2007年通訊市場展望

Abstract

The 2007 Telecom Industry Review summarizes current conditions across the global telecommunications industry, providing analysis of over a dozen infrastructure and service segments. From fundamental background issues to detailed five-year forecasts accompanied by practical strategic advice, this study provides a sweeping examination of the telecom marketplace.

The Review provides up-to-date information in such key areas as revenue and performance characteristics of wireline and wireless carriers by global region, adoption of VoIP and other IP-based services, operations support systems, gateways and next-generation architectures, cable telephony, residential and business communications trends, and new opportunities such as grid computing.

Whether you're an industry veteran or new to telecom, the 2007 Telecom Industry Review will serve as a frequently referenced yearbook, supplying hard data and sound analysis on pressing service and equipment issues. Concise, clear, and current, the review is a detailed strategic tool that amasses a year's worth of telecom research- over a dozen segments- into one comprehensive resource.

Report Excerpt

1.1 Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions

The worldwide communications infrastructure has already started moving gradually and inexorably in the direction of ubiquitous broadband access and transport, an adoption that will completely revamp the meaning of what constitutes a telecommunications service.

An important worldwide trend is the much higher growth rate of wireless service in comparison to wireline service. Wireless revenues grow from 46.3 percent of all telecommunications services revenues in 2005 to 55.6 percent in 2010- a virtual flip within the five-year period. Wireless service revenues are growing at 9.9 percent CAGR over the forecast period, while wireline service, which includes both broadband and narrowband services, grows much more modestly at 2.0 percent.

Worldwide, broadband service providers of all stripes continue to try to create viable business models in order to deliver high-speed broadband- leveraging Internet protocol (IP) packet delivery and management to create and deliver new services. Overseas carriers are rolling out broadband on a mass scale, targeting consumers and small businesses, and bundling new premium services like Voice over IP (VoIP), virtual private network (VPN), video, games, and entertainment. This worldwide IP-based applications services market is beginning to take off. The architecture of and market for next-generation enhanced services is also beginning to take shape.

Yet even as the industry focuses much of its energy on creating the infrastructure to support a new generation of telcom services, actual revenue contributions made by IP services represent just 0.9 percent of all global wireline and wireless telecommunications service revenues forecasted for 2006 and just 5.7 percent of those forecasted for 2011. Thus, while the attention of the industry focuses on enabling a next generation of services, the revenue impacts remain modest throughout the next several years.

Traditional carriers see IP application platforms as a means to beginning their slow migration to fully-convergent IP-based networks and services. Some view the highly personalized services enabled by IP as the ultimate "sticky" applications that will stem the tide of customer churn. Other carriers desire new, affordable service applications that will bring additional revenue streams. Every carrier is looking for new ways to enhance their service suites, which are rapidly becoming commoditized.

Interestingly, wireless carriers seem to be making headway when it comes to the adoption of new architectural and service paradigms. Fundamentally, wireless operators have had more experience with and greater control over the content in their networks and have solid billing platforms, both of which assure content providers of reliable and stable revenues from content provided to wireless subscribers. Content providers are, therefore, more comfortable with the wireless domain. Wireline carriers also expect operational and infrastructure savings from deploying new IP-based services...

Table of Contents

Chapter I

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 1.1 Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions
• 1.2 Report Structure

Chapter II

BACKGROUND: TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY MARKETS

• 2.1 Telecommunications Market Conditions
  • 2.1.1 Broadband Market Trends
    • 2.1.1.1 North American Wireline Broadband Revenue Trends
    • 2.1.1.2 European Broadband Revenue Trends
    • 2.1.1.3 Asia Pacific Broadband Revenue Trends
    • 2.1.1.4 LAC Broadband Revenue Trends
• 2.2 Wireless Industry Markets
  • 2.2.1 Differences Between Wireless Mobile Technologies
  • 2.2.2 Wireless Market Trends
    • 2.2.2.1 North America Wireless Trends
    • 2.2.2.2 Europe, Mid-East, Wireless Trends
    • 2.2.2.3 Asia Pacific Wireless Trends
    • 2.2.2.4 Latin America/Caribbean Wireless Trends
• 2.3 Cable Television
  • 2.3.1 History of Cable TV
  • 2.3.2 Cable Telephony
• 2.4 The Future of Telecommunications: Three Scenarios
  • 2.4.1 Scenario I: Networks Evolve, None Are Supplanted
  • 2.4.2 Scenario II: Global Ubiquitous Internet-Based Solution
  • 2.4.3 Scenario III: Un-Tethered and Wireless

Chapter III

THE NEXT GENERATION COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK: IMPROVEMENTS TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE

