美國碳酸飲料市場

Abstract

This report explores the carbonated soft drinks category-going beyond discussion of market trends, segment performance and brand sales to include insight on how this mature market can maintain consumer loyalty to core brands while reaching a new and wider audience. A particular challenge in this market is the tension between the benefits of extending into new segments with line extensions and new products and the risk of diluting core brands.

You will find thoughtful discussion in topics that include:

• Who are the core customers for these products and how is their behavior changing
• How are consumers shifting their beverage choices within and outside the segment
• How are manufacturers reacting to increased competition in the beverage segment, and what should manufacturers be doing
• How important is it to protect a key brand vs. establish a new product
• Is there room for traditional CSD products in an increasingly "all natural" and "better-for-you" world
• How can manufacturers control perceptions of their brands
• How can traditional CSDs be improved
• Can marketers successfully target new consumers for established products
• How is the changing retail landscape influencing category sales and projections
• Where are consumers buying CSDs
• How changing demographics influence sales and innovations in this market
• How lifestyle changes have impacted consumer beverage choices and what potential health and wellness issues are coming to light
• What brands do adults, teens, and different ethnic groups prefer across CSD segments

Table of Contents

• Scope and Themes
• What you need to know
• Definition
• Data sources
• Sales data
• Consumer survey data
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms
• Executive Summary
• CSD market shows moderate growth, but FDMx sales continue to fall
• Carbonated drinks declining in FDMx, seltzer is growing
• Market leaders are struggling in FDMx
• Encroaching competition and bad press hurting sales, but inspiring innovation
• Health trends negatively impact sales
• Innovations will drive sales
• New products emerge but manufacturers need to protect flagship brands
• Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are trying to balance new products while leveraging key brands
• Key demographics influencing market: youth, gender, and ethnicity
• Teens and young adults are core demographic, but declining
• Current pressures on the teen market include:
• Income related to CSD consumption
• Women are leaving the category, but men are migrating to diet sodas
• Ethnicity key factor in consumption and brand choice
• Nutrition does not sell CSDs of any type
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points
• Health concerns and desire for new products are key factors for decline
  • Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2002-12
  • Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and forecast of carbonated beverages at inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
• Wal-Mart sales
• Competitive Context
• Key points
• U.S. consumers want healthier beverages
• Energy and health/function--competition and innovation driver
• PepsiCo poised for success
• Evaporated cane juice, caffeine, and natural flavor changing landscape
• Increase the natural
• And the less natural
• CSDs no longer available in schools
• Competitive beverages
  • Figure 3: U.S. sales and forecast of non-alcoholic beverages, at current prices, by segment, 2002-12
• Segment Performance
• Key points
• CSD segments are changing
  • Figure 4: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2002-12
  • Figure 5: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
• Sales of carbonated beverages, by segment
  • Figure 6: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at current prices, by segment, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Regular Carbonated Beverages
• Key points
• Regular sodas blamed for many health problems
• Competition getting stronger
• Growth depends on appealing to Hispanics, blacks, teens and adults aged 18-24
• And targeting consumers who will age out of the energy drink segment
• Sales of regular carbonated beverages
  • Figure 7: U.S. sales and forecast regular carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Diet Carbonated Beverages
• Key points
• Fear and scepticism towards artificial sweeteners is a road-block to popular acceptance
• Health benefits of diet soda are questionable
• Consumers like flavor and caffeine in diet sodas
• Sales of diet carbonated beverages
  • Figure 8: U.S. sales and forecast of diet carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2002-12
• Segment Performance--Seltzers
• Key points
• Bubbles without guilt
• Sales of tonic, seltzer, and club soda
  • Figure 9: U.S. sales and forecast of tonic, seltzer, and club soda, at current prices, 2002-12
• Retail Channels--Supermarket, Drug and Other Stores
• Key points
