最後一哩市場中WiMAX的商機（2008年至2013年）

Overview

This comprehensive report provides a complete assessment of the opportunities for 802.16e WiMAX to replace DSL as a "last mile" technology.The report examines the key drivers and inhibitors for this wireless broadband technology and the detailed assessment also provides case studies on a number of 802.16e operators based on one-on-one interviews with key industry players. The primary target market focus of 55 service providers who have made recent commercial network announcements is analysed, and the report compares the advantages and disadvantages of the various last mile technology alternatives.

Furthermore this thorough appraisal of the future opportunities for 802.16e WiMAX forecasts five year subscriber numbers and service revenues up until 2013 for fixed 802.16e WiMAX globally and by region for eight regions, along with ARPU and device markets.

• At what rate will the regional DSL subscriber base migrate to WiMAX?
• How large will the fixed WiMAX market be over 5 years?
• What do key industry players believe are the market drivers and inhibitors for fixed WiMAX?
• How much service revenue will be generated by fixed WiMAX?
• Which will be the top fixed WiMAX regional markets in the future?
• How will fixed WiMAX average revenue per user (ARPU) trends change over the next 5 years?
• Which countries have new fixed WiMAX trials and networks been awarded to?
• How will fixed WiMAX network operators be deploying their networks?

• GLOSSARY
• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Fixed WiMAX Subscriber Forecast
  • Figure ES.1: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) by Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure ES.2: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX 2013 Subscriber Base (%) Regional Forecast
  • Figure ES.3: DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) Global Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure ES.4: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (%) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure ES.5: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($bn) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure ES.6: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market Size (m Subscribers) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure ES.7: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Device Market Forecast ($m) Global Forecast, 2008 - 2013
• Key Market Trends for Fixed 802.16e WiMAX
• Main WiMAX Drivers
• Main WiMAX Inhibitors
• Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market Status
• Operator Case Studies
• Recommendations
• Fixed WiMAX Service Providers
• Fixed WiMAX Vendors

1. LAST MILE BROADBAND - THE TECHNOLOGIES

• 1.1 WiMAX
  • 1.1.1 OFDM
    • Figure 1.1: OFDM Spectrum
• 1.2 Fixed WiMAX (802.16d-2004)
• 1.3 Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-2005)
  • Figure 1.2: WiMAX Timeline
  • Figure 1.3: Difference between OFDM and OFDMA
  • Table 1.1: Scalable OFDM: Sub Carrier Permutations
• 1.4 Duplexing Techniques
  • 1.4.1 FDD (Frequency Division Duplexing)
    • Figure 1.4: Frequency Division Duplexing
  • 1.4.2 TDD (Time Division Duplexing)
    • Figure 1.5: Time Division Duplexing
• 1.5 HSPA (High Speed Packet Access)
  • Figure 1.6: HSDPA Performance Improvements
  • Figure 1.7: LTE Migration to Packet Core
• 1.6 CDMA 1X EVDO and UMB
• 1.7 Competing Broadband Access Technologies
  • 1.7.1 ADSL
    • i. Comparison of ADSL with WiMAX
  • 1.7.2 WiFi and Mesh Networking
    • Table 1.2: List of WiFi Standards
    • Figure 1.8: WiFi Mesh Network
    • i. QoS (Quality of Service) in WiFi
    • ii. Differences between WiMAX 802.16e and WiFi
      • Table 1.3: Comparison of Fixed WiMAX (802.16-2004) and 802.11
    • iii. WiFi Mesh and Mobile WiMAX
  • 1.7.3 Satellite
    • i. Satellite and Fixed WiMAX
• 1.8 Industry Associations
  • 1.8.1 WiMAX Forum
    • Table: 1.4: WiMAX Forum Working Groups
  • 1.8.2 WiMAX Certification
    • Table: 1.5: The Certification Process
  • 1.8.3 WiMAX Spectrum Owners Alliance (WiSOA)
    • Table: 1.6: The WiSOA Working Groups
  • 1.8.4 DSL Forum
    • Figure 1.9: Broadbandsuite Release 2.0
    • Figure 1.10: Broadbandsuite Release 3.0
  • 1.8.5 Satellite Industry Association (SIA)
  • 1.8.6 WiFi Alliance
  • 1.8.7 GSM Association (GSMA)
    • Table: 1.7: The GSMA Working Groups
  • 1.8.8 CDMA Development Group (CDG)

2. MARKET TRENDS FOR WIMAX 802.16E

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 WiMAX Drivers
  • Table 2.1: Top WiMAX Drivers as Ranked by Survey Respondents
  • 2.2.1 100% IP
  • 2.2.2 Lack of Infrastructure in Developing Countries
  • 2.2.3 Attractive for Green Field Operators
  • 2.2.4 Spectrum Availability & Efficiency
  • 2.2.5 High QoS & Data Rate
  • 2.2.6 Fixed, Portable & Mobile Usage
• 2.3 WiMAX Inhibitors
  • Table 2.2: Top WiMAX Inhibitors as Ranked by Survey Respondents
  • 2.3.1 Widespread Commercial Availability Unlikely Before 2009
  • 2.3.2 Poor Mobility
  • 2.3.3 New Network Build Required
  • 2.3.4 Brand Identification and Service Differentiation
• 2.4 Conclusion

