亞洲航空市場 2006 年 3 月版

Abstract

The Asia-Pacific region has enjoyed steady expansion of air traffic since the end of the 1990s, with the exception of the first half of 2003, which was marred by the crisis that followed the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Since January 1999 international passenger revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) has grown by approximately 37%. The growth in freight transport has been even stronger, rising by around 70% over the period, as measured by freight tonne kilometres (FTKs). By comparison with the rest of the world, the Asian airline sector is leveraged to cargo activities in particular, especially on long-haul transcontinental routes as opposed to passenger transport.

Currently, growth is shifting more to the regions domestic markets and short-haul travel with the launching of new airlines, and especially low-cost carriers (LCCs). This development has been made possible by the progressive deregulation of air space, especially in key markets such as China and India, which should continue to see rapid expansion in air traffic, and aircraft capacity. Indeed, LCCs are gaining significant share in most markets, but not always directly at the expense of traditional airlines. In many cases, these new entrants are expanding the market for air travel, tapping into segments of the population that were not previously travelling by air.

Over the last 18 months, airlines, both in Asia and around the world, have been under severe margin pressure due to the spectacular rise in the price of jet fuel. The airlines have reacted by imposing fuel surcharges, which have compensated the increased cost only to a limited extent. Another approach has involved rationalising routes and resolving bottlenecks at airports to avoid having aircraft burning extra fuel unnecessarily. In this difficult trading environment, it is becoming increasingly clear which airlines are adapting and surviving and which are floundering. Although LCCs have generated significant volumes of business and market share gains, it remains to be seen whether their business model is financially viable in the medium to long term. There has already been some degree of shakeout and consolidation in the sector, with more to come.