• 3.1 Overview of Network Topology
  • 3.1.1 End-Users
  • 3.1.2 Access Networks
  • 3.1.3 Metro Networks
  • 3.1.4 Core Networks
• 3.2 Transmission Improvements
• 3.3 Overview of Switching Technologies
  • 3.3.1 Circuit Switching vs. Packet Switching
• 3.4 The Public Switched Telephone Network
  • 3.4.1 Evolution of the PSTN
  • 3.4.2 Changes to the PSTN by 2007
  • 3.4.3 Central Offices
• 3.5 Data Networks and VoIP
  • 3.5.1 Broadband Switches
  • 3.5.2 Data Core Networks
    • 3.5.2.1 Changes in Data Core Networks by 2007
  • 3.5.3 Data Metro Networks
  • 3.5.4 Data Access Networks
  • 3.5.5 Signaling and Support Structures for Data Networks
  • 3.5.6 Voice Over the Internet Protocol
  • 3.5.7 VoIP as Transport
  • 3.5.8 VoIP Operational Advantage
  • 3.5.9 VoIP as Value-Added Stage
• 3.6 The Next Generation Network
  • 3.6.1 Gateways
    • 3.6.1.1 Gateway Market Opportunity Forecast
  • 3.6.2 Softswitches
    • 3.6.2.1 Economic Motivations
  • 3.6.3 IP Multimedia Subsystems
• 3.7 Optical Networking
  • 3.7.1 Overview
  • 3.7.2 Add Drop Multiplexers
    • 3.7.2.1 ADM Market Opportunity
  • 3.7.3 Optical Cross Connects
  • 3.7.4 Present and Future DWDM Systems
    • 3.7.4.1 Long-Haul Systems
    • 3.7.4.2 Metropolitan Systems
    • 3.7.4.3 Wavelength Service Market Trends
  • 3.7.5 Market Analysis of SONET/SDH & DWDM Systems
• 3.8 Optical Components
  • 3.8.1 Optical Transmitters
    • 3.8.1.1 Tunable Lasers Diodes
    • 3.8.1.2 Modulators
  • 3.8.2 Optical Receivers
  • 3.8.3 Market Analysis of Optical Subsystem and Components
• 3.9 Optical Fiber
  • 3.9.1 Development of Fiber
    • 3.9.1.1 Dispersion-Shifted Fiber
    • 3.9.1.2 Non-Zero Dispersion-Shifted Fiber
  • 3.9.2 Future Fiber Design
  • 3.9.3 Market Analysis of Fiber Deployment

Chapter IV

THE ACCESS NETWORK: NARROWBAND AND BROADBAND

• 4.1 Narrowband: The Decline of US Landlines
• 4.2 Broadband Access Networks
  • 4.2.1 Broadband Access Forecasts
• 4.3 Access Network Technology Options
  • 4.3.1 DSL
  • 4.3.2 Cable
  • 4.3.3 Fiber
  • 4.3.4 Fixed Mobile Convergence
  • 4.3.5 WiFi

Chapter V

SUPPORTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE: NETWORK AND CUSTOMER SUPPORT

• 5.1 Operations Support Systems Overview
• 5.2 Operations Support Applications
  • 5.2.1 Business Operations Support
    • 5.2.1.1 Customer Care
    • 5.2.1.2 Service Orders
    • 5.2.1.3 Billing Mediation
    • 5.2.1.4 Rating
    • 5.2.1.5 Billing
  • 5.2.2 Network Operations Support
    • 5.2.2.1 Engineering and Planning
    • 5.2.2.2 Provisioning
    • 5.2.2.3 Trouble/Repair
  • 5.2.3 Network Management
  • 5.2.4 OSS Market Structure: Demand Side View
    • 5.2.4.1 Professional Services and OSSes

Chapter VI

PRESENT AND FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES MARKETS

• 6.1 US Telecommunications Subscriber Forecasting Model
  • 6.1.1 Wireless Subscribers
  • 6.1.2 ILEC Subscribers
  • 6.1.3 CLEC Subscribers
  • 6.1.4 IXC Subscribers
  • 6.1.5 Cable Subscribers
    • 6.1.5.1 VoIP Subscribers
    • 6.1.5.2 Cable TV Subscribers
    • 6.1.5.3 Cable Modem Subscribers
  • 6.1.6 Other VoIP Subscribers
• 6.2 Worldwide VoIP Adoption
  • 6.2.1 North America International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.1.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.1.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.2 Caribbean International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.2.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.2.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.3 Central America International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.3.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.3.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.4 Latin America International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.4.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.4.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.5 Europe International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.5.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.5.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.6 Asia International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.6.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.6.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.7 Africa International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.7.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.7.2 Originating Traffic
  • 6.2.8 Oceania International VoIP Traffic
    • 6.2.8.1 Terminating Traffic
    • 6.2.8.2 Originating Traffic
• 6.3 IP-Based Application Services
  • 6.3.1 Residential Video Telephony
  • 6.3.2 Fixed Mobile Convergence
  • 6.3.3 File Sharing Services
  • 6.3.4 Streaming Services
  • 6.3.5 Location Based Services
  • 6.3.6 Presence Based Services
• 6.4 WiFi & WiMax

