英國預錄音樂市場

Abstract

This report examines the changing fortunes of pre-recorded music - an industry contending with the explosion of file-sharing sites, as well as a host of new interactive media and price deflation prompted by the growing influence of online retailers and supermarkets.

A combination of these pressures has seen sales fall, both in terms of volume and value. However, the explosive growth of the legal download market could, if properly managed, go some way towards boosting the profitability of the market.

Table of Contents

• Issues in the MarketKey themes
• Definitions
• Market in Brief
• Sales on a downward trend
• Legal downloads start to generate healthy returns
• Changing distribution having a major impact
• Internal Market Environment
• Key points
• High-tech options growing
  • Figure 1: Households with new technology items, 2002-06
• MP3 players capture the youth market
  • Figure 2: Music systems that 11-14-year-olds have in their own room, 2002-06
• Almost a fifth of adults bought an MP3 player last year
• The need for multiple formats
• PC ownership steadily increasing
  • Figure 3: Household ownership of PCs, 2002-06
• Battling piracy -- the copyright arms race
  • Figure 4: Timeline of events leading to demise and relaunch of Napster
• Are record companies doomed to fail?
• New powers to fight copyright crime
• Sony BMG' s copy protection backfires...
• ...but DRM is still an issue online
• Legal action taken against iTunes
• Steve Jobs expresses doubts over DRM
• Record industry not so sure -- but opinions may be changing
• Some already sidestepping DRM -- and EMI follows suit
• Broader Market Environment
• Key points
• An ageing population leading to changing tastes
  • Figure 5: Trends in the male and female UK population, by age structure, 2002-12
• Can Fifty Quid Bloke save the record industry?
• More money -- more music?
  • Figure 6: PDI and consumer expenditure, at constant 2002 prices, 2002-12
• Competitive Context
• Key points
• Television the top-ranked pastime
  • Figure 7: Top ten favourite leisure activities, December 2006
  • Figure 8: Ten least favourite leisure activities, December 2006
• The Internet offers a new outlet for younger people
  • Figure 9: Online activities in the last six months -- media usage, December 2006
• Signs of the impact of film downloads?
  • Figure 10: Number of pre-recorded videos and DVDs bought in the last 12 months, 2002-06
• Games consoles could threaten
  • Figure 11: Sales of video game hardware/software, 2001-11
• Radio listening sliding
  • Figure 12: Hours of radio listened to per person, 2004-06
• Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Market Value and Forecast
• Key points
• A challenging market...
  • Figure 13: Number of trade deliveries and total value of albums and singles, at current and constant 2002 manufacturer and retail selling prices, 2002-07*
• ...with price as well as volume threatened
  • Figure 14: Average manufacturer selling price (MSP) per unit, at current prices of singles and albums, 2002-07
• The singles market stages a recovery...
  • Figure 15: Volume sales and forecast of singles and albums, 2002-12
• ...but the album market struggles
  • Figure 16: Value sales and forecast of single and albums, at current msp, 2002-12
• Future growth potential
• Factors used in the forecast
• Segment Performance
• Key points
  • Figure 17: Value sales of pre-recorded music, 2004 and 2006
• Volume down -- but value falls faster
  • Figure 18: Number of trade deliveries and total value of CD album sales, at current and constant 2002 msp, 2002-07
• Vinyl finds its niche...
  • Figure 19: Number of trade deliveries and total value of vinyl sales, at current and constant 2002 msp, 2002-07
• ...while cassette tapes become obsolete
  • Figure 20: Number of trade deliveries and total value of cassette album sales, at current and constant 2002 msp, 2002-07
• The rock revival
  • Figure 21: Volume share of singles, by genre, 2004 and 2005
  • Figure 22: Volume share of albums, by genre, 2004 and 2005
• Market Share
• Key points
• A hit-driven market
• Universal boost share of the album market
  • Figure 23: Record company estimated market share, by proportion of units sold -- albums, 2004-06
• Companies and Products
• Key points
• Jostling for position among the majors...
• ...but regulatory concerns are still an issue
• Impala' s decision reflects changing record industry
• The ' big four' -- new strategies for a new environment
• Universal Music Group (UMG)
• Capitalising on back catalogue sales
• Building links with key digital players
• Warner Music Group
• Continuing takeover speculation
• Embracing the Internet -- but holding firm on DRM
• Sony BMG
• Questions regarding the Sony and BMG merger
• Adjusting to the digital age
• EMI
• Profit warnings and trouble in the US...
• ...but making waves in the digital world
• Retailers -- Online and offline
• HMV
• Driven by music sales...
• ...but rapidly diversifying
• Virgin Megastores
• DVDs eclipse music sales
• iTunes store
• Amazon.co.uk
• Brand Communication
• Key points
• Relatively high adspend
  • Figure 24: Total advertising expenditure on pre-recorded records and CDs, 2003-07*
• TV takes the lead...
  • Figure 25: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on pre-recorded records and CDs, by channel, 2003-07
• ...while direct mail spend dwindles
• Adspend reflects market concentration
