印度寬頻無線及WiMAX市場：市場分析・預測（2007年至2014年） 第2版

Abstract

The broadband-hungry nation of India might just be waking up to realities. For starters, 2 007 could well become the Preparatory Year of Wireless Broadband. Although the former Minister of Telecommunications in India proclaimed 2007 as the Year of Broadband for India, 2008 will instead become the Year of Wireless Broadband for India. Despite the unmet requirement to free bandwidth from various stakeholders, the key engines for broadband growth - the operators - are not willing to wait. Genuine Indian innovation is at work as vendors, operators, and system integrators are coming together like neve r before to work with whatever is available to trigger a bandwidth revolution.

Leading Indian private operators, as well as incumbents, are working together in narrow 12 MHz channels of 3.3-3.4 GHz to deploy WiMAX services where possible. Notable among t hese are Reliance, the master operator who currently operates the nation' s largest CDMA network of over 29 million subscribers (as of July 2007) and has already started commercial WiMAX services in Bangalore, and Aircel, the Maxis Communication Bernhard (M alaysia) owned ISP that has been providing WiMAX-based backhaul services and leased bandwidth for corporations for over a year.

The Big Carriers: Rearing to Go

A major trend is evident in that in September, two large carriers have brought out RFP/RFIs f or Mobile WiMAX. BSNL will require upwards of 100,000 CPEs (with all options taken over two phases, this count can go up to 200,000) and 1000 base stations across the country. This is apart from a separate BWA/WiMAX requirement for commercial urban broadba nd that is in the works. VSNL, a Tata company, has also released an RFI for a large 802.16e -2005 based system for over 500,000 CPEs in a phased manner. (Note: An RFI does not mean a firm commitment to place purchase orders.)

Bharti Airtel is looking to spread BWA/WiMAX to 300 towns targeting 50,000 SME customers in 2007 using a combination of 3.3 -3.4 GHz and 5.8 GHz frequencies. BSNL, which launched the mother of all telco tenders for 60 million GSM lines in 2006, is in the early stages of drafting the RFP for what could become the largest ever BWA/WiMAX purchase requirement from a public - sector operator. The requirement is for 1000 base stations and 100,000 CPEs for a single project. Judging by some of the plans of Reliance, we believe that the company' s extended plans include a massive requirement for 1 million CPEs over the next 12 months. Parts of the plan are already frozen, and vendor evaluations are undergoing completion. Of course, the realization of the entire plan may be subject to political and technology issues such as rapid resolution of spectrum issues. However, we believe that in a worst case scenario, these projects will still move forward with at least 15% real deployment in the next 8 months.

One of the impediments identified in our Indi a BWA/WiMAX Report 2006 was that the WiMAX CPE pricing may become a strong barrier in early penetration of WiMAX services. Leading -edge Indian vendors, such as Telsima, breaking the price barrier by over 50% as early as Q2 2007, has broadened the possibilities. Reliance, unsurprisingly, has brought WiMAX closer to reality by adopting a market-friendly tariff plan that allows a subscriber to sign up at a minimal cost of about Rs 700 per month ($17) in Bangalore, where the service has first been launched. Rel iance has always been a mass-market leader, and it is not surprising that the company is leading the way in taking broadband to the masses at the best prices possible.

Secondary Sources

Maravedis always strives to provide its clients with a new and unique perspective of the industry based on its own research. To ensure that we add value to the information already available to stakeholders in the industry, we reviewed most of the market research available on broadband wireless access in India, including

• ITU Statistical Yearbook, 2006
• The World Bank Development Indicators, 2006
• Numerous articles
• Indian ISP Association

Primary Sources

Primary research is a lengthy but indispensable process for market r esearch because it yields data neither biased nor distorted by intermediaries. As part of this research, Maravedis and Tonse conducted interviews with the following:

• All service providers listed in the report
• The regulatory authorities
• National account managers and other key representatives of equipment vendors active in the Indian market

The survey took place from June to October 2007 and involved discussions with product managers, marketing executives, regulators, technologists and sales people at all organizational levels. We would like to thank all the participants in our survey for their time and contributions.

