美國冰淇淋市場

Abstract

The FDM packaged ice cream market grew 17% in current dollars, or 3% in constant 2004 dollars, from 1999-2004, fueled by unprecedented levels of product innovation and the emergence of a better-for-you sector that transformed the look of the ice cream aisle. The $6.8 billion category comprises a wide variety of products including ice cream, frozen yogurt, frozen soy-based desserts, sherbet, sorbet, ices, and frozen novelties. The majority of product innovation that took place over the period was focused on ice cream and frozen novelties, leading those segments to steal attention and market share from frozen yogurt, sherbet, sorbet and ices.

Ice cream, the largest segment which accounted for 59% of 2004 dollar sales, grew 14% over the period from 1999-2004, driven by an onrush of new products designed to meet the needs of both indulgence-seekers and health-conscious consumers. In the premium ice cream sector, manufacturers launched dozens of indulgent, new flavors--many featuring big chunks of popular candies, cookies, brownies--in an effort to defend themselves against the swift expansion of ice cream chains like Cold Stone Creamery and Marble Slab Creamery, where consumers choose their own concoction of candy, cookie, and other mix-in ingredients. On the other end of the ice cream spectrum, in the burgeoning better-for-you sector, manufacturers launched myriad low-carb and light ice cream products in response to the growing popularity of low-carb diets and heightened consumer concern about obesity.

The frozen novelties segment grew faster than any other segment over the period. Sales of novelties increased 30%, driven by an influx of new, better-for-you offerings, as well as a high level of co-branding that helped raise product awareness.

Share in the ice cream market became increasingly concentrated over the period due to a series of mergers and acquisitions. Two companies--Unilever and Dryer's Grand Ice Cream Holdings--together accounted for nearly 43% of sales in 2004. Industry consolidation has resulted in an increasingly competitive environment where the market leaders are investing more in marketing and new product development in order to protect and grow their investments. Given this environment, Mintel expects that the category will continue to grow at a moderate pace over the next several years.

This report examines the U.S. market for ice cream and frozen novelty products that are purchased for home consumption. It does not include ice cream and frozen novelty products purchased from roadside stands, concessions, vending machines or kiosks. Also excluded are ice cream purchases at ice cream shops, soda fountains, fast food restaurants, or other eateries, which may be intended either for on-the-go eating or for at-home consumption.

Table of Contents

Introduction and Abbreviations

• Introduction
• Other relevant reports
• Definition
• Abbreviations & terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms

Executive Summary

• Growing market fueled by product innovation
• Ice cream and frozen novelties drive category growth
• Industry consolidation
• Advertising spending low but increasing
• Channel shift from supermarkets to value and easy in-and-out formats
• The ice cream consumer
• Everyone loves ice cream
• Brand loyalty
• The future of packaged ice cream

Market Drivers

• A trend towards industry consolidation
• Healthier eating trend
• Low-carbohydrate diet trend
• Childhood obesity epidemic
• Record level of product innovation
  • Figure 1: Number of new ice cream products launched, 1999-2005
  • Figure 2: Graph: Ice cream new product launches, 1999-2005*
  • Figure 3: Product positioning claims of new product launches, 2004
• Premium products on the rise
• Frozen novelty segment seeing increased innovation
• Aging population
  • Figure 4: U.S. population projections, by age, 2005-2010
  • Figure 5: Types of ice cream consumed by households, by age of head of household, January-September 2004
• Competition from scoop shops

Market Size and Trends

• Figure 6: FDM sales of ice cream, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Figure 7: Graph: Trends in FDM sales of ice cream, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004

Market Segmentation

• Overview
  • Figure 8: FDM sales of ice cream products, by type, 2002 and 2004
  • Figure 9: Graph: FDM sales of ice cream, by product type, 2004
• Ice cream
  • Figure 10: FDM sales of ice cream, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Frozen novelties
  • Figure 11: FDM sales of frozen novelties, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Sherbet, sorbet and ices
  • Figure 12: FDM sales of sherbet, sorbet and ices, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Frozen yogurt and tofu
  • Figure 13: FDM sales of frozen yogurt and tofu, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004

