印度牛奶以及乳製品市場：生產・消費・出口

• India is the largest producer of milk producing more than 100 million tons of milk per annum. Yet, her per capita milk consumption is around 250 g per day.
• India has a population of more than 1 billion with diverse food habits, cultures, traditions and religions. Regional variations within the country can be mind boggling. On one hand, the country has plains with long tradition of milk production and consumption. On the other hand, there are forest and hilly regions with no tradition of dairying. Most of coastal belts also do not have much of dairy tradition.
• Cow is holy for Hindus who make up more than 80 per cent of the population of India. Buffalo enjoys no such holy status. Cow slaughter is banned in many states of India. There are no restrictions on buffalo culling.

All this makes India a very complex dairy country.

Till about year 2000, India was not on the radar screen of most international dairy companies, since India was neither a major importer nor an exporter of dairy products. Through the 70' s, 80' s and 90' s India used to take some milk powder and butter oil as aid. Exports from India were insignificantly small. From 2000 onwards, Indian dairy products, particularly milk powder, casein, whey products and ghee started making their presence felt in global markets.

The decade of 2000-10 will be recorded in dairy history as the decade of exports. But the next decade will be different. Signs of change are already visible. India is finding it difficult to sustain exports. The day is not far when India will become a net importer of dairy products, particularly of dairy fats.

India' s milk production will grow at about 3 per cent per annum in spite of difficulties due to stagnant livestock herd size and shortage of fodder. Due to increasing population, per capita availability of milk will increase by only about 1.5 per cent per annum. For an economy growing at about 8 per cent per annum, this increase in availability will be grossly inadequate.

Production growing at only 3 per cent and consumption growing at more than double the rate is obviously going to lead to a mismatch between demand and supply. This will create opportunities for international dairy companies.

On one hand, India is expected to enter the international market with demand for commodities like skimmed milk powder and butter oil. On the other hand, growing prosperity and fast growth of organized modern retail and western style fast food outlets will lead to increased consumption of products like cheese and table butter. This will throw up opportunities for branded dairy products to enter this huge market of more than a billion people.

Helping international companies understand the dairy scenario of India from a macro-level perspective is the prime objective of this study. Facts and statistics, instead of opinions and impressions, are the key building blocks of this report.

During the study, we have tried, as far as possible, to rely on official data from some department / ministry / agency / directorate of government of India. This poses a problem since government agencies of India are slow in releasing data. For example, Director General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics, Kolkata (responsible for compiling data on India' s imports and exports) had till the end of April 2008 released monthly export data in respect of only August 2007. Department of Animal Husbandry' s latest data is given in their Handbook released in December 2006, which gives data only for financial year ended on March 2006.

Inadequacy of official data is a perennial problem with most developing countries. Fortunately, in case of India the problem is not as severe. India has one of the oldest and most reliable census systems in the world. India conducts a fairly reliable livestock survey regularly. Data on economic fundamentals is extremely detailed and easily available. Trade data collection system of India is better than of most developing countries and is much more reliable than of most non-democratic countries.

Separating the useful and relevant from irrelevant and useless is always a challenge. It is more when so when one has an ocean of data (parts of which may be a bit old). This is a challenge that we are able to undertake with our long experience in India and Indian dairy / livestock industry in particular. We have our ear on the ground in India. We understand the dynamics of fast-changing India. We use the historical data provided by government agencies and rely on our experience and insightful expertise to see trends that others notice much later.

We hope that the study helps you get a macro-level understanding of the dairy scenario in India. This may however not answer all the queries that you may have. We look forward to conducting in-depth micro-level studies related to Indian dairy industry for you based on your requirements.

