Abstract
Sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery through all channels is estimated to reach some $3.3 billion in 2005. Looking at 2004 sales, which include verified sales for all holiday products, the market stood at $3.4 billion. Between 1999 and 2004, sales of seasonal chocolate increased 1.4% at current prices, which reflects a decline of 10.5% at constant 2004 prices. To put seasonal chocolate confectionery sales into a wider context, Mintel estimates the total chocolate confectionery market (seasonal and non-seasonal) at $15.1 billion in 2004. The overall chocolate market increased 7.6% between 1999 and 2004, but at constant 2004 prices this represents a 5% decline from 1999-2004.
A number of factors have contributed to the decline in seasonal chocolate sales. This report focuses solely on confectionery products that can be assigned to a specific holiday, but some marketers are blurring seasonal lines by making products that can be used for more than one holiday. For example, Hershey' s Kisses leverages a number of fourth-quarter holidays by selling bags of red, gold, brown, and orange-wrapped chocolates. By not specifying a "holiday" on the wrapping, the product can be sold as a Halloween, Thanksgiving, Fall Football, or Back to School. The same is true for M&Ms, which are sold in "seasonal colors" that can be given for a number of holidays.
The market is also experiencing "channel blurring," which makes it possible to purchase seasonal chocolate (and indeed chocolate for any occasion) through myriad channels from the highest quality chocolatier to the dollar store.
Only chocolate that is strictly positioned as "seasonal" through packaging, promotion, formula, or other indicator, is included in this report. This means, for example, that sales of yellow, red, and orange M&Ms with Halloween-themed overwrap are included, while sales of the same yellow, red, and orange M&Ms with no specific holiday designation on the packaging are not included.
Not included are "generic gift box" chocolates that could be sold at any season (e.g. Whitman' s Sampler) or other chocolate confections that could be given as a substitute for seasonal chocolate (e.g. regular Hershey' s chocolate given as Halloween treats).
This report contains US IRI InfoScan data.
- Introduction and Abbreviations
- Introduction
- Other relevant reports
- Definition
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Executive Summary
- Seasonal sales top $3.3 billion in 2005
- Participation in holidays drives sales
- Gourmet/premium chocolate presents seasonal opportunities
- Religious and secular holidays both contribute to overall sales
- Timing is everything
- Profiles of holiday celebrants
- Households with children
- Market segmentation
- Hershey controls 40% of tracked channel sales
- Advertising and promotion difficult to track
- Products sold through many channels
- Just under eight in ten consumers purchase seasonal chocolate
- Children and spouses prime recipients of seasonal chocolate
- Christmas is a major chocolate occasion
- Almost half of respondents buy seasonal chocolate at specialty stores
- Potential to increase sales in the future
- All segments will continue to decline
- Market Drivers
- Holiday participation
- Figure 1: Holiday participation, by incidence of participation and spending, January 2005
- Premium chocolate as holiday gifts
- Figure 2: Occasions/holidays given gourmet chocolates, December 2004
- Secular and religious holidays
- Figure 3: Religious preference, church membership and attendance, 1980-2002
- Fixed and floating holiday dates
- Figure 4: Number of days between Valentine' s Day and Easter and impact on chocolate confectionery sales, 1999-2005
- Profile of holiday celebrants
- Christmas
- Figure 5: Christmas participation, by celebration type, January 2005
- Valentine' s Day
- Figure 6: Valentine' s Day participation, by celebration type, January 2005
- Easter
- Figure 7: Easter participation, by celebration type, January 2005
- Halloween
- Figure 8: Halloween participation, by celebration type, January 2005
- Households with children
- Figure 9: Households with children under age 18 present, by age of householder, 1994-2004
- Figure 10: Presence of children in households, by age of householder, 2003
- Market Size and Trends
- Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 1999-2005
- Figure 12: Graph: Total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 1999-2005
- Figure 13: Total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
- Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales of chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
- Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales of chocolate confectionery vs total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, 1999-2004
- Creating occasions for chocolate giving
- Primary gift augmented by chocolate
- Children and obesity
- Self-gifting cuts into seasonal sales
- Packaging encourages seasonal success
- Figure 16: Reasons for buying gourmet chocolate, December 2004
- Market Segmentation
- Figure 17: FDM sales of seasonal chocolate market, segmented by holiday, 2002 and 2004*
- Figure 18: Graph: FDM sales of seasonal chocolate market, segmented by holiday, 2004*
- Easter chocolate
- Figure 19: FDM sales of Easter chocolate, at current and constant prices, 1999-2005
- Christmas chocolate
- Figure 20: FDM sales of Christmas chocolate, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
- Valentine' s Day chocolate
- Figure 21: FDM sales of Valentine' s Day chocolate, at current and constant prices, 1999-2005
- Halloween chocolate
- Figure 22: FDM sales of Halloween chocolate, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
- Other seasonal chocolate
- Figure 23: FDM sales of other seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 1999-2005
- Figure 24: U.S. sales of seasonal greetings cards, by occasion, 2002 and 2004
- Supply Structure
- Companies and brands
- Figure 25: Manufacturer FDM sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery in the U.S., 2002 and 2004
- Brand sales by segment
- Easter chocolate
- Figure 26: Manufacturer brand FDM sales of Easter chocolate in the U.S., 2003 and 2005
- Christmas chocolate
- Figure 27: Manufacturer brand FDM sales of Christmas chocolate in the U.S., 2002 and 2004
- Valentine' s Day chocolate
- Figure 28: Manufacturer brand FDM sales of Valentine' s Day chocolate in the U.S., 2003 and 2005
- Halloween chocolate
- Figure 29: Manufacturer brand FDM sales of Halloween chocolate in the U.S., 2002 and 2004
- Figure 30: Seasonal chocolate confectionery market, by type of confectionery product (chocolate vs. non-chocolate), FDM only, 1999-2004
- Other seasonal chocolate
- Figure 31: Manufacturer brand FDM sales of other seasonal chocolate confectionery in the U.S., 2003 and 2005
- Major manufacturers
- Hershey Foods Corporation
- Masterfoods (Mars, Incorporated)
- Nestlé USA, Inc.
- Russell Stover Candies, Inc.
- Advertising and Promotion
- Hershey Foods Corporation
- Masterfoods (Mars, Incorporated)
- Other companies
- Retail Distribution
- Introduction
- Figure 32: Total sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, by channel, 2002 and 2004
- Drug stores
- Convenience stores
- Mass merchandisers
- Natural food stores
- Other channels
- Supermarkets
- Figure 33: Supermarket sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 1999-2005
- Drug stores
- Figure 34: Drug store sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 1999-2005
- Mass merchandisers
- Figure 35: Mass merchandiser sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 1999-2005
- Three-channel analysis of seasonal chocolate purchases
- Figure 36: Share of FDM sales, by channel, for Easter, Christmas, Valentine' s Day, Halloween, and other seasonal chocolate confectionery sales, 2002 and 2004
- Figure 37: Distribution of Easter, Christmas, Valentine' s Day, Halloween, and other seasonal chocolate confectionery sales, across FDM channels, 2002 and 2004
- The Consumer
- Introduction
- Purchase of seasonal chocolate by occasion
- Figure 38: Purchase of seasonal chocolate confectionery, by occasion, June 2005
- Figure 39: Purchase of seasonal chocolate confectionery, by occasion, by gender, June 2005
- Figure 40: Purchase of seasonal chocolate confectionery, by occasion, by age, June 2005
- Figure 41: Purchase of seasonal chocolate confectionery, by occasion, by household income, June 2005
- Figure 42: Purchase of seasonal chocolate confectionery, by occasion, by presence of children in household, June 2005
- Recipients of seasonal chocolate
- Figure 43: Persons for whom seasonal chocolate is purchased, June 2005
- Figure 44: Persons for whom seasonal chocolate is purchased, by gender, June 2005
- Figure 45: Persons for whom seasonal chocolate is purchased, by age, June 2005
- Figure 46: Persons for whom seasonal chocolate is purchased, by household income, June 2005
- Figure 47: Persons for whom seasonal chocolate is purchased, by presence of children in household, June 2005
- Figure 48: Persons for whom seasonal chocolate is purchased, by marital status, June 2005
- Attitudes and opinions about purchasing/giving seasonal chocolate
- Figure 49: Attitudes and opinions about purchasing/giving seasonal chocolate, June 2005