Supply Structure

• Foreign trade
• Imports
  • Figure 14: Ice cream and other edible ice product imports, by source country/region, 2003 and 2004
• Exports
  • Figure 15: Ice cream and other edible ice product exports, by destination country/region, 2003 and 2004
• Company and brand sales
• FDM sales by manufacturer
  • Figure 16: FDM sales of ice cream products*, by manufacturer sales, 2003 and 2004
  • Figure 17: Graph: FDM sales of ice cream, by manufacturer, 2004
• FDM sales by manufacturer & brand
• Ice cream
  • Figure 18: FDM sales of ice cream, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004
• Frozen novelties
  • Figure 19: FDM sales of frozen novelties, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004
• Frozen yogurt/tofu, sherbet, sorbet and ices
  • Figure 20: FDM sales of frozen yogurt/tofu, sherbet, sorbet and ices, by manufacturer and brand, 2003 and 2004
• Major manufacturers and brands
• Unilever
• Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream Holdings, Inc.
• CoolBrands International, Inc.
• Blue Bell Creameries, L.P.
• Wells' Dairy Inc.
• HP Hood LLC
• Turkey Hill Dairy

Advertising and Promotion

• Introduction
• Industry-wide promotion
• Major companies and brands
• Unilever
• Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream Holdings, Inc.
• CoolBrands International, Inc.
• Blue Bell Creameries, L.P.
• Retail Distribution
• Introduction
  • Figure 21: FDM sales of ice cream products, by channel, 2002 and 2004
• Supermarkets
  • Figure 22: Supermarket sales of ice cream products, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Drug stores
• Mass merchandisers and clubs
• The role of Wal-Mart
  • Figure 23: Graph: Wal-Mart sales, 1994-2004
• Convenience stores
• Dollar stores

The Consumer

• Introduction
• Household consumption of ice cream
  • Figure 24: Household consumption of ice cream, January-September 2004
  • Figure 25: Household consumption of ice cream, by age of head of household, January-September 2004
  • Figure 26: Consumption of ice cream, by presenece of children in household, January-September 2004
  • Figure 27: Consumption of ice cream, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2004
• Type, brand and amount of ice cream consumed by households
  • Figure 28: Types, brands and amount of ice cream consumed by households, January-September 2004
  • Figure 29: Types, brands and amount of ice cream consumed by households, by age of head of household, January-September 2004
  • Figure 30: Types, brands and amount of ice cream consumed by households, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2004
  • Figure 31: Types, brands and amount of ice cream consumed by households, by presence of children in household, January-September 2004
• Frozen yogurt
• Personal consumption of frozen yogurt
  • Figure 32: Consumption of frozen yogurt, January-September 2004
  • Figure 33: Consumption of frozen yogurt, by gender, January-September 2004
• Consumption of frozen yogurt by type, sole brand usage, and quantity
  • Figure 34: Types and quantity of frozen yogurt consumed, January-September 2004
  • Figure 35: Types and quantity of frozen yogurt consumed, by race/ethnicity, January-September 2004
• Brand loyalty
  • Figure 36: Brand loyalty in ice cream purchases, April 2005
  • Figure 37: Brand loyalty in ice cream purchases, by age, April 2005
• Attitudes towards ice cream
  • Figure 38: Opinions about ice cream, April 2005
  • Figure 39: Opinions about ice cream, by age, January 2004-September 2004
• Where ice cream is purchased
  • Figure 40: Where respondents purchase ice cream, April 2005
  • Figure 41: Where respondents purchase ice cream, by age, April 2005
  • Figure 42: Where respondents purchase ice cream, by presence of children, April 2005
• Kids' and teens' consumption of ice cream
  • Figure 43: Kids' & teens' consumption of ice cream, January-September 2004

