美國麵包市場

Abstract

This report provides analysis and insights into the bread market that can help in positioning marketing messages, the launch of new products, and retail strategies to invigorate sales. Such insights include:

• Changing consumer preference for different types of bread-how much consumers are eating, and why
• How households with children as well as Hispanic households are growth-driving demographics in terms of volume, but smaller households can sometimes drive purchase of premium products
• How the industry took the blows of the low-carb frenzy and came out of it more innovative and more profitable
• Which innovations are driving the market in the short-term, and which will guide sales over the long term
• Fragmented production-does it have to be this way?
• What does the past evolution of retailers in the bread market tell us about upcoming changes?
• Why is bread consumption in decline, and will it continue falling?
• Which consumers are purchasing more premium products compared to last year? What types?

This report explores the U.S. retail market for traditional American bread, European-style specialty bread and Mexican bread:

• Fresh sandwich breads includes white, brown, and whole grain, which may be sliced or unsliced, wrapped or unwrapped
• Fresh rolls/buns/croissants
• Tortillas/taco shells including corn and flour tortillas as well as taco shells and tostadas
• Bagels/English muffins
• Other refrigerated/frozen breads includes continental and specialty bread such as French baguettes, pain de champagne, Italian focaccia, Greek pita, Indian naan, chapati, paratha, American flatbread, sourdough, and Irish soda bread.
• Breads made from flour other than wheat, such as rye or oat flour, or from organic flour, and bread containing additions such as nuts and seeds, are also considered specialty bread

Each bread type includes sales of fresh, refrigerated, and frozen products.

Excluded are morning goods such as muffins, scones, sticky buns, and sweet rolls. Also excluded are home baking products, such as flour, yeast, and bread mixes, as are toast products (e.g. Melba toasts) and cakes, which may be eaten as bread substitutes. Tortilla chips and tostada chips are excluded. The consumption of bread outside the home in restaurants and catering outlets is also excluded.

This report contains US IRI InfoScan data.

