英國不動產投資市場

Abstract

Property is no longer just about a place to live - it is an investment seen by many as providing the ideal alternative to traditional pensions. Indeed, consumer research conducted for this report reveals that one in ten UK adults are seriously considering buying an investment property in the next few years. This report examines the reasons for this huge growth in the popularity of property investment, and how, exactly, buy-to-let mortgages came to account for more than 12% of the entire mortgage market.

Trust is perhaps the key issue in the long-term savings and investment market, and this report examines the extent to which this is driving investment in property. When savers do not feel that they can rely on traditional investments - and, in the wake of the Northern Rock crisis, feel that they cannot even trust deposit accounts - then the control offered by direct property investment is hugely attractive.

This report examines the issue of trust, as well as the other factors driving investment in property. It also goes beyond direct property investment to investigate the success of more ‘hands off’ options such as property-based investment funds, and the emerging REIT (real estate investment trust) sector. There is also an in-depth examination of consumers' attitudes towards property investment, assessing current ownership, future intentions and exactly why so many people are considering becoming landlords.

Table of Contents

• Issues in the Market
• Key Issues
• Abbreviations
• Insights and Opportunities
• Hitting the mid-market
• If at first you do succeed then...don' t try again?
• REIT place, wrong time?
• Hedging their bets
• Market in Brief
• Property dominates asset holdings...
• ...but investment property remains niche
  • Figure 1: Investment ownership, June 2007
• Buy-to-let leads the way...
  • Figure 2: Value of outstanding buy-to-let mortgages, 2000-07
• ...although property funds have also had an impact
• Rapid price increases drive interest in property investment
  • Figure 3: Average mix-adjusted house prices in the UK, 1992-2007
• Still room for growth
• First safety -- and then property...
• ...but for many, a house remains ' just a home'
• Asset Ownership
• Key point summary
• Property dominates asset ownership
  • Figure 4: Ownership of selected financial and non-financial assets, UK household sector, 2006
• Lurching from boom to boom?
  • Figure 5: Composition of UK household sector' s net wealth, 1996-2006
• PPR, not BTL...
  • Figure 6: Investment ownership, June 2007
• ...but property need not be rented out to be an investment
• Seven in ten properties are owner-occupied
  • Figure 7: Total number of UK dwellings, by tenure, 1991-2006
• The Property Market -- Background
• Key point summary
• A decade-long boom
  • Figure 8: Average mix-adjusted house prices in the UK, 1992-2007
• London and the South lead the way
  • Figure 9: Average mix-adjusted house prices, by region, year-end 2006
• Northern Ireland benefits from the peace dividend
  • Figure 10: Average mix-adjusted house prices in the UK, by region, 1999-2006
• Transactions on an upwards trend
  • Figure 11: Number of property transactions in England and Wales, 1995-2007
• Predictions of a crash prove unfounded...
• ...as yet
• Broader Market Environment
• Key point summary
• Changing household structure...
  • Figure 12: Number of one-person households, as a proportion of all households, 1991-2012
• ...should drive demand for rental properties
• Stockmarket volatility pushes investors into property...
  • Figure 13: Relative performance of the housing and stock markets, 1985-2007
• ...despite long-term returns
• Low rates have favoured property investment...
  • Figure 14: The Bank of England' s base rate, November 1990-July 2007
• ...and the effective rate of interest could continue to do so
• Internal Market Environment
• Key point summary
• The credit crunch hits home
• Turmoil in the banking sector
• Lending criteria expected to tighten further...
• ...and events increase the potential of a housing slowdown
• Rental yields remain steady...
  • Figure 15: Average rental yields -- England and Wales, May 2003-July 2007
• ...but not much above base rates
• Affordability becomes a hot topic...
• ...and property investors bear the brunt of criticism
• Investigation launched into the impact of BTL...
• ...and legislation adds to landlords' admin costs
• New opportunities for indirect property investment
• Strict limits on REIT eligibility...
• ...but significant advantages for investors
• Potential for residential REITs -- but concerns over the structure
• Scheme yet to live up to the hype
• Competitive Context
• Key point summary
• Varied role of property increases potential competitors...
• ...but also means that it stands alone
• Alternative retirement saving strategies
  • Figure 16: Summary of retirement funding strategies
• Pensions the key competitor...
  • Figure 17: Individual pension sales, 2001-06
• ...with A-day boosting long-term prospects
• SIPPs -- giving control to the investor
• A resurgence in equity ISA subscriptions...
• Figure 18: New ISA subscriptions, 2001/02-2006/07
• ...and strong sales of collective investments
  • Figure 19: Gross unit trust/OEIC sales, 1997-2006
• Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Market Size -- Mortgages
• Key point summary
• A booming market for mortgages
  • Figure 20: Gross mortgage lending, by type of advance, 1997-2006
• Investment -- or home?
• Do remortgaging and MEW signal a shift in attitudes?
  • Figure 21: Housing equity withdrawal, 2000-07
• Market Size -- Buy-to-Let
• Key point summary
• Buy-to-let approaching a tenth of outstanding mortgages...
  • Figure 22: Number and value of buy-to-let mortgages outstanding, 2000-07 (H1)
• ...and taking a growing share of new lending
  • Figure 23: Number and value of buy-to-let sales, 2000-07
• Prospects uncertain for BTL investors...
• ...with interest rates potentially crucial
• Market Size -- Indirect Property Investment
• Key point summary
• Range of investment vehicles expanding
• Property funds -- 2006' s success story...
• ...although performance is starting to suffer
• Property companies taking advantage of REIT status
• Market capitalisation tops £30 billion...
• ...but institutional shareholders dominate
• Total private holdings dwarfed by other forms of property investment
• Companies and Products
• Key point summary
• Mortgages
• The former building societies still strong
  • Figure 24: Leading providers in the mortgage market, 2006
• Will Northern Rock trigger a flight to quality?
• Subsidiary brands dominate in the BTL market
  • Figure 25: Leading providers in the buy-to-let market, 2006
• Insulating -- or isolating?
• Indirect property investment
• A rush to launch property funds...
  • Figure 26: Specialist property funds operating in the UK, September 2007
• ...although the flow of REIT conversions has slowed
  • Figure 27: UK-based REITs, September 2007
• The Consumer -- Investment Portfolio
• Key point summary
• Property still a minority investment...
  • Figure 28: Investment ownership, June 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Diversification an issue?
  • Figure 29: Number of different asset classes held, June 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• ...but for ABs, it' s a key part of investment planning
  • Figure 30: Investment ownership, by gender and socio-economic group, June 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Asset ownership starts low...
  • Figure 31: Investment ownership, by age, June 2007
• ...and peaks early
• Implications and opportunities
• Lifestage is key -- although less so when it comes to cash
  • Figure 32: Investment ownership, by lifestage, June 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• ABC1 third age -- driving the BTL market
• Implications and opportunities
• A three-tier property market?
  • Figure 33: Investment ownership, by household income, June 2007
• Renting -- but still investing
• Implications and opportunities
• Londoners lead the way in the BTL market
• Online the natural home for property investment firms...
• Implications and opportunities
• ...and broadsheets the natural home for financial services advertising
• Implications and opportunities
• The Consumer -- Future Intentions and Expectations
• Key point summary
• More than one in five thinking about making a property investment
  • Figure 34: Agreement with the statement ' I am seriously considering buying an investment property in the next few years' , June 2007
• Ready to take on another mortgage?
  • Figure 35: Agreement with the statement ' I am seriously considering buying an investment property in the next few years' , by household tenure, June 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• The affluent look to diversify
• Implications and opportunities
• The boom generation
  • Figure 36: Agreement with the statement ' I am seriously considering buying an investment property in the next few years' , by lifestage, June 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• London still the home of the property investor
• Property investors looking to expand their holdings
  • Figure 37: Investment holdings, by agreement with the statement ' I am seriously considering buying an investment property in the next few years' , June 2007
• Bullish, despite interest rate rises
  • Figure 38: House price expectations, June 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Expectations in opposition to exposure
  • Figure 39: House price expectations, by housing tenure, June 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• Pessimism among those who can best afford to invest...
  • Figure 40: House price expectation index, by gender, age and socio-economic group, June 2007
• Implications and opportunities
• ...but falling prices need not lead to falling investment
  • Figure 41: House price expectations, by agreement with the statement ' I am seriously considering buying an investment property in the next few years' , June 2007
• Opportunities and Insights
• The Consumer -- Property as Investment
• Key point summary
• Property or equities?
  • Figure 42: Preferred savings vehicles, June 2007
• 25-44-year-olds looking to property
  • Figure 43: Preferred savings vehicles, by age, June 2007
• Affluent more likely to favour equities -- but property still wins out
  • Figure 44: Preferred savings vehicles, by socio-economic group, June 2007
• A pay cheque, rather than a home?