1. Introduction

2. Overview of Indian Economy

• 2.1 Rate of growth of Indian economy (GDP) from 2000-01 to 2007-08
• 2.2 Inflation Pressures during 2007 and 2008
• 2.3 Growth continues from 2003-04 onwards
• 2.4 Forecasts of Growth Rates by professional forecasters
• 2.5 Business Confidence Survey by National Council of Applied Economic Research, Reserve Bank of India, and Dun & Bradstreet
• 2.6 Monsoon forecast for 2008 and report for 2007
• 2.7 Population 2004 to 2012 and rural urban divide
• 2.8 Map Of India showing states
• 2.9 Key Economic Indicators for 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07 and 2007-08
• 2.10 Balance of Payments & International Trade during 2006-07 and 2007-08
• 2.11 Foreign Exchange movements from May 2003 to May 2008

3. Livestock Scenario

• 3.1 Livestock overview - issues affecting cattle, buffalo, goat and sheep
• 3.2 Livestock population by species (cattle, buffalo, sheep, goat, horses and ponies, camels, pigs, mules, donkeys, yak, mithun) from 1951 to 2003
• 3.3 State-wise Dairy Animal population & Average Yield (Crossbred cows, nondescript cows, buffaloes and goats) during 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05 and 2005-06
• 3.4 Livestock health including disease scenario of dairy animals
• 3.5 Livestock ownership by marginal, small, semi-medium, medium and large landholders
• 3.6 Fodder scenario - present and future; with projections of demand-supply scenario till year 2025
• 3.7 Herd size - past trends and future projections of herd size of cattle, buffalo and goat with herd size figures from 1982 to 2012 and growth rates from 1977-82 to 2008-13

4. Milk Production

• 4.1 National milk production and per capita availability from 1950-51 to 2011-12 and comparison with other countries
• 4.2 Milk production in states (state-wise data for milk production by crossbred cows, non-descript cows, buffaloes and goats)
• 4.3 States with crossbred cows (states that receive more than 25 per cent of milk from crossbred cows)
• 4.4 Buffalo states (states that receive more than 40 per cent of milk from buffaloes)
• 4.5 Major Dairy states (13 states that produce more than 90 per cent of India' s milk)
• 4.6 Milk Quality - standards for fat, solids-not-fat in respect of buffalo milk, cow milk and goat / sheep milk as well as of packed milk for retail sale; other quality problems faced in India

5. Structure of Indian dairy industry

• 5.1 Distribution of surplus milk from villages - role of traditional milkmen vs. organized dairies
• 5.2 Cooperative milk movement - history, concept and structure of dairy cooperatives organized on Kaira/Anand pattern
• 5.3 Sector-wise distribution of dairies - milk processing capacity in cooperative, private and other (government) sector as on 31st March 2006
• 5.4 Dairies in cooperative sector - state-wise data about number of dairy cooperative societies, farmer members, milk procurement, liquid milk sale and processing capacity
• 5.5 Regulatory environment - applicable laws, rules and standards
• 5.6 Leading brands of dairy products - top 20 dairy brands in India
• 5.7 Dairy companies catering to domestic market only - Top 16 dairy companies of India with insignificant presence in exports segment, along with addresses, e-mail id' s, telephone / fax numbers
• 5.8 Dairy companies actively engaged in exports - Top 9 dairy companies of India with significant presence in exports segment, along with addresses, e-mail id' s, telephone / fax numbers and names of contact persons
• 5.9 Liquid milk market - packing, pack size, logistics and brands
• 5.10 UHT milk market

6. Consumption of milk & milk products

• 6.1 Liquid milk per capita consumption - state-wise per capita rural and urban consumption of liquid milk and changes in consumption from 1993-94 to 2004-05
• 6.2 Milk & milk products per capita consumption trends - changes in per capita rural and urban consumption of milk & milk products from 1987 to 2006; Estimates by industry chambers of growth in consumption of dairy products
• 6.3 Milk & milk products per capita expenditure - state-wise during 2005-06
• 6.4 Milk & milk products consumption - drivers of growth; economic, demographic, historical, cultural and social factors defining the big picture

7. Dairy products - production & consumption

• 7.1 Milk converted to products like curd, butter, ghee, cheese, khoa, cream, ice cream etc.
• 7.2 Dairy fats - butter and ghee - production and consumption from 2002 to 2012
• 7.3 Curd / yogurt - market preferences and attempts by organized sector to introduce packed variants
• 7.4 Paneer (cottage cheese) / chhanna / chhanna based sweets - product descriptions, composition, methods of preparation, market size and forecasts of growth
• 7.5 Processed cheese - major brands, estimate of market size and growth forecast
• 7.6 Khoa / mawa - product descriptions, methods of preparation, composition, market size and forecasts of growth
• 7.7 Condensed milk / dairy whiteners - major brands, estimate of market size and growth forecast
• 7.8 Milk powder