Executive Summary

1.0 Overview of India' s Telecom Market

• 1.1 Background
• 1.2 Chronology of Key Events that Shaped the Broadband Industry
• 1.3 State of the Telecom Market
  • 1.3.1 Top Trends in Indian Telecom in 2006 (January to December)
  • 1.3.2 Top Trends in Indian Telecom in 2007 (January to August)
• 1.4 Telecom Market Structure in India
  • 1.4.1 Changing Socio-demographics: New Areas of Demand

2.0 Internet Market in India

• 2.1 Background
  • 2.1.1 ISP License Scope: Current Aberrat ions and TRAI Recommendations
  • 2.1.2 What the ISPs are Complaining About: Competitive Access
  • 2.1.3 What is Currently Allowe d in IP Telephony in India
  • 2.1.4 Illegal IP Activities that have been Observed in India
  • 2.1.5 TRAI' s Recommendations on Re view of Internet Services (May 2007)
• 2.2 Internet Access: Shifting Patterns
  • 2.2.1 Cable Access to the Net
  • 2.2.2 Wi-Fi Hot Spots
• 2.3 Broadband Scenarios
• 2.4 Broadband Market Enab lers

3.0 Broadband Wireless Access

• 3.1 Drivers for Broadband Wireless Access
  • 3.1.1 Wi-Fi Hot Spot Availability
  • 3.1.2 New Drivers: Emerging Home User Segment
  • 3.1.3 Alternative Wireless Data Access
  • 3.1.4 Early WiMAX Service Introduction in India
• 3.2 Opportunities for WiMAX in India
  • 3.2.1 Government Initiatives
  • 3.2.2 State Wide Area Networks (SWAN) Project
• 3.3 Challenges for Growth of WiMAX Industry in India
  • 3.3.1 Domestic PC Penetration, Income Levels, and Literacy
  • 3.3.2 Rural India: Basic Voice Connectivity is a Top Priority
  • 3.3.3 Alternative Broadband Technologies
  • 3.3.4 Spectrum Challenges

4.0 Regulatory Environment

• 4.1 Government Entities
  • 4.1.1 TRAI - Telecom Regulatory Authority of India
  • 4.1.2 DoT - Department of Telecommunication
  • 4.1.3 WPC - Wireless Planning and Coordination Wing
  • 4.1.4 TEC - Telecommunications Engineering Centre
• 4.2 Spectrum Debate
  • 4.2.1 TRAI BWA Spectrum Recommendations (September 2006) and Update
  • 4.2.2 Current Ownership in 3.3 -3.4 GHz Band
  • 4.2.3 Spectrum Bands Sought for BWA/WiMAX Usage
• 4.3 General BWA Recommendation
• 4.4 Pricing Structure for Spectrum (2.3- 5.8 GHz) as charged by WPC India

5.0 BWA/WiMAX Service Provider Analysis

• 5.1 VSNL
• 5.2 Reliance Communications
• 5.3 SIFY
• 5.4 BSNL
• 5.5 Bharti Airtel
• 5.6 MTNL
• 5.7 Railtel
• 5.8 Aircel
• 5.9 HCL Infinet

6.0 BWA/WiMAX Equipment Vendor Analysis

• 6.1 Airspan
• 6.2 Alvarion
• 6.3 Aperto Networks
• 6.4 Beceem
• 6.5 C-DOT Alcatel Research Center (CARC)
• 6.6 Navini Networks
• 6.7 Nortel
• 6.8 Intel
• 6.9 Redline Communications
• 6.10 POSDATA
• 6.11 Proxim
• 6.12 Sloka
• 6.13 Telsima