Summary and conclusions

Future and Forecast

• Future trends
• High level of innovation will continue
• More better-for-you products
• More indulgent products
• More co-branding
• More ethnic flavors
• More products targeted to older adults
• Ice cream positioned as the "healthy" dessert
• Growth in alternative channels

Market forecast

• Overview
  • Figure 44: Forecast of total FDM sales of ice cream products, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
  • Figure 45: Graph: Forecast trends in FDM sales of ice cream products, current and constant prices, 2004-2009
• Ice cream
  • Figure 46: Forecast of FDM sales of ice cream, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
• Frozen novelties
  • Figure 47: Forecast of FDM sales of frozen novelties, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
• Sherbet, sorbet, and ices
  • Figure 48: Forecast of FDM sales of sherbet, sorbet, and ices, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
• Frozen yogurt and tofu
  • Figure 49: Forecast of FDM sales of frozen yogurt and tofu, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
• Forecast factors
• Product innovation
• Dietary factors
• Health and obesity factors

Market Size and Trends - Update

• Figure 50: Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
• Estimating Wal-Mart

Market Segmentation - Update

• Overview
  • Figure 51: FDM sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, segmented by type, 2004 and 2006
• Ice cream
  • Figure 52: FDM sales of ice cream, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
• Frozen novelties
  • Figure 53: FDM sales of frozen novelties, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
• Sherbet, sorbet, and ices
  • Figure 54: FDM sales sherbet, sorbet, and ices, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
• Frozen yogurt and tofu
  • Figure 55: FDM sales of frozen yogurt and tofu, at current and constant prices, 2001-06

Future and Forecast - Update

• Future trends
• High level of innovation will continue
• More better-for-you products
• More indulgent products
• More co-branding
• More ethnic flavors
• More products targeted to older adults
• Ice cream positioned as the "healthy" dessert
• Growth in alternative channels

Market forecast - Updated

• Ice cream and frozen novelties
  • Figure 56: Forecast of total U.S. sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
• Ice cream
  • Figure 57: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of ice cream, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
• Frozen novelties
  • Figure 58: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of frozen novelties, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
• Sherbet, sorbet, and ices
  • Figure 59: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of sherbet, sorbet, and ices, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
• Frozen yogurt and tofu
  • Figure 60: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of frozen yogurt and tofu, at current and constant prices, 2006-11

Appendix: Trade Associations

• National & international associations
• Regional associations
• State associations

Appendix: New Product Briefs

• Blue Bell Creameries: Blue Bell Tropical Passion Ice Cream
• Kemp's Ice Cream: Kemps Pillsbury Frozen Novelties
• Good Humor-Breyers: Breyers Ice Cream Repackaging
• HP Hood: Hood Fat Free Frozen Yogurt
• Ben & Jerry's Homemade: Ben & Jerry's Half Baked Cookie Dough Ice Cream Bar
• Edy's Grand Ice Cream: Edy's Slow Churned Rich & Creamy Light Ice Cream
• Friendly Ice Cream: Friendly's No Sugar Added Light Ice Cream
• Unilever: Popsicle Marvel Fantastic Four Flavored Ice Pops
• Kemp's Ice Cream: Kemps Live Healthy Frozen Novelties
• Edy's Grand Ice Cream: Edy's Dibs Bite Sized Ice Cream Snacks

Appendix: Research Methodology

• Consumer Research
• Sampling & Weighting
• TechnoMetrica TechnoExpresssm
• ICR Surveys EXCEL
• Simmons National Consumer Surveys
• Greenfield Online
• Presentation & Definition
• Further Analysis
• Trade Research
• Informal trade research
• Formal trade research
• Desk & Internet Research
• Sources
• Definitions
• Forecasts

Appendix: What is Mintel?

• Mintel Group
• Mintel Reports
• Mintel Premier
• Mintel ECLIPS
• GNPD
• Menu Insights
• Comperemedia
• Brokertrack
• Mintel Services
• Applied Research
• Mintel Consulting
• POS+