  • Figure 26: Top 15 advertisers -- pre-recorded records/CDs, 2004 and 2006
• Advertising only a fraction of promotional activity
• Online promotion hits the mainstream
• Channels to Market
• Key points
• Supermarkets continue to increase market share
  • Figure 27: Share of album sales, by retail channel, 2004 and 2006
• Different ranges -- different markets
• Devaluing the entertainment market?
• The Consumer -- Format Usage
• Key points:
• CD single sales reflect growth in downloads...
  • Figure 28: Purchasing of pre-recorded CD albums and CD singles in the last 12 months, 2005 and 2006
• ...while album and singles volume sales falls
  • Figure 29: Number of pre-recorded CD albums and CD singles bought in the last 12 months, 2005 and 2006
• One in ten spend more than £100 a year on albumsFigure 30: Expenditure on pre-recorded CD albums and CD singles in the last 12 months, 2006
• Younger buyers go for quality, not quantity
  • Figure 31: Number of CDs (singles) bought in the last year -- 11-14-year-olds, 2002-06
• Youth buying of albums holds up well
  • Figure 32: Number of CDs (albums) bought in the last year -- 11-14-year-olds, 2002-06
• Selfish -- or sharing?
  • Figure 33: CD single/album bought for self or for someone else, 2006
• Consumer -- Habits and Preferences of Music Fans
• Key points
• CDs' still rules the roost
  • Figure 34: Preferred pre-recorded music formats, March 2007
• Younger people going digital
  • Figure 35: Popularity of major music formats, by age, March 2007
• Choice, or cost?
• The influence of affluence
• Cars -- driving music sales?
  • Figure 36: Listening habits, March 2007
• In-car usage another blow to the CD market?
• Music on the move
• Traditional music retailers being squeezed
  • Figure 37: Usual source of music, March 2007
• Changing business models
• Technology -- or habit?
• Not deserting albums -- yet
  • Figure 38: Attitudes towards pre-recorded music, March 2007
• Recognising the online advantages
• Free music -- convenience, not morality?
• Tailoring the anti-piracy message
• The new traditionalists...
• ...point towards a refocusing of high street retailers
• Appendix
• Consumer research
• ACORN
• Advertising data
• Abbreviations
• Internal Market environment
  • Figure 45: Ownership of audio and visual equipment, 2002-06
• Competitive Context
  • Figure 46: Number of pre-recorded videos bought in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, household size and car ownership, 2006
• The Consumer -- Format Usage: Detailed Demographics
  • Figure 47: Purchasing of pre-recorded CD singles and CD albums in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, household size and car ownership, 2006
  • Figure 48: Ownership of MP3 players, by gender, age, socio-economic group, presence of children, marital status, working status, household size, region, lifestage and Mintel' s Special Groups, 2006
  • Figure 49: Number of pre-recorded CD singles bought in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, household size and car ownership, 2006
  • Figure 50: Number of pre-recorded CD albums bought in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel' s Special Groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, household size and car ownership, 2006
• Consumer -- Habits and preferences of music fans: Detailed Demographics
  • Figure 51: Format used for listening to music, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 52: Format used for listening to music, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 53: Where music is listened to, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 54: Where music is listened to, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 55: Where music is listened to, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 56: Where music is usually bought from, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 57: Where music is usually bought from, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 58: Where music is usually bought from, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 59: Attitudes towards pre-recorded music, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 60: Attitudes towards pre-recorded music, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 61: Attitudes towards pre-recorded music, by gender, age, region, socio-economic group, household size, household income, presence of children, technology usage, supermarket usage, mobile phone provider and TV reception, March 2007
  • Figure 62: Pre-recorded music clusters, by gender, age, socio-economic group, household income, working status, commercial TV viewing, presence of children, region, media usage and supermarket usage, March 2007
• Further Analysis -- Behind the music: Detailed Demographics
  • Figure 63: Cluster typologies of music enthusiasts, by gender, age, socio-economic group, household income, working status, commercial TV viewing, presence of children, region, media usage and supermarket usage, March 2007
  • Figure 64: Cluster typologies, by how people listen to music, March 2007
  • Figure 65: Cluster typologies, by where people usually listen to music, March 2007
  • Figure 66: Cluster typologies, by where people usually buy/source their music from, March 2007
  • Figure 67: Repertoire of how people listen to music, March 2007
  • Figure 68: Repertoire of where people usually listen to music, March 2007
  • Figure 69: Repertoire of where people usually buy/source their music from, March 2007