- Figure 50: Attitudes and opinions about purchasing/giving seasonal chocolate, by gender, June 2005
- Figure 51: Attitudes and opinions about purchasing/giving seasonal chocolate, by age, June 2005
- Figure 52: Attitudes and opinions about purchasing/giving seasonal chocolate, by household income, June 2005
- Figure 53: Attitudes and opinions about purchasing/giving seasonal chocolate, by presence of children in household, June 2005
- Purchase venues for seasonal chocolate
- Figure 54: Purchase venues for seasonal chocolate, June 2005
- Figure 55: Purchase venues for seasonal chocolate, by age, June 2005
- Figure 56: Purchase venues for seasonal chocolate, by household income, June 2005
- Summary
- Future and Forecast
- Future trends
- Increasing "chocolate" holiday occasions
- Emphasizing premium seasonal chocolate
- Growing number of products at different price points
- Opportunities for natural and organic manufacturers
- Market forecast
- Seasonal chocolate confectionery
- Figure 57: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
- Figure 58: Graph: Trends in sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery 1999-2009
- Easter chocolate
- Figure 59: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of Easter chocolate, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
- Christmas chocolate
- Figure 60: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of Christmas chocolate, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
- Valentine' s Day chocolate
- Figure 61: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of Valentine' s Day chocolate, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
- Halloween chocolate
- Figure 62: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of Halloween chocolate, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
- Forecast factors
- Market Size and Trends--Update
- Figure 63: Sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Market Segmentation--Update
- Overview
- Figure 64: FDM sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, segmented by type, 2004 and 2006
- Easter chocolate confectionery
- Figure 65: FDM sales of Easter chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Christmas chocolate confectionery
- Figure 66: FDM sales of Christmas chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Valentine' s Day chocolate confectionery
- Figure 67: FDM sales of Valentine' s Day chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2004-06
- Halloween chocolate confectionery
- Figure 68: FDM sales of Halloween chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Other seasonal chocolate confectionery
- Figure 69: FDM sales of other seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
- Future and Forecast--Update
- Future trends
- Increasing "chocolate" holiday occasions
- Emphasizing premium seasonal chocolate
- Growing number of products at different price points
- Opportunities for natural and organic manufacturers
- Market forecast--Updated
- Seasonal chocolate confectionery
- Figure 70: Forecast of total U.S. sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Easter chocolate confectionery
- Figure 71: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of Easter chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Christmas chocolate confectionery
- Figure 72: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of Christmas chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Valentine' s Day chocolate confectionery
- Figure 73: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of Valentine' s Day chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Halloween chocolate confectionery
- Figure 74: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of Halloween chocolate confectionery, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
- Appendix: Trade Associations
- Appendix: New Product Briefs
- Hershey Foods: Milk Chocolate Easter Bunny Pop
- Nestlé USA: Grand Celeggbrations Hollow Chocolate Egg
- Joseph Schmidt Confections: Deco Easter Egg
- Russell Stover Candies: Net Carb Marshmallow Rabbit
- Hershey Chocolate USA: Special Valentine Design Chocolate Bar
- Marshall Field' s Frango: Caramel Hearts
- Lindt & Sprungli: Lindor Truffles (Christmas Packaging)
- Appendix: Research Methodology
- Consumer Research
- Sampling & Weighting
- Technometrica TechnoExpresssm
- ICR Surveys EXCEL
- Simmons National Consumer Surveys
- Greenfield Online
- Presentation & Definition
- Further Analysis
- Trade Research
- Informal trade research
- Formal trade research
- Desk & Internet Research
- Sources
- Definitions
- Forecasts