• Discount and supercenters continue to take share from supermarkets
• Decreased consumption reflected most in supermarkets
• Drug stores and other channels show robust growth
  • Figure 10: U.S. sales of carbonated beverages, by retail channel, 2005 and 2007
  • Figure 11: U.S. sales of carbonated beverages at supermarkets, 2002-07
  • Figure 12: U.S. sales of carbonated beverages at drug stores, 2002-07
• Retail Channels--Convenience Stores
• Key points
• Convenience stores growing in carbonated drink sales
  • Figure 13: Carbonated beverage sales in convenience stores, 2005-07
• Retail Channels--Natural Channel/Spins
• Key points
• Natural stores showing growth
  • Figure 14: Natural product supermarket retail sales of carbonated beverages, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
• Natural channel sales by segment
  • Figure 15: Natural product supermarket retail sales of carbonated beverages, by segment, 2005 and 2007
• Natural supermarket channel sales soda
  • Figure 16: Natural product supermarket retail sales of sodas, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
• Sugar-sweetened versus fruit juice-sweetened soda
  • Figure 17: Natural product supermarket retail sales of sodas, by type of sweetener, 2005 and 2007
• Organic soda sales
• Figure 18: Natural product supermarket retail sales of organic sodas, 2005 and 2007
• Natural supermarket channel sales of sparkling water
  • Figure 19: Natural product supermarket retail sales of sparkling water, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
• Brand sales
• Carbonated beverages
  • Figure 20: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, 2005 and 2007
• Sparkling water
  • Figure 21: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of sparkling water, 2005 and 2007
  • Figure 22: Natural product supermarket retail sales of carbonated beverages, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
• Market Drivers
• Health concerns
  • Figure 23: New diabetes cases, by age, 2005
  • Figure 24: Percentage of U.S. population over the age of 20 who are obese, 2001-07
  • Figure 25: Prevalence of overweight among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1999-2004
  • Figure 26: Reasons for drinking less regular soda today than a year ago, February 2007
• Healthy lifestyles
• Demographics and changing tastes
  • Figure 27: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-13
  • Figure 28: Population, by age, 2003-13
• Leading Companies
• Key points
• Leading companies diversifying into non-carbonated beverages to counter declining FDMx sales in carbonated drinks
  • Figure 29: Sales of leading carbonated beverage companies at FDMx, 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Regular Carbonated Beverages
• Key points
• Coca-Cola sees growth with Fanta and Seagram' s
• PepsiCo flag brands also falling but Mug and Sierra Mist do well
  • Figure 30: FDMx brand sales of regular carbonated beverages in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Diet Carbonated Beverages
• Key points
• Coca-Cola' s diet brands are holding steady, but growth comes from male-oriented Coke Zero
• Pepsi One was less successful but Diet Mountain Dew is going strong
• Cadbury Schweppes/Dr Pepper Snapple Group sees modest declines in FDMx sales
• What can manufacturers do to grow this segment?
• Growth requires new markets--look to men
• Persuade consumers these are safe...build a better product
• Innovation occurring among major manufacturers
  • Figure 31: FDMx brand sales of diet carbonated beverages in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Share--Seltzers
• Key points
• Seltzer on the verge of trendy
  • Figure 32: FDMx brand sales of seltzers in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
• Brand Qualities
• Key points
• Helping consumers re-embrace brands
• Mountain Dew and Dr. Pepper focus on youth
• Coke Zero and Diet Pepsi Max battle it out over young male demographic
• Cadbury licenses beverage brands to food companies...
• ...and focuses on Hispanic market
• Innovation and Innovators
• Key points
  • Figure 33: New carbonated drink products in the U.S., by company, 2002-08
  • Figure 34: New non-alcoholic drink products in the U.S., by company, 2002-08
• Pepsi' s widening carbonated beverage portfolio
• Mountain Dew Touts "Game Fuel"
• Coconut and pomegranate current flavor trends
• Less plastic, less waste
• Advertising and Promotion
• New media even for older demographic
  • Figure 35: 7UpTelevision ad, 2007
  • Figure 36: Coca-Cola Zero Television ad, 2007
  • Figure 37: Dr. Pepper Television ad, 2007
  • Figure 38: Pepsi Diet MaxTelevision ad, 2007
• Consumption Trends--Adult Consumers
• Regular colas
• Diet colas
• Other "regular" carbonated beverages
• Other "diet" carbonated beverages
• Regular soda
• Diet soda
• Key points
• Health concerns drive consumers away from carbonated drinks
• Perpetual dieting
• Women are leaving the category