8. Prices

• 8.1 Milk prices - wholesale price index; Comparison of WPI' s for milk, butter and ghee with WPI for food articles from January 2003 to January 2008
• 8.2 Purchase price of milk from farmers - method, procedure and indicative prices April 2008 for cow milk and mix milk
• 8.3 SMP prices from 2001-02 to 2007-08 and in May 2008 with recent influencing factors
• 8.4 Retail prices of milk & milk products (butter, ghee, cheese, curd, standard milk, toned milk and full-fat milk)
• 9. Dairy exports overview
• 9.1 Dairy exports historical data - Consolidated dairy exports data from 1995-96 to December 2007; Item-wise exports data in quantity terms, INR terms, USD and EUR terms for years 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07 and April-August 2007; Item-wise average export realization (INR/kg) for years 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07 and April-August 2007
• 9.2 Dairy exports trends

10. Dairy exports country-wise statistics in quantity terms and INR terms for years 2004-05, 2005-06, 2006-07 and April-August 2007

• 10.1 Milk & cream concentrated HS code 0402
• 10.2 Butter Milk, Curdled Milk etc. HS code 0403
• 10.3 Whey products HS code 0404
• 10.4 Butter, other fats & oils derived from milk HS code 0405
• 10.5 Cheese HS code 0406
• 10.6 Casein, caseinates and derivates HS code 3501
• 10.7 Lactose and lactose syrup HS code 1702

11. Future of Indian dairy exports

12. WTO influence

13. Global companies in India

• 13.1 Nestle
• 13.2 Fonterra Cooperative Group of New Zealand
• 13.3 Groupe Danone
• 13.4 New Zealand Naturals
• 13.5 Wal-Mart
• 13.6 Unilever
• 13.7 Schreiber Foods

14. New products

• 14.1 Functional products
• 14.2 Local traditional tastes

15. Summary of projections

• A. Definitions & Abbreviations
• B. Sources of Information
• C. Profiles
• D. Legal Conditions

