Abstract
This report provides market data and trends, as well as the results of an exclusive consumer survey about shelf-stable meals. Mintel isolates trends in the market, revealing consumer attitudes, concerns, and behavior that will help marketers find opportunities and maximize growth potential.
The $2.6 billion shelf-stable meals market has been in steady decline at current and constant prices for a number of reasons, including a large volume of products being sold at below-average prices, and competition from other food options that require less effort, like dining out. With the often negative health image of shelf-stable foods, consumers looking for healthier meal options are moving towards meals with fresher profiles.
In this report, shelf-stable meals include packaged prepared meals that meet the following criteria:
- Do not require refrigeration
- Do not require the addition of ingredients, except water or milk in some cases
- Require minimal heating or cooking
Included are the following types of products:
- Microwaveable entrees
- Shelf-stable prepared chili
- Shelf-stable prepared dinners and entrees
- Shelf-stable prepared pasta dishes
- Shelf-stable dry macaroni and cheese
Soup is not included in this report, but is covered in Mintel' s Soup- U.S., September 2007.
This report contains US IRI InfoScan data.
Table of Contents
- Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Resources used for The Consumer sections
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Executive Summary
- The bottom line
- Consumers willing to pay a premium for healthier offerings
- Shelf-stable meals are most often a "go-to" weekday meal
- Shelf-stable meals are favored by families with children
- Supermarkets account for largest share of sales
- Shelf-stable meals market is dominated by a few brands
- The future
- Market Drivers
- Attitudes regarding food and cooking
- Figure 1: Attitudes and behaviors regarding food and cooking, by age, May 2007
- Figure 2: Attitudes and behaviors regarding food and cooking, by race/ethnicity, May 2007
- Figure 3: Attitudes and behaviors regarding food and cooking, by presence of children, May 2007
- Figure 4: Attitudes and behaviors regarding food and cooking, by household income, May 2007
- Minority households form key consumer base
- Figure 5: Household consumption of shelf-stable meals, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Figure 6: Households, by race/Hispanic origin of householder and presence of children, 2004
- Figure 7: Mean number of shelf-stable meals consumed in household per month, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Age influences likelihood of eating shelf-stable meals
- Figure 8: Adult consumption of shelf-stable meals, by age, August 2007
- Figure 9: Population, by age, 2002 and 2007
- Shelf-stable gets a bad rep
- Figure 10: Changing attitudes towards healthy eating, 2002 and 2006
- Focus on childhood obesity puts some shelf-stable meals at odds with
parents' goals
- Figure 11: Incidence of children consuming shelf-stable meals, June 2007
- Figure 12: Population of children under age 18, by age, 2002 and 2007
- Competition from faster food
- QSRs
- Figure 13: Incidence and frequency of QSR dining in the past week, by age, April 2007
- Fast casual
- Figure 14: Frequency of fast casual orders in past month, by age, July 2007
- Market Size and Trends
- Market size
- Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales of shelf-stable meals, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Wal-Mart estimate
- Market trends
- New product introductions
- Figure 16: Shelf-stable meals new product introductions, 2002-07
- Figure 17: Top positioning claims of shelf-stable meals new product introductions, 2005-07*
- Premium products boost image and widen consumer base
- Ethnic flavors shaping the market
- Private label accounting for a growing share of new product introductions
- Figure 18: Number of private-label new product introductions, 2002-07
- Market Segmentation
- Overview
- Figure 19: FDM sales of shelf-stable meals, by type, 2005 and 2007
- Macaroni and cheese
- Figure 20: FDM sales of dry macaroni and cheese, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Prepared pasta dishes
- Figure 21: Sales of prepared pasta dishes, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce
- Figure 22: FDM sales of prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Microwaveable packaged dinners
- Figure 23: FDM sales of microwaveable packaged dinners, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Prepared dinners/entrées
- Figure 24: FDM sales of prepared dinners/entrées, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Supply Structure
- Overview
- Companies and brands
- Figure 25: FDM sales of shelf-stable meals, by manufacturer, 2004 and 2006
- Macaroni and cheese
- Figure 26: FDM sales of dry macaroni and cheese, by manufacturer and brand, 2004 and 2006
- Prepared pasta dishes
- Figure 27: FDM sales of prepared pasta dishes, by manufacturer and brand, 2004 and 2006
- Prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce
- Figure 28: FDM sales of prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce, by manufacturer and brand, 2004 and 2006
- Microwaveable packaged dinners
- Figure 29: FDM sales of microwaveable packaged dinners, by manufacturer and brand, 2004 and 2006
- Prepared dinners/entrées
- Figure 30: FDM sales of prepared dinners/entrées, by manufacturer and brand, 2004 and 2006
- Advertising and Promotion
- Marketers raise online presence
- Television advertising still a key medium
- ConAgra
- Figure 31: Chef Boyardee canned pasta meals TV ad, 2007
- Kraft
- Figure 32: Kraft Mac & Cheese TV ad, 2007
- Figure 33: Kraft Easy Mac TV ad, 2007
- Hormel
- Figure 34: Hormel Compleats microwaveable meals TV ad, 2007
- Campbell Soup Co.