Chapter VII

ENTERPRISE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS

• 7.1 Private Lines
  • 7.1.1 Evolution in the Private Line Services Market
  • 7.1.2 Circuit Types
    • 7.1.2.1 56Kbit/s Circuits
    • 7.1.2.2 64Kbit/s Clear-Channel Circuits (DS0)
    • 7.1.2.3 Fractional T1 Circuits
    • 7.1.2.4 T1 Circuits (DS1)
    • 7.1.2.5 Fractional T3 Circuits (Fractional DS3)
    • 7.1.2.6 T3 Circuits (DS3)
    • 7.1.2.7 Optical Carrier Circuits
  • 7.1.3 SONET, IP and Private Lines
  • 7.1.4 Private Line Circuit Layout
  • 7.1.5 Redundancy & Restoration
  • 7.1.6 Private Line Alternatives
  • 7.1.7 Private Line Market Analysis
• 7.2 Managed Services & the Enterprise
• 7.3 Managed Services Industry Revenue
• 7.4 Vertical Industry Spending on Telecommunications Services
  • 7.4.1 Telecommunications Expenditures by Vertical Industry
  • 7.4.2 Healthcare as a Fast Growing Vertical Industry
    • 7.4 2.1 Healthcare Industry Structure Ready for Change
    • 7.4.2.2 Market Estimate of Healthcare Telecom Spending
• 7.5 Grid Computing
  • 7.5.1 What is Grid Computing
  • 7.5.2 Grid Computing Implications for Telecom
  • 7.5.3 Grid Computing Market Analysis

Appendix

GLOSSARY

Table of Figures

Chapter I

• I-1 Worldwide IP Services Market, 2006-2011

Chapter II

• II-1 Broadband Services Revenue Distribution, 2006-2011
• II-2 EMEA Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2005-2010
• II-3 Asia Pacific Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2005-2010
• II-4 LAC Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2005-2010
• II-5 Distribution of Wireless Networks by Technology Type
• II-6 Impact of New Wireless Data Service Usage on ARPU
• II-7 Regional Subscriber Growth 2002-2005
• II-8 Total Wireline and Wireless Broadband and Narrowband Revenues by Scenario

Chapter III

• III-1 Public Communication Network Architecture
• III-2 SONET Ring Configuration
• III-3 Hierarchy of Broadband Switch Functions
• III-4 US Broadband Switches Compared with Increase in Throughput
• III-5 US Broadband Switch Revenue, 2001-2006
• III-6 Typical National Data Core Network
• III-7 Core Network Configurations by Type of Traffic Pattern
• III-8 Worldwide Gateway Revenue Forecast, 2005-2010
• III-9 Softswitch Architecture Diagram
• III-10 Circuit vs. Packet Switching of Internet Traffic
• III-11 Switched Opt/Electrical Net vs. All-Opt IP Meshed Net
• III-12 Total ADM Revenue, 2003 and 2008
• III-13 Origins of the Digital Cross Connect
• III-14 Evolution of the Digital Cross Connect
• III-15 Long-Haul DWDM System
• III-16 Two Ways to Expand DWDM Capacity
• III-17 Total SONET/SDH Terminal Market
• III-18 Total DWDM Sales, 2000-2008
• III-19 ITU-T Wavelength Spacing Grid for DWDM Systems
• III-20 DWDM Bands Around 1550 Nanometers
• III-21 Worldwide Optical Components Market
• III-22 Four-Wave Mixing
• III-23 Fiber Deployment Percentage of Total by Region

Chapter IV

• IV-1 Broadband Penetration by Technology in Top 20 Economies
• IV-2 HFC Architecture Providing Video and Voice Services
• IV-3 Total RBOC Cash Expense Per Line in Service
• IV-4 Cell Phone Penetration as a Percentage of All Phone Subscribers
• IV-5 Wireline vs. Mobile Phone Growth 1995-2004
• IV-6 SIP-Based Network Application Server Approach

Chapter V

• V-1 Operations Support Systems Dataflow
• V-2 Business Operations Systems Dataflow
• V-3 Worldwide Total OSS Sales Revenue Forecast
• V-4 Worldwide Professional Services Revenue by Region

