Abstract
The U.S. cakes and pies market (including packaged and in-store bakery products) remained stable from 2002-07, in constant terms, as manufacturers attempted to wade through varied health and wellness trends. This report details the current status of the cakes and pies market, addressing the opportunities for category players. Specific questions answered in this report include the following:
- What does the "fit or fat" mentality mean for the cakes and pie market?
- How prevalent is the reduction of trans fats and how valuable is this claim to consumers?
- How is the aging of the population affecting the market?
- What is the market for healthy cakes and pies? What will healthy formulations be in the future?
- Which players are marketing to moms/kids and which have their eyes set on men? How might a category player reinvent a snack cake or pie for the male market?
- How has portion control changed the landscape and which lines in the category have been negatively affected by these options?
- What steps could retailers take to get more attention and foot traffic into their in-store bakeries?
- Which flavor innovations have generated markedly higher sales for category players in the past two years? What is the future of flavor innovations?
Mintel' s analysis is peppered with ideas and recommendations regarding new product development, packaging innovations and marketing promotions.
This report covers the sale of ready-to-eat cakes through food, drug and mass merchandiser channels, and includes the following products:
- Cakes
- Pies
- Brownies
- Cupcakes
- Cheesecakes
- Snack cakes
- Sponge cakes
Excluded from the report are products generally considered breakfast foods (such as coffee cake and doughnuts), cake mixes, piecrusts, cookies, frozen desserts and cakes for the catering market.
Table of Contents
- Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Resources for consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Executive Summary
- The bottom line
- Are "perfect portions" from in-store bakeries next?
- Weight Watchers success and its imminent challenge
- ISBs control nearly two thirds of all sales but 26% buy from independent bakeries
- George Weston gaining slightly while two largest players slip
- Healthier cakes could resonate particularly well among Asian consumers
- The future could bring cakes/pies designed for men
- Market expects market to reach $6.7 billion by 2012
- Market Drivers
- Americans: Fit or fat
- Clearly a market for indulgent treats
- Figure 1: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese, 20-74 years of age, 1988-2004
- But many seeking to get fit--and, are cutting sweets
- Figure 2: Whether frequently eat sweets and whether feel guilty after eating sweets, April 2000-March 2001, January-September 2004 and January-October 2006
- Figure 3: Uncle Wally' s Smart Portion, 2006
- Figure 4: Tastykake Sensables, 2007
- Specific health issues affect the category
- Trans fats are out...
- ... whole grains are in
- Shifts in U.S. population demand attention
- Aging population affecting consumption of baked goods
- Figure 5: Items eat when craving something sweet, by age, March 2007
- Figure 6: Population by age, 2002-12
- More children
- Figure 7: Households by presence of children, 1995-2005
- Figure 8: Hostess cupcakes with "Over the Hedge" movie tie-in, 2006
- Figure 9: Enten-mini' s Tubes, 2007
- Children and health
- Figure 10: Household usage of snack cakes among those with children in the household, October 2000-September 2001, January-September 2003 and January-October 2006
- Smaller households
- Figure 11: Households by size, 1995 and 2005
- Endless sweet options pose competition for the market
- Figure 12: Reasons for not eating ready-to-eat cakes or pies, July 2007
- Figure 13: Incidence of household consumption of other sweet goods, 2001-06
- Market Size and Trends
- Market size
- Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales of cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Market trends
- Noteworthy new products
- Figure 15: New product releases in cakes and pies in U.S.*, 2002-07
- Figure 16: Weight Watchers Caramel Cakes, 2007
- Figure 17: Reese' s brownie from Hershey' s, 2006
- Figure 18: Oreo Cakesters from Kraft, 2007
- New product claims
- Figure 19: New product claims in cakes and pies in the U.S., 2002-07*
- Figure 20: Entenmann' s Little Bites 100-calorie packs, 2007
- Figure 21: Mini Cakes from Wal-Mart, 2006