  • Figure 45: Agreement with the statement ' I see owning property largely as a way of making money' , June 2007
• Homemakers? Or investors?
  • Figure 46: Agreement with the statement ' I see owning property largely as a way of making money' , by gender, age and socio-economic group, June 2007
• A fundamental change in attitudes?
• Middle income earners and the property bank...
  • Figure 47: Agreement with the statement ' I see owning property largely as a way of making money' , by household income, June 2007
• Sources of advice
• Banks lead the way
  • Figure 48: Preferred sources of investment mortgages, June 2007
• The benefits of age...
  • Figure 49: Preferred sources of investment mortgages, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, household income, tenure and daily newspaper readership, June 2007
• ...and scope for IFA involvement
  • Figure 50: Investment ownership, by preferred sources of investment mortgages, June 2007
• The Consumer -- Attitudes towards Property Investment
• Key point summary
• A house is just a home -- but prices still matter
  • Figure 51: Attitudes towards property investment, June 2007
• Sell to rent -- a minority approach
• Altruism at the top of the ladder?
  • Figure 52: Attitudes towards property investment, June 2007
• Mortgagors -- the key market for property firms
• ABs ditch pensions for property
• Pension providers facing a fight...
• ...but could REITs be the answer?
• The clash of the generations...
• ...and a chance for younger people to keep up with the market
• Pushing ahead -- despite fears over interest rates
  • Figure 53: Attitudes towards property investment, by agreement with the statement ' I am seriously considering buying an investment property in the next few years' , June 2007
• Key Targets and Future Prospects
• Key point summary
• Assessing the potential
  • Figure 54: Range of propensity to invest, June 2007
• Sorting the wheat from the chaff
  • Figure 55: Potential consumer base, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage and household income, June 2007
• Background demographics unfavourable
  • Figure 56: Impact of demographic changes on potential consumer base, 2006 and 2012
• Modelling the market
  • Figure 57: Level of deterrent, 2007
• Calculating the size of the potential consumer base
  • Figure 58: Anticipated take-up, by target group, 2007
• A potential of 5 million investors
  • Figure 59: Make-up of potential market, 2007
• Barriers to growth
  • Figure 60: Particular barriers to the potential market, 2007
• Interest rates key determinant
• Interest rate scenarios
  • Figure 61: Interest rate scenarios' effect on future potential market, 2007 and 2012
• Appendix
• Asset holding and repertoire
  • Figure 62: Type of asset held, by number of assets, June 2007
  • Figure 63: Investment ownership, by age, June 2007
  • Figure 64: Investment ownership, by gender and socio-economic group, June 2007
  • Figure 65: Investment ownership, by Mintel' s Special Groups and working status, June 2007
  • Figure 66: Investment ownership, by household income and housing tenure, June 2007
  • Figure 67: Investment ownership, by region, June 2007
  • Figure 68: Investment ownership, by media usage, June 2007
  • Figure 69: Investment ownership, by commercial TV viwing and supermarket usage, June 2007
• Potential property purchases
  • Figure 70: Agreement with the statement ' I am seriously considering buying an investment property in the next few years' , by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage and supermarket usage, June 2007
• House price expectations
  • Figure 71: House price expectations, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage and supermarket usage, June 2007
• Preferred savings vehicle
  • Figure 72: Preferred savings vehicles, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, supermarket usage and age/socio-economic group, June 2007
  • Figure 73: Agreement with the statement ' I see owning property largely as a way of making money' , by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, supermarket usage and age/socio-economic group, June 2007
• Sources of advice
  • Figure 74: Agreement with the statement ' I see owning property largely as a way of making money' , by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, household income, tenure, region, ACORN category, media usage, supermarket usage and age/socio-economic group, June 2007
• Attitudes towards property investment
  • Figure 75: Attitudes towards property investment, by gender and socio-economic group, June 2007
  • Figure 76: Attitudes towards property investment, by age, June 2007
  • Figure 77: Attitudes towards property investment, by lifestage and Mintel' s Special Groups, June 2007
  • Figure 78: Attitudes towards property investment, by household income, June 2007
  • Figure 79: Attitudes towards property investment, by region, June 2007
  • Figure 80: Attitudes towards property investment, by ACORN group, June 2007
  • Figure 81: Attitudes towards property investment, by tenure and media usage, June 2007
  • Figure 82: Attitudes towards property investment, by Internet usage and newspaper readership, June 2007
  • Figure 83: Attitudes towards property investment, by commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, June 2007