Table of Contents

• Scope and ThemesWhat you need to know
• Definition
• Data collection
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Executive Summary
• Market at a glance
• Fresh bread--the biggest segment exhibits less than promising sales growth
• Top six manufacturers account for nearly half the sales
• Supermarkets continue to sell the most bread in the U.S.
• Bread consumers
• Household bread usage by type
• Household frequency of using fresh bread
• Forms of bread used in households
• Choice of retail channels for purchases in the past two weeks:
• Changes in buying behavior
• Importance of value proposition, health attributes, and consumer loyalty in purchasing bread
• Willingness to try new products
• Why consumers are eating more whole grain bread
• Future trends
• Bread industry is positioned for more profitable operation
• Bread marketers are meeting consumer expectations
• Market Drivers
• Bread is a mature market
• Household consumption of bread on decline
  • Figure 1: Frequency of household consumption of bread, 2002-06
• Eating out trends negatively impact bread usage
  • Figure 2: Spending on dining out, by age, 2001-05
  • Figure 3: U.S. sales of QSR sandwich restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2004-06
• Growing diversity of U.S. diet results in fewer bread purchases
• Growing incidence of obesity unravels the bond between people and bread
  • Figure 4: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese, 20-74 years of age, 1988-2004
• Consumers seek bread that tastes good and is good for them
• Consumers replace white bread with whole grain bread
  • Figure 5: Household use of types of bread, 2002-06
  • Figure 6: Response to various bread claims, June 2007
  • Figure 7: Reasons for eating more whole grain bread than last year, June 2007
• Bread makers reformulate breads to meet both health and taste concerns
• Natural and organic bread gain popularity
• Demographic influences
• Households with children influence the market
  • Figure 8: Incidence of household consumption of bread, by presence of children, 2006
  • Figure 9: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, by presence of children, 2006
  • Figure 10: Number of children in households, 2001 and 2006
• Growing population diversity positively influences the market
  • Figure 11: Incidence of household consumption of bread, by race/ethnicity, 2006
  • Figure 12: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, by race/ethnicity, 2006
  • Figure 13: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2002-12
• Bread sales through in-store bakeries experience growth
  • Figure 14: Sales of ISB bread and bagels/muffins/croissants, 2001-06
• Market Size and Trends
• Market size
  • Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Wal-Mart estimate
• Market trends
  • Figure 16: New product releases, 2002-07*
  • Figure 17: New bread product claims, 2002-07*
• Market Segmentation
• Introduction
  • Figure 18: FDM* sales of bread, segmented by type, 2005 and 2007
• Fresh bread
  • Figure 19: FDM* sales of fresh bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Fresh rolls/buns/croissants
  • Figure 20: FDM* sales of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Tortillas/taco shells
  • Figure 21: FDM* sales of tortillas/taco shells, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Bagels/English muffins
  • Figure 22: FDM* sales of bagels/English muffins, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Refrigerated/frozen bread
  • Figure 23: FDM* sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Supply Structure
• A fragmented market
• A mega market without a megabrand
• Bread production is a local business
• Large bread companies created through consolidation
• The DSD system
• Difficult environment for bread producers
• Excess capacity
• Price competition
• Increasing cost pressures
• Companies and brands
  • Figure 24: Manufacturer sales of bread in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Fresh bread
  • Figure 25: Selected brand sales and market share of fresh bread at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Fresh rolls/buns/croissants
  • Figure 26: Selected brand sales and market share of fresh rolls/buns/croissants at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Tortillas/taco shells
  • Figure 27: Selected brand sales and market share of tortillas/taco shells at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Refrigerated/frozen bread
  • Figure 28: Selected brand sales and market share of refrigerated/frozen bread at FDM* in the U.S.,
• Bagels/English muffins
  • Figure 29: Selected brand sales and market share of bagels/English muffins at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Advertising and Promotion
• Interstate Brands Corporation
  • Figure 30: Wonder Whole Grain White--TV ad, 2006
• Sara Lee Bakery
  • Figure 31: Sara Lee range of whole grain white breads--TV ad, 2006
  • Figure 32: Sara Lee Thick Hearty Sandwich breads--TV ad, 2006
• Bimbo Bakeries USA
• Mrs Baird' s
  • Figure 33: Mrs Baird' s bread--TV ad, 2006
• Retail Distribution
• Introduction
• Main competition is between supermarkets and mass merchandisers
  • Figure 34: Outlets at which consumers purchase bread, June 2007
  • Figure 35: U.S. retail sales of bread, by channel, 2005 and 2007
• Supermarkets and Wal-Mart offer consumers different selling propositions
• Supermarkets
  • Figure 36: U.S. supermarket sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Mass merchandisers and other
  • Figure 37: Mass merchandisers sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
  • Figure 38: Wal-Mart store growth, 2001-06
• The Consumer: Usage, Frequency of Use and Types of Bread Used
• Summary
• Household bread usage by type
• Household frequency of using fresh bread
• Forms of bread used in households
• Choice of retail channels:
• Changes in buying behavior
• Importance of value proposition, health attributes, and consumer loyalty in purchasing bread
• Willingness to try new products
• Why consumers are eating more whole grain bread
• Household bread use
  • Figure 39: Use of bread, January-October 2006
• Bread use by type
  • Figure 40: Household use of types of bread, 2002-06
  • Figure 41: Household use of bread, by type, by age of the head of household, January-October 2006
  • Figure 42: Household use of bread, by type, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
  • Figure 43: Household use of bread, by type, by presence of children in the household, January-October 2006
  • Figure 44: Household consumption of bread, by type, by region, January-October 2006
• Bread usage analysis by cohorts
  • Figure 45: Types of bread used, comparison of working class couples and affluent couples,
  • Figure 46: Types of bread used, comparison of affluent couples with and without kids, January-October 2006
• Frequency of use
  • Figure 47: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, 2002-06
  • Figure 48: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, by demographic characteristics of household, January-October 2006
• Forms of bread used
  • Figure 49: Forms of bread used by household, 2002-06
  • Figure 50: Forms of bread used by households, by age, January-October 2006
  • Figure 51: Forms of bread used by households, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
  • Figure 52: Forms of bread used by households, by presence of children, January-October 2006
• Household bread usage by brands
  • Figure 53: Brands of breads used, by age, January-October 2006
  • Figure 54: Brands of breads used, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
• The Consumer: Choice of Retail Channels to Purchase Bread
• Where consumers buy bread
  • Figure 55: Choice of retail channels to purchase bread, by age, June 2007
  • Figure 56: Choice of retail channels to purchase bread, by household income, June 2007
• The Consumer: Attitudes and Behavior
• Changes in buying behavior
  • Figure 57: Purchase of bread with various health and information claims, by age, June 2007
• Importance of value proposition, health attributes, and consumer habit in purchasing bread
  • Figure 58: Attitude and behavior when purchasing bread, by age, June 2007
• Willingness to try new products
  • Figure 59: Interest in trying bread with various ingredients added, by presence of children in household,
• Why consumers are eating more whole grain bread
  • Figure 60: Reasons for eating more whole grain bread than last year, by age, June 2007
• Future and Forecast
• Future trends
• Significant growth in demand for bread is unlikely
• Bread industry is positioned for more profitable operation
• Bread marketers are meeting consumer expectations
• Bread makers position vis-ünvis retailers is improvingDemographic trends are favorable
  • Figure 61: Projected population of the United States, by age, 2000-20
• Market forecast
• Bread
  • Figure 62: Forecast of total U.S. sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Fresh bread
  • Figure 63: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of fresh bread, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Fresh rolls, buns, and croissants
  • Figure 64: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Tortillas and taco shells
  • Figure 65: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of tortillas and taco shells, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Bagels and English muffins
  • Figure 66: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of bagels and English muffins, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Other bread
  • Figure 67: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of other bread, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Forecast factors
• Appendix: Trade Associations