Chapter VII

• VII-1 Capacities of 64Kbit/s, T1, and T3 Circuits
• VII-2 Typical Layout for a Full Circuit
• VII-3 ISDN Switched Backup
• VII-4 SONET Rings
• VII-5 Fiber-to-Fiber Redundancy
• VII-6 Cable-to-Cable Physical Redundancy
• VII-7 Total Private Line Revenue, 2005-2010
• VII-8 Managed Wide Area Network Endpoints, 2003-2010
• VII-9 Internet Traffic and IT Staffing
• VII-10 US Managed Services Revenues, 2006-2011
• VII-11 Drivers of Telecom Expenditures in Vertical Markets
• VII-12 Total US Telecom Wireline Market, 2005 and 2010
• VII-13 Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireline Services 259
• VII-14 Total US Telecom Wireless Services, 2005 and 2010
• VII-15 Top-Tier Expenditures for Telecom Wireless Services
• VII-16 Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues
• VII-17 Grid Computing as Part of the IT Evolution

Table of Tables

Chapter I

• I-1 Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category, 2005-2010

Chapter II

• II-1 Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2005-2010
• II-2 2005 and 2010 Distribution of Global Carrier Revenue by Region
• II-3 Service Provider Revenue, 2006-2011
• II-4 Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Category
• II-5 Broadband Consumer Applications and Required Bandwidth
• II-6 North American Broadband Wireline Revenue by Market Segment 17
• II-7 Wireless Subscribers by Global Region 2002-2011 (Thousands)
• II-8 Typical Frequencies Used for Mobile Services (US vs. International)
• II-9 Mobile Wireless Standards (First, Second, and Third Generation)
• II-10 Wireless Network Deployment Status, 2005 and 2006 (Number of Networks)
• II-11 Examples of 2.5G and 3G Services
• II-12 Revenue for 2G, 2.5G, and 3G Market Segments by Region,
• II-13 Four MSO Voice Delivery Options
• II-14 Total Wireline and Wireless Broadband and Narrowband Revenues by Scenario

Chapter III

• III-1 Definitions of Digital Private Line Services
• III-2 SONET Data Rates
• III-3 Distinctions between POTS and Data Networks
• III-4 Network Locations of Broadband Switches
• III-5 Wireline SS7 Queries 2003-2008 (Thousands)
• III-6 Impacts of VoIP on International Telecommunications Services Revenue
• III-7 Gateway Functions
• III-8 Softswitch Advantages/Disadvantages
• III-9 Economic Benefits of Softswitch Technology
• III-10 Strategies to Increase Network Service Margins
• III-11 OADM Applications
• III-12 Typical Features of First Gene Metro vs. Long-Haul DWDM Networks
• III-13 Wavelength Market Segments
• III-14 Typical Service Providers Offers for Native Wavelength Services
• III-15 Typical Service Providers Offers for Wavelength Services Over SONET
• III-16 Wavelength Services Revenue Totals
• III-17 ITU-T Frequency and Wavelength Grid for DWDM Systems
• III-18 Fiber Deployment by Region, 2000-2008

Chapter IV

• IV-1 US Access Line Trends: Residential and Business, 2000-2005
• IV-2 US Access Line Estimates, Residential and Business, 2006-2011
• IV-3 US Residential Primary Access Line Declines by Wireless and Broadband VoIP
• IV-4 Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions
• IV-5 Broadband Penetration as a Percentage of Households,
• IV-6 Worldwide Broadband Lines, 2006-2011
• IV-7 The Versions and Features of xDSL
• IV-8 Number of Consumer Broadband Lines with Wireless Home Networking

Chapter V

• V-1 OSS Definitions Summary
• V-2 Characteristics of Broadband Network Management
• V-3 Distinct Characteristics of Packet Broadband Network Management
• V-4 Worldwide OSS Sales by Region, 2005-2010 ($Millions)
• V-5 Worldwide OSS Sales Distribution by Region
• V-6 Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue, Wireline vs. Wireless
• V-7 Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue by Service Type

Chapter VI

• VI-1 Growth in Subscribers All Segments
• VI-2 Growth in Wireless Subscriber
• VI-3 Growth in ILEC Subscribers by Line Type
• VI-4 Growth in CLEC Subscribers
• VI-5 Growth in IXC Subscribers
• VI-6 Growth in Cable Subscribers by Service Type
• VI-7 Growth in Other VoIP Subscribers
• VI-8 North American Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-9 North American Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-10 Caribbean Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-11 Caribbean Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-12 Central America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-13 Central America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-14 Latin America Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-15 Latin America Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-16 Europe Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-17 Europe Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-18 Asia Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-19 Asia Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-20 Africa Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-21 Africa Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-22 Oceania Inbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-23 Oceania Outbound MOUs with VoIP
• VI-24 Variations on the 802.11 Standard

Chapter VII

• VII-1 Digital Services Hierarchy
• VII-2 SONET/Optical Carrier Hierarchy
• VII-3 Managed Services Segments
• VII-4 Provider Strengths and Weaknesses
• VII-5 Healthcare Market Segments
• VII-6 Healthcare Segment Dimensions and Trends
• VII-7 Grid Market Segmentation by Resource
• VII-8 Grid Market Segmentation by Organization
• VII-9 Worldwide Grid Spending, 2006-2011