Abstract
Coffee for at-home consumption displayed robust growth during 2002-07. However, as sales at coffeehouses continue to climb, the industry can' t help thinking of the period as one of lost opportunity. Another dark spot on the nature of the growth is that it came entirely from price increases- volume at FDM actually fell during the period. These two facts point to a very challenging environment in the next five years; one in which all stakeholders can benefit from Mintel' s comprehensive and incisive analysis of the market.
In this report you' ll learn:
- Exactly how many sales are leaving the at-home coffee market for coffeehouses- and who are the switchers
- What is the huge price gap between regular and premium coffee, and what brands are vying to fill the gap
- Whether or not Mintel sees prospects for expansion
- The complex relationship between segments; for instance, the fastest-growing segment (ready-to-drink) really isn' t expanding the market overall
- Why the big increase in the number of older adults, who tend to be the heaviest coffee drinkers, is not helping to grow the market; and why the sharp rise in the number of 18-24s who drink coffee is also not translating into big sales gains for coffee at home
- Analysis of the latest trends, including single-serve “pod” coffee makers, stomach-friendly coffee, fair trade and sustainable products, RTD products, organic coffee, and flavored coffee
In addition, Mintel' s extensive analysis of consumer demographics among coffee drinkers makes it easy to see what types of coffee can be marketed to the many niche groups that exist. We explore all aspects of coffee drinking at home and away, such as frequency, reasons for drinking/not drinking, brand preferences, places of purchase, and where people like to drink coffee.
The report primarily covers the following types of coffee:
- Ground coffee
- Instant coffee
- Coffee beans
- Ready-to-drink coffee
Excluded are coffee substitutes, additives, and flavorings. Also excluded is prepared coffee sold through outlets such as coffeehouses, restaurants, convenience stores, vending machines, and other venues.
Table of Contents
- Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Resources used for The Consumer sections
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Executive Summary
- Bottom line
- Topline view of the consumer and coffee
- Segments and players
- Retail distribution
- Coffee usage location perspective
- Factors to growth
- Coffeehouses drive exposure and shift to premium coffee
- Ready-to-drink coffee attracts consumers
- Taste and energy boost attributes provide leverage
- Fair trade and sustainable coffee attract consumers
- Single-serve coffee makers pique consumer interest
- Stomach-friendly coffee
- Challenges to growth
- Migration to other fast-growing beverage segments
- Health and price factor into decisions to drink less coffee
- Expanded coffeehouse coffee brand distribution a double-edged sword
- Leading national brands suffer from coffeehouse competition
- Baby Boomers and Swingers may not go for premium coffee
- On the horizon
- Market Drivers
- Coffeehouses and restaurants raise quality bar--and drive exposure to
coffee variety
- Figure 1: U.S. retail sales at coffeehouses and donut shops, at current and constant prices, 2004-06
- Figure 2: Reasons for drinking more coffee, July 2007
- Figure 3: Consumption of specialty coffee among adults, 2000-06
- Expanded coffeehouse coffee brand distribution a double-edged sword
- Figure 4: Dollar and volume sales growth in major coffeehouse brands and lading national brands for ground and whole bean coffee*, 2004 and 2006
- Leading national brands suffer from coffeehouse competition
- Figure 5: Household usage and usage frequency of coffee, 2002 and 2006
- Figure 6: Combined FDM* sales of Folgers and Maxwell House **, 2002-07
- Migration to other fast-growing beverage segments
- Figure 7: Reasons for drinking less coffee today than a year ago, by gender, July 2007
- Energy drinks
- Tea
- Coffee surpasses soda
- Baby Boomers and swingers driving population growth
- Figure 8: personal consumption of coffee, by age, July 2007
- Figure 9: Population aged 18 or older, 2002-12
- Hispanics
- Figure 10: Incidence of household consumption of ground/whole bean, instant, and international flavored coffee, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Figure 11: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2002-12
- Market Size and Trends
- Market size
- Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales of coffee, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Figure 13: FDM* dollar and volume sales and price per pound of coffee**, 2002-07
- Wal-Mart estimate
- Market trends
- Ready-to-drink coffee attracts consumers
- Product claims
- Figure 14: New product releases, 2002-07
- Figure 15: New coffee* product claims, 2002-07*
- Fair trade
- Coffee with a cause--fair trade certified and sustainable coffee attract consumers
- Coffee innovations
- Single-serve coffee makers pique consumer interest
- Stomach-friendly coffee--the biggest innovation since the introduction of decaffeinated coffee
- Market Segmentation
- Introduction
- Figure 16: Coffee sales through FDM*, segmented by type, 2005 and 2007**
- Ground coffee
- Figure 17: FDM* sales of ground coffee, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Figure 18: FDM* volume sales of ground coffee and price per pound, 2002-07
- Figure 19: FDM* select brand volume sales and price of ground coffee, 2005 and 2007
- Instant coffee
- Figure 20: FDM* Sales of instant coffee, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Figure 21: reasons for drinking less coffee today than a year ago, by gender, July 2007
- Figure 22: Incidence of household consumption of instant coffee, by race/ethnicity, 2002 and 2006
- Whole bean coffee
- Figure 23: FDM* sales of whole bean coffee, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Figure 24: FDM* volume sales of whole bean coffee and price per pound, 2002-07
- Ready-to-drink coffee
- Figure 25: FDM* sales of RTD coffee, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Figure 26: Average price per 16-fluid ounce of various RTD non-alcoholic beverages at FDM, 2007
- Supply Structure
- Foreign trade
- Coffee imports
- Figure 27: U.S. coffee imports, 2002-07*
- Alliances and acquisitions
- Top suppliers forge alliances with coffeehouse brands
- Acquisitions and divestiture