7.0 Emerging BWA/WiMAX System Integrators and Service Providers in India

• 7.1 Microsense
• 7.2 Convergent Networks
• 7.3 Gemini Communications
• 7.4 ORG Informatics
• 7.5 Spanco Telesystems and Solutions
• 7.6 Infozech
• 7.7 Indian Tech Companies that are Members of the WiMAX Forum
• 7.8 Summary of Service Provider Expectations for WiMAX in India for 2007
• 8.0 Market Forecasts 2007- 2014

• Exhibit 1. Map of India and surrounding territory
• Exhibit 2. Market structure of leading carriers in India
• Exhibit 3. Fixed and mobile subscribe r growth
• Exhibit 4. Fixed telephony subscriber growth
• Exhibit 5. Widening rural and urban tele -density gap
• Exhibit 6. GSM operator subscriber base as of July 2007
• Exhibit 7. Growth of fixed, GSM, and CDMA subscribers in 2007
• Exhibit 8. Falling mobile ARPU over the last 6 years
• Exhibit 9. Indian Internet subscriber base
• Exhibit 10. Internet subscriber market share
• Exhibit 11. Internet subscriber base, by technology
• Exhibit 12. Operators providing Internet access via cable
• Exhibit 13. BSNL' s planned Wi-Fi hot spots, count by city
• Exhibit 14. Effective per-hour Internet rates, India
• Exhibit 15. Growth in broadband connections in India
• Exhibit 16. Growth in broadband subscriber market share, by carrier
• Exhibit 17. Growth in desktop shipments in India
• Exhibit 18. Subscriber projections underlying broadband policy of India in 2004
• Exhibit 19. Spectrum assignments in the 3.3 -3.4 GHz band
• Exhibit 20. Government-operated spectrum sought for release
• Exhibit 21. GSM subscriber-based spectrum allocation criteria
• Exhibit 22. CDMA subscriber -based spectrum allocation criteria
• Exhibit 23. GSM and CDMA subscribers, spectrum, and channels
• Exhibit 24. Spectrum pricing in India
• Exhibit 25. Universal Service Obliga tion (USO) Fund financials
• Exhibit 26. Reliance WiMAX tariffs and charges
• Exhibit 27. BSNL vital statistics
• Exhibit 28. BSNL WiMAX trial locations
• Exhibit 29. Equipment requirements of BSNL WiMAX tender
• Exhibit 30. Specifications of BSNL bro adband tariff, June 2007
• Exhibit 31. MTNL vital statistics
• Exhibit 32. Indian companies in the WiMAX Forum
• Exhibit 33. Hypothetical BWA requirements analysis for Mumbai
• Exhibit 34. PC shipment forecast, through 2012
• Exhibit 35. Wireless notebook and PDA shipment forecast, through 2012
• Exhibit 36. WiMAX wireless notebook and PDA shipment forecast
• Exhibit 37. Wireless notebook and PDA cumulative forecast, through 2012
• Exhibit 38. BWA and WiMAX base station annual shipments
• Exhibit 39. Trends in pricing and deployment of CPE for BWA and WiMAX
• Exhibit 40. Forecast of shipments of standalone BWA CPE versus WiMAX wireless notebooks and PDAs
• Exhibit 41. Forecast sales volume of BS and CPE for BWA and WiMAX
• Exhibit 42. WiMAX chip market forecast
• Exhibit 43. Cumulative sales forecast for equipment supporting BWA and WiMAX
• Exhibit 44. Sales forecast for WiMAX equipment, with and without chips
• Exhibit 45. Annual BWA/WiMAX equipment sales forecast, by frequency band
• Exhibit 46. WiMAX equipment penetration forecast, as a percentage of BWA shipments
• Exhibit 47. WiMAX standalone CPE shipment forecast
• Exhibit 48. WiMAX base station shipment forecast
• Exhibit 49. Annual subscriber forecast for BWA and WiMAX
• Exhibit 50. Cumulative subscriber forecast for BWA and WiMAX
• Exhibit 51. Annual WiMAX subscriber forecast, fixed versus mobile