• T 1.1 - Projected growth rate of milk production and dairy products consumption
• T 2.1 - Growth Rates of Real GDP
• T 2.2 - Forecasts of Growth Rates (in per cent) by various agencies
• T 2.3 - Business Expectations surveyed by various agencies
• T 2.4 - India' s population - official projections
• T 2.5 - Population - rural and urban - of states
• T 2.6 - Key Indicators of India' s economy - absolute values
• T 2.7 - Key Indicators of India' s economy - Percentage change over previous year
• T 2.8 - RBI Reference Rate for Indian Rupee against major currencies
• T 3.1 - Livestock population in India by species
• T 3.2 - Annual Growth Rate of Livestock population in India by species
• T 3.3 - Crossbred cows - Numbers and average yield in various states
• T 3.4 - Non descript cows - Numbers and average yield in various states
• T 3.5 - Buffaloes - Numbers and average yield in various states
• T 3.6 - Goats - Numbers and average yield in various states
• T 3.7 - Incidence of Diseases in Dairy Animals in India during 2006 (January-December)
• T 3.8 - Livestock holding pattern among landowners
• T 3.9 - Supply and demand scenario of forage and roughage till 2025
• T 3.10 - Herd size of dairy animals as per livestock census
• T 3.11 - Growth rates of herds of dairy animals - past and future
• T 3.12 - Projected herd size of dairy animals
• T 4.1 - Milk production from 1950-51 to 2011-12
• T 4.2 - Share of milk production by cows, buffaloes and goats - state-wise during 2005-06
• T 4.3 - States where milk from crossbred cows is significant percentage of total milk
• T 4.4 - States where milk from buffalo is significant percentage of total milk
• T 4.5 - Major Dairy States and their production
• T 4.6 - Standards of different types of milk in India
• T 5.1 - Dairy processing units in cooperative, private and other sectors
• T 5.2 - Capacity and performance of Dairy processing units in cooperative sector
• T 5.3 - Share of cooperative sector in total milk in major dairy states
• T 5.4 - Leading brands of milk and dairy products
• T 5.5 - Contact Details of leading dairy companies excluding companies engaged in exports
• T 5.6 - Contact Details of leading dairy companies actively engaged in exports
• T 6.1 - Monthly per capita quantity of consumption of milk (liquid) by State/UT
• T 6.2 - Changes in consumption of milk (liquid) between 1993-94 and 2004-05
• T 6.3 - Changes in average value of consumption of milk & milk products per person per 30 days over National Sample Survey Rounds: all-India
• T 6.4 - Comparison of Monthly per capita quantity and value of consumption of milk & milk products during 1999-2000 and 2004-05
• T 6.5 - Average expenditure (Rs.) per person per 30 days on milk & milk products
• T 6.6 - Per capita income & consumption
• T 7.1 - Utilization of milk in different dairy products
• T 7.2 - Production and consumption of butter and ghee
• T 7.3 - Consumption of ghee
• T 7.4 - Consumption of table butter
• T 7.5 - Ghee & T Butter - consumption and milk used for production
• T 7.6 - Typical composition of paneer
• T 7.7 - Composition of khoa
• T 7.8 - Types of khoa
• T 8.1 - WPI for milk, butter, ghee and food articles during 2003-08
• T 8.2 - Annual rate of change in WPI
• T 8.3 - Skimmed Milk Powder Prices
• T 8.4 - Retail price of milk products and packed liquid milk
• T 9.1 - Indian dairy exports since 1995-96
• T 9.2 - Dairy exports month-wise during 2006 and 2007
• T 9.3 - Indian dairy exports 2004-05 to 2007-08
• T 9.4 - Indian dairy exports 2004-05 to 2007-08 in USD
• T 9.5 - Indian dairy exports 2004-05 to 2007-08 in EUR
• T 9.6 - Average realization from exports
• T 10.1 - Exports of Skimmed Milk Powder fat < 1.5 per cent HS Code 04021010
• T 10.2 - Exports of Milk food for babies HS Code 04021020
• T 10.3 - Exports of Other Milk Powder HS Code 04021090
• T 10.4 - Exports of Milk Powder Fat >1.5% HS Code 04022100
• T 10.5 - Exports of Milk for Babies Fat >1.5% HS Code 04022920
• T 10.6 - Exports of Other Milk Powder Fat >1.5% HS Code 04022990
• T 10.7 - Exports of Whole Milk Powder containing sweetening matter HS Code 04029910
• T 10.8 - Exports of condensed milk HS Code 04029920
• T 10.9 - Exports of other milk or cream containing sweetening matter HS Code 04029990
• T 10.10 - Exports of yogurt HS Code 04031000
• T 10.11 - Exports of butter milk HS Code 04039010
• T 10.12 - Exports of other curdled milk products HS Code 04039090
• T 10.13 - Exports of whey concentrated HS Code 04041010
• T 10.14 - Exports of whey dry, blocks & powdered HS Code 04041020
• T 10.15 - Exports of other whey products HS Code 04041090
• T 10.16 - Exports of products other than whey consisting of natural milk constituents HS Code 04049000
• T 10.17 - Exports of butter HS Code 04051000
• T 10.18 - Exports of dairy spreads HS Code 04052000
• T 10.19 - Exports of butter oil HS Code 04059010
• T 10.20 - Exports of melted butter (ghee) HS Code 04059020
• T 10.21 - Exports of fresh cheese HS Code 04061000
• T 10.22 - Exports of processed cheese HS Code 04063000
• T 10.23 - Exports of casein, casein derivatives HS Code 350110
• T 10.24 - Exports of caseinates, caseinate derivatives HS Code 350190
• T 10.25 - Exports of lactose & syrup containing 99 per cent or more of lacts HS Code 170211
• T 10.26 - Exports of lactose & syrup containing < 99 per cent of lacts HS Code 170219

• C 2.1 - Map of India showing states
• C 4.1 - Increasing milk production
• C 4.2 - Milk production in major dairy states
• C 5.1 - Distribution and consumption pattern of milk produced in villages
• C 7.1 - Utilization of milk in different dairy products
• C 7.2 - Evolution of Butter and Ghee Production 2002-2012
• C 7.3 - Ghee and Table Butter production and consumption
• C 8.1 - Movement of WPI for milk, butter, ghee and food articles
• C 8.2 - Price List of mix milk
• C 8.3 - Price List of cow milk
• C 9.1 - Exports of dairy products from 1995-96 to 2006-07
• C 9.2 - Average export realizations of key dairy products