3. WIMAX 802.16E: MARKET STATUS

• 3.1 North America
  • 3.1.1 Overall Status
  • 3.1.2 Trial Examples
    • Table 3.1: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.1.3 Contract Examples
    • Table 3.2: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008
• 3.2 South America
  • 3.2.1 Overall Status
    • Table 3.3: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.2.2 Trial Examples
    • Table 3.4: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.2.3 Contract Examples
    • Table 3.5: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008
• 3.3 Western Europe
  • 3.3.1 Overall Status
    • Table 3.6: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.3.2 Trial Examples
    • Table 3.7: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.3.3 Contract Examples
    • Table 3.8: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008
• 3.4 Eastern Europe
  • 3.4.1 Overall Status
    • Table 3.9: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.4.2 Contract Examples
    • Table 3.10: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 to Q1 2008
• 3.5 Far East & China
  • 3.5.1 Overall Status
    • Table 3.11: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.5.2 Trial Examples
    • Table 3.12: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.5.3 Contract Examples
    • Table 3.13: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008
• 3.6 Indian Sub-Continent
  • 3.6.1 Overall Status
    • Table 3.14: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.6.2 Trial Examples
    • Table 3.15: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.6.3 Contract Examples
    • Table 3.16: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008
• 3.7 Rest of Asia-Pacific
  • 3.7.1 Overall Status
    • Table 3.17: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.7.2 Trial Examples
  • Table 3.18: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
• 3.8 Africa & Middle East
  • 3.8.1 Overall Status
    • Table 3.19: WiMAX Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.8.2 Trial Examples
    • Table 3.20: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Trial Announcements 2007 and Q1 2008
  • 3.8.3 Contract Examples
    • Table 3.21: WiMAX (802.16e-2005) Network Contracts 2007 and Q1 2008
• 3.9 Target Market Analysis
  • Table 3.22: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: N. America
  • Table 3.23: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: S. America
  • Table 3.24: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: W. Europe
  • Table 3.25: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: E. Europe
  • Table 3.26: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: Far East & China
  • Table 3.27: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: India Sub Continent
  • Table 3.28: WiMAX Service Provider Target Market Focus: Africa & Middle East
• 3.10 Conclusion

4. OPERATOR CASE STUDIES

• 4.1 Altech
  • i. Company Background
  • ii. Products & Services Overview
  • iii. WiMAX Network Description
  • iv. Future Developments
• 4.2 Danske Telecom
  • i. Company Background
  • ii. Products & Services Overview
  • iii. WiMAX Network Description
  • iv. Future Developments
• 4.3 DigitalBridge Communications (DBC)
  • i. Company Background
  • ii. Products & Services Overview
  • iii. WiMAX Network Description
  • iv. Future Developments
• 4.4 FREEDOM4
  • i. The Company
  • ii. Products & Services
  • iii. WiMAX Trial Details
  • iv. WiMAX Strategy
• 4.5 Nth Air
  • i. The Company
  • ii. Products & Services
  • iii. WiMAX Trial Details
  • iv. WiMAX Trial Feedback and Future Developments
• 4.6 Urban WiMAX
  • i. Company Background
  • ii. Products & Services Overview
  • iii. WiMAX Network Description
  • iv. Future Developments