- Companies and brands
- Figure 28: FDM* sales of major manufacturers in the coffee market in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Ground coffee
- Figure 29: Selected brand sales and market share of ground coffee at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Instant coffee
- Figure 30: Selected brand sales and market share of instant coffee at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Whole bean coffee
- Figure 31: Selected brand sales and market share of whole bean coffee at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Ready-to-drink coffee
- Figure 32: Selected brand sales and market share of ready-to-drink coffee at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
- Advertising and Promotion
- Proctor & Gamble
- Folgers--aroma seal packaging
- Figure 33: Folgers Aroma Seal ground coffee--TV ad, 2006
- Folgers--Simply Smooth, the stomach-friendly coffee
- Figure 34: Folgers Simply Smooth coffee--TV ad, 2006
- Folgers--gourmet
- Figure 35: Folgers gourmet ground coffee--TV ad, 2006
- Millstone
- Figure 36: Millstone ground/whole bean coffee--TV ad, 2007
- Kraft Food Company
- Figure 37: Maxwell House--TV ad, 2007
- Eight O' Clock Coffee
- Figure 38: Eight O' Clock coffee--TV ad, 2007
- Retail Distribution
- Introduction
- Figure 39: Choice of retail channel to purchase coffee, July 2007
- Figure 40: U.S. retail sales of coffee, by channel, 2005 and 2007
- Supermarkets
- Figure 41: U.S. supermarket sales of coffee at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- Mass and other
- Figure 42: U.S. mass and other* sales of coffee at current and constant prices, 2002-07
- The Consumer: Usage, Frequency, Types and Brands
- Summary
- Personal consumption of coffee
- Personal preference for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and use of creamer
- Personal frequency of drinking coffee
- Household usage and frequency of use of different types of coffee
- RTD coffee
- Personal consumption of coffee
- Figure 43: Incidence of personal consumption of coffee, by key demographics, July 2007
- Personal preference for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and use of
creamer
- Figure 44: preference for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and use of creamer, by gender, July 2007
- Figure 45: Personal preference for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and use of creamer, by age, July 2007
- Figure 46: Personal preference for caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee and use of creamer, by race/ethnicity, July 2007
- Figure 47: Personal frequency of drinking coffee, by gender, July 2007
- Figure 48: Personal frequency of drinking coffee, by age, July 2007
- Household usage of different types of coffee
- Figure 49: Incidence of household consumption of ground/whole bean, instant, and international flavored coffee, by age, January-October 2006
- Figure 50: Incidence of household consumption of ground/whole bean, instant, and international flavored coffee, by age, January-October 2006
- Figure 51: Incidence of household consumption of ground/whole bean, instant, and international flavored coffee, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
- Household frequency of consumption
- Figure 52: Household frequency of consumption of coffee in average day, by type, 2002-06
- Figure 53: Household frequency of consumption of coffee in average day, by type, January-October 2006
- Personal consumption of ready-to-drink coffee
- Figure 54: Incidence of personal consumption of RTD coffee, by key demographics, January-October 2006
- The Consumer: Retail Channel Preference and Places to Drink Coffee
- Summary
- Retail channel preferences
- Where people drink coffee
- Choice of retail channels to purchase coffee
- Figure 55: Choice of retail channel to purchase coffee, July 2007
- Figure 56: choice of retail channel to purchase coffee by age, July 2007
- Figure 57: Choice of retail channel to purchase coffee, by income, July 2007
- Where people drink coffee
- Figure 58: Locations where respondents have had coffee in past month, by age, August 2007
- Figure 59: Locations where respondents have had coffee in past month, by household income, August 2007
- Figure 60: Locations where respondents have had coffee in past month, by race/ethnicity, August 2007
- The Consumer: Attitudes and Behavior
- Summary
- Reasons for drinking coffee
- Incidence of drinking more or less coffee compared to a year ago
- Reasons for drinking less coffee today than a year ago
- Reasons for drinking more coffee today than a year ago
- Reasons for drinking coffee
- Figure 61: Reasons for drinking coffee, by age, July 2007
- Figure 62: Reasons for drinking coffee, by race/ethnicity, July 2007
- Incidence of drinking more or less coffee compared to a year ago
- Figure 63: Incidence of drinking more or less coffee compared to a year ago, by age, July 2007
- Figure 64: Incidence of drinking more or less coffee compared to a year ago, by race/ethnicity, July 2007
- Reasons for drinking less coffee today than a year ago
- Figure 65: reasons for drinking less coffee today than a year ago, by gender, July 2007
- Figure 66: Reasons for drinking less coffee today than a year ago, by gender, July 2007
- Reasons for drinking more coffee today than a year ago
- Figure 67: reasons for drinking more coffee today than a year ago, by gender, July 2007
- Future and Forecast
- Future trends
- Entry of "mid-priced" premiums
- Coffee prices are likely to keep upward trend
- Continued path of alliance between manufacturers and premium coffee brands
- Increasing research and media attention to coffee' s health-promoting benefits may drive growth
- Market forecast
- Coffee
- Figure 68: Forecast of total U.S. sales of coffee, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Ground coffee
- Figure 69: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of ground coffee, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Instant coffee
- Figure 70: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of instant coffee, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Whole bean coffee
- Figure 71: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of whole bean coffee, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- RTD coffee
- Figure 72: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of RTD coffee, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
- Forecast factors
- Appendix: Trade Associations