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• Current economic outlook
  • Figure 1: Forecast for GDP growth in theOECD economies of the Asia-Pacific region
• Expenditure
  • Figure 2: Travel & Tourism spending*by Asia-Pacific sub-region 2006-16
  • Figure 3: Projected spending* on T&Tby principal country 2006-16
  • Figure 4: Incoming tourism receipts byAsia-Pacific sub-region 2006-16
  • Figure 5: Incoming tourism receipts bymajor country 2006-16
• China
• The Chinese outbound market
  • Figure 6: Chinese outbound departures,1995-2005
  • Figure 7: Chinese outbound travel byAsia-Pacific region, 2004
• Chinese inbound tourism and receipts
  • Figure 8: Chinese inbound tourism andreceipts, 1996-2004
  • Figure 9: Comparison of growth ratesbetween domestic and inbound tourism and receipts, 1997-2004
  • Figure 10: The top 20 inbound sourcemarkets for China in 2004
  • Figure 11: Top tourism-generatingcountries for China, 2004
  • Figure 12: Foreign arrivals in China bypurpose of visit, 2004
  • Figure 13: Tourist arrivals in China bymode of transport, 2004
• Australia
• Data Sources
• International Air Transport Association (IATA)
• Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA)
  • Figure 14: Airline members of the AAPA
• Center for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA)
• Recent Trends in Traffic Volume
• Domestic
• International
  • Figure 15: IATA international air trafficstatistics: year-end 2005/04
  • Figure 16: Top ten passenger inter-countrypairs for AAPA airlines
  • Figure 17: Top ten passenger routes forAAPA airlines between two cities
• Air freight
  • Figure 18: Top ten inter-country air cargopairs for AAPA airlines
  • Figure 19: Top ten air cargo routesbetween cities for AAPA-affiliated airlines
• Airport development & expansion
• India
• Sri Lanka
• Mainland China
• Hong Kong
• Macao
• Malaysia
• Singapore
• Korea
• Japan
• Thailand
• The Philippines
• Indonesia
• Vietnam
• Australia
• New Zealand
• Pacific Islands
• Airline profitability
  • Figure 20: Composite results for AAPAmember airlines (in US$ thousands)
  • Figure 21: Oil price vs. jet fuel
  • Figure 22: Trend in fuel expense forSingapore Airlines passenger operations (in S$ millions)
  • Figure 23: Breakdown of costs forSingapore Airlines passenger operations for the half year ended 27October 2005
• Deregulation & Privatisation (by major country)
• Low-cost Carriers (LCCs)
• LCCs broaden the overall air travel market
• Asia-Pacific LCCs face some important challenges
• LCCs have caused some price wars
• Hong Kong, Macao and Malaysia
  • Figure 24: LCCs based in Hong Kong, Macaoand Malaysia
• Hong Kong Express (HKE)
• Oasis Airways
• AirAsia
  • Figure 25: AirAsias passenger trafficFY 2005/06
  • Figure 26: AirAsias passenger trafficin Malaysia FY 2005/06
  • Figure 27: AirAsias passenger trafficin Thailand FY 2005/06
  • Figure 28: AirAsias passenger trafficin Indonesia FY 2005-06
  • Figure 29: AirAsia distribution channelsFY 2005
  • Figure 30: Shareholders of AirAsia
  • Figure 31: Second quarter operatingstatistics for AirAsias Malaysian operations FY 2006
  • Figure 32: Second quarter and first halffinancial results* for AirAsias FY 2006
  • Figure 33: Analysts consensus revenueand earnings estimates for AirAsia
• Macao
• Indonesia
  • Figure 34: Indonesia-based LCCs
• Indonesia Air Asia
• Citilink
• Lion Air
• Adam Air
• Japan
  • Figure 35: Japanese LCCs
• Air Do Hokkaido International Airlines (Air Do)
• StarFlyer
• Skymark
• Skynet Asia Airways
• Philippines
  • Figure 36: Philippine-based LCCs
• Air Philippines
• Cebu Pacific
• South East Asian Airlines (Seair)
• Singapore
  • Figure 37: Singapore-based LCCs
• Jetstar Asia Airways/Valuair
• Tiger Airways
  • Figure 38: Tiger Airways route network
• Thailand
  • Figure 39: Thai low-cost carriers
• Nok Air
• One-Two-Go
• Thai Air Asia
• Australia and New Zealand
  • Figure 40: Low-cost carriers in Australia& New Zealand
• Jetstar Airways (Jetstar)
• OzJet Airlines
• Virgin Blue
  • Figure 41: Operating performance data forVirgin Blue Airlines
  • Figure 42: Financial performance data forVirgin Blue Airlines
• Pacific Blue
• Freedom Air
• India
  • Figure 43: Indian LCCs
• SpiceJet
• Air Deccan
• Air India Express
• Kingfisher Airlines
• GoAir
• Paramount Airways
• China
• Okay Airlines
• United Eagle Airlines
• China United Airlines
• Spring Airlines
• Major Asia-Pacific Airlines
• Australia
• Qantas
• Australian Airlines
• Jetstar
• Bangladesh
• Biman Bangladesh Airlines
• China
• China Southern Airlines
  • Figure 44: The corporate structure ofChina Southern Airlines Company Limited
  • Figure 45: China Southern Airlinespassenger operating statistics: 2004 versus 2003
  • Figure 46: China Southerns stock price1998-2006 (NYSE)
• Air China
  • Figure 47: Corporate structure of AirChina Limited
  • Figure 48: Air China monthly and 12-monthcumulative operating data-Dec 2005
• China Eastern Airlines
• Hong Kong
• Cathay Pacific
  • Figure 50: Major Subsidiaries of CathayPacific
  • Figure 51: Cathay Pacific share price(American ADR* in US$)
• India
  • Figure 52: Main scheduled passengerairlines in the Indian subcontinent, 1991-2005
• Jet Airways
  • Figure 53: Jet Airways-Air Saharasynergies
  • Figure 54: Jet Airways operating data forthe nine months ended 31 December 2005
  • Figure 55: Jet Airways financialperformance for the nine months ended December 2005
  • Figure 56: Jet Airways share pricesince issuance
• Air India and Air India Express
  • Figure 57: Air Indias approximateweekly international cargo capacity
• Air India ExpressIndian (formerly Indian Airlines) and Alliance Air
• Indonesia
• Garuda Indonesia
  • Figure 58: Trend in Garudas passengertraffic 1991-2003
• Japan
• Japan Airlines Corporation (JAL)
  • Figure 59: The Japan Airlinesinternational fleet, end 2004
• All Nippon Airways (ANA)
  • Figure 60: All Nippon Airlines passengerrevenues 2000-04 (In ¥m)
  • Figure 61: Trends in All NipponAirlines operating income and margins
• Korea
• Korean Air
  • Figure 62: Korean Airs fleet as ofJanuary 2006
• Asiana Airlines, Inc
• Malaysia
• Malaysia Airlines (MAS)
  • Figure 63: List of five largestshareholders in Malaysia Airlines
• Royal Brunei Airlines (RBA)
• Myanmar (Burma)
• Myanmar Airways International
• North Pacific Ocean Islands and South Pacific Ocean Islands
• Air Vanuatu and Solomon Airlines
• Air Rarotonga
• Air Fiji
• Air Pacific
• New Zealand
• Air New Zealand
  • Figure 64: Historical Summary of keyoperating statistics
• Pakistan
• Pakistan International Airlines
  • Figure 65: Pakistan InternationalAirlines turnover by region, FY 2004/05
• Aero Asia International
• Shaheen Air International
• Airblue
• The Philippines
• Philippine Airlines
• Singapore
• Singapore Airlines (SIA)
  • Figure 66: Singapore Airlines financialperformance
  • Figure 67: Singapore Airlines stockprice
• SilkAir
• Taiwan
• China Airlines
  • Figure 68: China Airlines fleet
• EVA Air
  • Figure 69: Eva Air operating data for 2005
  • Figure 70: Eva Air freight data for 2005
  • Figure 71: Eva Air employees: as of March2006
  • Figure 72: Eva Airs financialperformance 2000-04
  • Figure 73: Eva Airs fleet
• Thailand
• Thai Airways International (THAI)
  • Figure 74: Aircraft delivery schedule forThai
• Vietnam
• Vietnam Airlines
  • Figure 75: Vietnam Airlines fleet of 39aircraft
• Pacific Airlines
• Outlook
  • Figure 76: International air trafficgrowth by key route area, 2005-09
  • Figure 77: Top five countries by rate ofgrowth for international traffic, 2005-09
  • Figure 78: The fastest growingAsia-Pacific countries for international passenger air transport,2005-09
  • Figure 79: The fastest growing Asiancountries for international air cargo transport, 2005-09