- Figure 35: Campbell' s SpaghettiOs canned pasta TV ad, 2007
- Retail Distribution
- Introduction
- Figure 36: U.S. retail sales of shelf-stable meals, by channel, 2005 and 2007
- Supermarkets
- Figure 37: U.S. supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Wal-Mart
- Dollar stores
- Mass merchandisers
- Figure 38: U.S. mass merchandiser sales of shelf-stable meals, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Drug stores
- Figure 39: U.S. drug store sales of shelf-stable meals, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- The Consumer--Household Consumption of Shelf-stable Meals
- Summary
- Household consumption of shelf-stable meals--overview
- Figure 40: Household consumption of selected shelf-stable meals, 2000-06
- Figure 41: Household consumption of selected shelf-stable meals, by age of head of household, January-October 2006
- Figure 42: Household consumption of selected shelf-stable meals, by presence of children in household, January-October 2006
- Figure 43: Household consumption of shelf-stable meals, by key user cohorts, January-October 2006
- Household consumption of can/jar spaghetti/macaroni
- Types consumed
- Figure 44: Types of can/jar spaghetti/macaroni consumed, January-October 2006
- Brands consumed
- Figure 45: Brands of shelf-to-microwave dinners eaten, January-October 2006
- Volume consumed
- Figure 46: Mean volume of can/jar spaghetti/macaroni consumed in last 30 days, by age, race/ethnicity and presence of children, January-October 2006
- Household consumption of complete packaged dinner mixes
- Types consumed
- Figure 47: Types of complete packaged dinner mixes consumed, January-October 2006
- Brands
- Figure 48: Brands of complete packaged dinner mixes eaten, January-October 2006
- Volume
- Figure 49: Mean volume of complete packaged meals consumed in last 30 days, by age, race/ethnicity and presence of children, January-October 2006
- Household consumption of shelf-to-microwave dinners
- Brands consumed
- Figure 50: Brands of shelf-to-microwave dinners eaten, January-October 2006
- Volume consumed
- Figure 51: Mean volume of shelf-to-microwave dinners consumed in last 30 days, by age, household income, race/ethnicity and presence of children, January-October 2006
- Adult consumption of shelf-stable meals
- Figure 52: Adult consumption of shelf-stable meals, by gender, August 2007
- Figure 53: Adult consumption of shelf-stable meals, by age, August 2007
- Figure 54: Adult consumption of shelf-stable meals, by household income, August 2007
- Figure 55: Adult consumption of shelf-stable meals, by race/ethnicity, August 2007
- Figure 56: Adult consumption of shelf-stable meals, by number of children under age 18 in household, August 2007
- Teens' and children' s consumption of shelf-stable meals
- Types of meals consumed by teens
- Figure 57: Teen consumption of shelf-stable meals, by gender, age and race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Figure 58: Brands of canned/jarred spaghetti consumed by teens, January-October 2006
- Figure 59: Brands of microwave dinner consumed by teens, January-October 2006
- Figure 60: How often teens get to choose shelf-stable meals, by meal type, January-October 2006
- Figure 61: Volume of shelf-stable meals consumed by teens, by gender, age and race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Children
- Figure 62: Incidence of children' s consumption of shelf-stable meals, by race/ethnicity, June 2007
- The Consumer--Attitudes and Behaviors
- Summary
- How and when shelf-stable meals are consumed
- Figure 63: Occasions for eating shelf-stable meals, June 2007
- Figure 64: Occasions for eating shelf-stable meals, by race/ethnicity, June 2007
- Incidence of consuming shelf-stable meals at work
- Figure 65: Incidence of taking shelf-stable meals to work, by age, household income, race/ethnicity and presence of children, June 2007
- Age
- Household income
- Race/ethnicity
- Presence of children at home
- Attitudes and consumption behaviors
- Figure 66: Consumption attitudes and behaviors towards shelf-stable meals, by gender, June 2007
- Figure 67: Attitudes and consumption behaviors in regards to shelf-stable meals, by age, June 2007
- Figure 68: Attitudes and consumption behaviors in regards to shelf-stable meals, by race/ethnicity, August 2007
- Figure 69: Attitudes and consumption behaviors in regards to shelf-stable meals, by number of children in household, August 2007
- Children' s consumption behavior
- Figure 70: Parents' opinions on children' s consumption of shelf-stable meals, mean summary by age, June 2007
- Figure 71: Parents' opinions on children' s consumption of shelf-stable meals, mean summary by race/ethnicity, June 2007
- Consumer interest in new product formulations
- Figure 72: Somewhat or very interested in enhanced product formulations, June 2007
- Figure 73: Somewhat or very interested in enhanced product formulations, by gender, June 2007
- Willingness to pay more for premium products
- Figure 74: Willingness to pay more for selected premium meal versions, summary, August 2007
- More interesting, ethnic flavors
- Lower sodium
- Whole grains/higher fiber
- Reasons for not consuming shelf-stable meals
- Figure 75: Motivations for not consuming shelf-stable foods, by gender, June 2007
- Figure 76: Motivations for not consuming shelf-stable foods, by age, June 2007
- Figure 77: Motivations for not consuming shelf-stable foods, by household income, June 2007
- Future and Forecast
- Future trends
- More convenient options emerge
- The definition of a meal is changing
- Growth in number of young consumers may provide market boost
- Figure 78: Population, by age, 2007 and 2012
- Market forecast
- Shelf-stable meals market
- Figure 79: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of shelf-stable meals, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Figure 80: Forecast of retail sales of shelf-stable meals, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Macaroni and cheese
- Figure 81: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of macaroni and cheese, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Prepared pasta dishes
- Figure 82: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of prepared pasta dishes, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce
- Figure 83: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Microwaveable packaged dinners
- Figure 84: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of microwaveable package dinners, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Prepared dinners/entrées
- Figure 85: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of prepared dinners/entrées, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Forecast factors
- Appendix: Trade Associations