  • Figure 39: Trended consumption of regular and diet soda--adults, 2002-07
  • Figure 40: Trended consumption of regular and diet cola--adults, by gender, 2002-07
  • Figure 41: Mean number carbonated beverages consumed in past seven days, by gender, age, race/ethnicity and household income, January-November 2007
  • Figure 42: Regular soda consumption current vs. one year ago, March 2008
  • Figure 43: Diet soda consumption current vs. one year ago, March 2008
  • Figure 44: Reasons for drinking less regular soda, March 2008
• Income a Key Differentiator in Consumer Choice
• Key points
• Healthy living is easier with higher incomes
  • Figure 45: Consumption of carbonated beverages, by type and income, May 2006-June 2007
  • Figure 46: Volume of consumption of carbonated beverages, by type and income, May 2006-June 2007
• Teen Consumption
• Key points
• Teens continue to be top CSD demographic
• The youngest consumers don' t drink much, but they learn fast
  • Figure 47: Consumption of carbonated drinks--children, teens and adults, by age, May 2006-June 2007
  • Figure 48: Trended consumption of regular and diet soda--teens, 2002-07
• The big drinkers in the category are moving away
  • Figure 49: Trended mean number of glasses of soda consumed per week--teens, 2002-07
• Teen brand preferences
  • Figure 50: Teen regular cola brand preferences, by gender, January-November 2007
  • Figure 51: Teen regular non-cola brand preferences, by gender, January-November 2007
  • Figure 52: Teen diet cola brand preferences, by gender, January-November 2007
  • Figure 53: Teen diet non-cola brand preferences, by gender, January-November 2007
• Race and Ethnicity
• Key points
• Culture makes a difference in carbonated beverage consumption
• Consumption decreasing/following overall trends
  • Figure 54: Consumption of carbonated beverages, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
  • Figure 55: Consumption of carbonated beverages--black respondents, 2003-07
  • Figure 56: Consumption of carbonated beverages--Hispanics, 2003-07
  • Figure 57: Mean number carbonated beverages consumed in past seven days, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
• Attitudes and Motivations
• Health beliefs
• Key points
• Black health beliefs coincide with consumption
  • Figure 58: health concerns about regular and diet soda, by race/ethnicity, march 2008
• Mothers most concerned about health
  • Figure 59: Health concerns about regular and diet soda, by moms, march 2008
• Consumption of Substitute Beverages
• Key points
• Dichotomy: Rise of sugary caffeine and pure water among teens
• Functional beverages are often CSD substitutes
  • Figure 60: Consumption of selected non-carbonated beverages, by gender, March 2008
  • Figure 61: Consumption of selected non-carbonated beverages, by age, March 2008
  • Figure 62: Trended mean number of glasses of soda and competing drinks consumed per week--adults, 2002-07
  • Figure 63: Trended mean number of glasses of soda and competing drinks consumed per week--teens, 2002-07
• Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
• Consumption data by key demographics
  • Figure 77: Trended mean number of glasses of soda consumed per week--adults, 2002-07
  • Figure 78: Consumption of carbonated drinks, by gender, May 2006-June 2007
• Changes in CSD consumption from a year ago
  • Figure 79: Changes in consumption from a year ago of regular and diet sodas, by gender, March 2008
• Consumer Regular and Diet Cola Brand Preferences by Ethnicity
  • Figure 80: Regular cola brand preferences, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
  • Figure 81: Diet cola brand preferences, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
• Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Colas by Age
  • Figure 82: Regular cola brand preferences, by age, May 2006-June 2007
• Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Colas by Income
  • Figure 83: Regular cola brand preferences, by income, May 2006-June 2007
• Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Non-Colas by Gender and Ethnicity
  • Figure 84: Regular non-cola brand preferences, by gender and race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
• Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Non-Colas by Age
  • Figure 85: Regular non-cola brand preferences, by age, May 2006-June 2007
• Consumer Brand Preferences in Diet Non-Colas by Gender and Ethnicity
  • Figure 86: Diet non-cola brand preferences, by gender and race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
• Consumer Brand Preferences in Sparkling Water, Seltzers, and Natural Sodas by Ethnicity
  • Figure 87: Sparkling water, seltzer, and natural soda preference, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
• Consumer Brand Preferences in Sparkling Water, Seltzers, and Natural Sodas by Income
  • Figure 88: Sparkling water, seltzer, and natural soda preference, by income level, May 2006-June 2007
• Appendix: Trade Associations