5. GLOBAL FIXED 802.16E WIMAX FORECAST

• 5.1 Subscriber Forecasting Technique
  • 5.1.1 Overall Approach
  • 5.1.2 Methodology and Assumptions
    • Figure 5.1: W. Europe DSL Subscriber Base by Download Rates, at the End of 2006
    • Figure 5.2: % of DSL Subscribers with Download Speeds of 2Mbit/s or Less by Region 2006 - 2013
  • 5.1.3 Geographical Splits
• 5.2 Market Issues
  • 5.2.1 Devices
    • Figure 5.3: Types of WiMAX Access Possible Under the IEEE Standards
    • Figure 5.4 ZyXEL MAX-200M1 IEEE 802.16e CPE
    • Figure 5.5 Samsung' s WiMAX USB Dongle SPH-H1200 - (WiMAX Card / Receiver)
  • 5.2.2 Regulatory
    • i. World Radiocommunications Conference Agreement
    • ii. European Commission
    • iii. Spectrum Auctions
  • 5.2.3 Untapped Potential in Developing Countries
    • Table 5.1: India & the US - Basic Statistics 2007
  • 5.2.4 ARPU
    • Figure 5.6: 802.16e WiMAX ARPU ($) in Fixed Applications - Regional Forecast, 2008-2013
    • Table 5.2: 802.16e WiMAX ARPU ($) in Fixed Applications - Regional Forecast, 2008-2013
• 5.3 Global Broadband and DSL Subscriber Forecast
  • Figure 5.7: Broadband Subscriber Base (m), Regional Forecast - 2006-2013
  • Table 5.3: Broadband Subscriber Base (m), Regional Forecast - 2006-2013
  • Figure 5.8: DSL Subscriber Base (m), Regional Forecast - 2006 - 2013
  • Table 5.4: DSL Subscriber Base (m), Regional Forecast - 2006 - 2013
• 5.4 Global Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Forecast
  • Figure 5.9: DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) Global Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 5.10: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) by Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Table 5.5: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (m) by Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 5.11: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX 2013 Subscriber Base (%) Regional Forecast
  • Figure 5.12: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (%) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 5.13: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market Size (m Subscribers) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Table 5.6: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market Size (m Subscribers) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 5.14: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX 2013 Market Size (% Subscribers) Regional Forecast
• 5.5 Fixed 802.16e vs. Mobile 802.16e WiMAX Market Trends
  • Figure 5.15: 802.16e Global Fixed 802.16e & Mobile 802.16e WiMAX Market Comparison (%), 2008 & 2013
• 5.6 Global Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues Forecast
  • Figure 5.16: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($bn) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Table 5.7: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($bn) Regional Forecast, 2008 - 2013
• 5.7 Global Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Device Forecast
  • Table 5.8: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Device Wholesale Pricing ($) Forecast, 2008-2013
  • Figure 5.17: Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Device Market Forecast ($m) Global Forecast, 2008 - 2013

6. NORTH AMERICA FIXED 802.16E WIMAX FORECAST

• 6.1 North America Broadband Overview
  • Figure 6.1: N. America Broadband Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
• 6.2 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Forecasts
  • 6.2.1 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Market Size & Growth
    • Figure 6.2: N. America DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
    • Figure 6.3: N. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
    • Table 6.1: N. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
    • Figure 6.4: N. America Fixed, 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast 2008 - 2013

7. SOUTH AMERICA FIXED 802.16E WIMAX FORECAST

• 7.1 South America Broadband Overview
  • Figure 7.1: S. America Broadband Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
• 7.2 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Forecasts
  • Figure 7.2: S. America DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Table 7.1: S. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 7.3: S. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 7.4: S. America Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

8. WESTERN EUROPE FIXED 802.16E WIMAX FORECAST

• 8.1 Western Europe Broadband Overview
  • Figure 8.1: W. Europe Broadband Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
• 8.2 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Forecasts
  • Figure 8.2: W. Europe DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 8.3: W. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Table 8.1: W. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 8.4: W. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

9. EASTERN EUROPE FIXED 802.16E WIMAX FORECAST

• 9.1 Eastern Europe Broadband Overview
  • Figure 9.1: E. Europe Broadband Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
• 9.2 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Forecasts
  • Figure 9.2: E. Europe DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Table 9.1: E. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 9.3: E. Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 9.4: Eastern Europe Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

10. FAR EAST & CHINA FIXED 802.16E WIMAX FORECAST

• 10.1 Far East & China Broadband Overview
  • Figure 10.1: Far East & China Broadband Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 10.2: Far East & China FTTH Penetration
• 10.2 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Forecasts
  • Figure 10.3: Far East & China DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 10.4: Far East & China Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Table 10.1: Far East & China Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 10.5: Far East & China Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

11. INDIAN SUB CONTINENT FIXED 802.16E WIMAX FORECAST

• 11.1 Indian Sub Continent Broadband Overview
  • Figure 11.1: Indian Sub Continent Broadband Subscriber Base (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
• 11.2 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Forecasts
  • Figure 11.2: Indian Sub Continent DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 11.3: Indian Sub Continent Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Table 11.1: Indian Sub Continent Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 11.4: Indian Sub Continent Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

12. REST OF ASIA-PACIFIC FIXED 802.16E WIMAX FORECAST

• 12.1 Rest of Asia-Pacific Broadband Overview
  • Figure 12.1: Rest of Asia-Pacific Broadband Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
• 12.2 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Forecasts
  • Figure 12.2: Rest of Asia-Pacific DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 12.3: Rest of Asia-Pacific Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Table 12.1: Rest of Asia-Pacific Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
  • Figure 12.4: Rest of Asia-Pacific Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013

13. AFRICA & MIDDLE EAST FIXED 802.16E WIMAX FORECAST

• 13.1 Africa & Middle East Broadband Overview
  • Figure 13.1: Africa & Middle East Broadband Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
• 13.2 Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Forecasts
  • 13.2.1 Fixed WiMAX Subscriber Market Size & Growth
    • Figure 13.2: Africa & Middle East DSL Replacement by Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Subscriber Base (000' s) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
    • Figure 13.3: Africa & Middle East Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
    • Table 13.1: Africa & Middle East Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Market (000' s Subscribers) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
    • Figure 13.4: Africa & Middle East Fixed 802.16e WiMAX Service Revenues ($m) Forecast, 2008 - 2013