- Figure 22: Snoballs from Hostess, 2006
- Market Segmentation
- Introduction
- Figure 23: U.S. sales of cakes and pies in FDM channels (including in-store bakeries), segmented by type, 2005 and 2007
- In-store bakeries
- Figure 24: Sales of in-store bakery cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Shelf stable cakes and pies
- Figure 25: FDM sales of shelf stable cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Cupcakes and brownies
- Figure 26: FDM sales of cupcakes and brownies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Cheesecakes
- Figure 27: FDM sales of cheesecakes, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Refrigerated cakes and pies
- Figure 28: FDM sales of refrigerated cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Supply Structure
- Companies and brands
- Figure 29: FDM manufacturer sales of packaged cakes and pies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Shelf-stable cakes and pies
- Figure 30: FDM manufacturer brand sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Cupcakes and brownies
- Figure 31: FDM manufacturer brand sales of cupcakes and brownies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Cheesecakes
- Figure 32: FDM manufacturer brand sales of cheesecakes in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Refrigerated cakes and pies
- Figure 33: FDM manufacturer brand sales of refrigerated cakes and pies in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Advertising and Promotion
- Interstate Bakeries Corporation
- Sponsorships
- Movie tie-ins
- New product launch support
- McKee Foods
- Figure 34: Little Debbie television ad, 2007
- George Weston Bakeries
- Figure 35: Entenmann' s Ultimate television ad, 2007
- Tasty Baking
- Retail Distribution
- Retail channels at which cakes and pies are bought
- Figure 36: From where cakes and pies are bought, July 2007
- Sales of packaged cakes/pies by retail channel
- Figure 37: FDM retail sales of packaged cakes and pies, by channel, 2005 and 2007
- Wal-Mart estimate for entire cakes/pies category
- The Consumer: Household Usage of Snack Cakes
- Summary of this section
- Household consumption of snack cakes
- Figure 38: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, 2001-06
- Figure 39: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Figure 40: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, by educational level of respondent, January-October 2006
- Figure 41: Incidence of household consumption of snack cakes, by number of people in the household, January-October 2006
- Brands of snack cakes consumed in household
- Figure 42: Brands of snack cakes eaten in household, January-October 2006
- Amount of snack cakes consumed in household monthly
- Figure 43: Number of snack cakes eaten in household monthly, by household size, January-October 2006
- The Consumer: Personal Usage of Cakes and Pies
- Summary of section
- Specific types of ready-to-eat cakes and pies eaten
- Figure 44: Types of ready-to-eat cakes/pies eaten, by gender, July 2007
- Figure 45: Types of ready-to-eat cakes/pies eaten, by age of respondent, July 2007
- Figure 46: Types of ready-to-eat cakes/pies eaten, by number of people in the household, July 2007
- The Consumer: Attitudes and Behaviors Regarding Cakes and Pies
- Summary of this section
- The role of "healthy eating" in cake/pie consumption
- Figure 47: Opinions regarding healthy cakes/pies or indulgent cakes/pies, by key demographics, July 2007
- Figure 48: Healthier kinds of cakes and pies category users would like to see more of, July 2007
- Opinions of cakes and pies
- Figure 49: Opinions of cakes and pies, by gender, July 2007
- Future and Forecast
- Decadence and flavor adventures could reach new heights
- Manly cake and pie
- Figure 50: Luna Tea Cakes, 2006
- Cakes and pies for all drinking and eating occasions
- Market forecast
- Cakes and pies market
- Figure 51: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- In-store bakeries
- Figure 52: Forecast of U.S. fdm sales of in-store bakery cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Shelf stable cakes and pies
- Figure 53: Forecast of U.S. fdm sales of shelf stable cakes and pies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Cupcakes and brownies
- Figure 54: Forecast of U.S. fdm sales of cupcakes and brownies, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Forecast factors
- Appendix: Trade Associations
