, by size, 1996-2006
• Consumers turning to healthier products
  • Figure 25: Purchasing of bread with health claims in the last year, May 2008
• Leading Companies
• George Weston Bakeries leads market in sales
• Sara Lee fights to grow market share
• Interstate Bakeries Corp. seeks a buyer
• Flowers Foods watches sales blossom
• Bimbo USA leverages healthy eating trend
• Campbell' s Pepperidge Farm outpaces the competition
  • Figure 26: Sales of leading bread companies, 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Fresh Bread
• Key points
• Product innovation is key to success
• Private label poised for growth
  • Figure 27: FDM brand sales of sandwich bread in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Fresh Rolls, Buns and Croissants
• Key points
• Whole grains hit the segment in full force
  • Figure 28: FDMx brand sales of fresh rolls in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Tortillas and Taco Shells
• Key points
• Leading brands drive innovation
  • Figure 29: FDMx brand sales of tortillas in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--English Muffins, Bagels and Bialys
• Key points
• George Weston Bakeries dominates the segment and continues to grow
• Small player Oroweat makes huge gains
  • Figure 30: FDMx brand sales of English muffins and bagels/bialys in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Frozen and Refrigerated Bread
• Key points
• Private label makes strong gains
• Share shifts among leading suppliers
  • Figure 31: FDMx brand sales of frozen and refrigerated bread in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Qualities
• Pepperidge Farm
• Sara Lee
• Nature' s Own
• Oroweat
• Innovation and Innovators
• Key points
  • Figure 32: Top ten companies, ranked by number of new bread and bread products, 2006-May 2008
• Wholegrain leads new products
  • Figure 33: New bread and bread products featuring "wholegrain" claim, 2003-08
• Functional bread is here
• Natural and organic bread
• Portion control arrives
• Private Label
  • Figure 34: New product claims for bread and bread products, 2006-08
• Advertising and Promotion
• Overview
• Nature' s Own
  • Figure 35: Nature' s Own television ad, 2007
  • Figure 36: Nature' s Own television ad, 2007
• Healthy Life
  • Figure 37: Healthy Life television ad, 2007
• Bread Usage
• Key points
• Usage of bread products
  • Figure 38: Usage of bread products, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
  • Figure 39: Usage of bread products, by presence of children in household, January-November 2007
• Trended usage of bread products
  • Figure 40: Usage of bread products, 2003-07
• Types of bread used
  • Figure 41: Types of bread used, 2003-07
• Amount of Bread Used in Household
• Key points
• Trended frequency of use
• Volume of bread used in household by key demographics
• Households with children eat more loaves of bread per week
  • Figure 42: Number of loaves consumed by household in last week, by presence of children in household, January-November 2007
• Black and Hispanic consumers eat more bread per week than average
  • Figure 43: Number of loaves consumed by household in last week, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
• Lower-income households are heavy bread consumers
  • Figure 44: Number of loaves consumed by household in last week, by household income, January-November 2007
• Brand Preferences for Bread
• Key points
• Popularity of bread brands
  • Figure 45: Use of bread brands, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
• Brand Preferences for English Muffins
• Key points
• Popularity of English muffin brands
  • Figure 46: Use of English muffin brands, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
• Attitudes and Motivations
• Key points
• Purchase of bread with health claims
  • Figure 47: Types of bread purchased in the last year, by age, May 2008
  • Figure 48: Types of bread purchased in the last year, by region, May 2008
• Price is a barrier for BFY products
  • Figure 49: Types of bread purchased in the last year, by household income, May 2008
• What bread consumers want
  • Figure 50: Most important qualities when purchasing bread, May 2008
• Perceptions of brand names vs. Private label bread
• What are consumers buying? Private label or name brand?
  • Figure 51: Types of bread purchased in last year, by age, May 2008
• Value drives private label bread purchases
  • Figure 52: Perceptions of branded and private label bread, May 2008
• Consumers see prices increasing and are cutting back on spending
  • Figure 53: Perceptions of branded and private label bread, May 2008
• Consumer attitudes about health and nutrition
• Americans are trying to eat better but many are confused
  • Figure 54: Attitudes toward health/nutrition of bread, May 2008
• Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
• Trended bread consumption in the last week
  • Figure 69: Mean number of loaves consumed by household in last week, 2002-07
  • Figure 70: Number of loaves consumed by household in last week, by age, January-November 2007
• Types of bread used
  • Figure 71: Types of bread used, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
• Brands of bread used
  • Figure 72: Use of bread brands, by income, January-November 2007
• Appendix: Trade Associations