Abstract
US diesel engine demand to slow after 2006 pre-buy
With growth reflecting an artificially high 2006 base year, US demand for diesel engines and related aftermarket parts will increase 1.1 percent annually through 2011 to $16.7 billion. Demand for parts and non-motor vehicle engines will help offset lower demand for motor vehicle engines. Demand will not match peak 2006 levels in the key heavy-duty truck diesel engine market, which resulted from fleets buying trucks ahead of 2007 emissions regulation changes. These changes will add both significant cost and uncertainty, since first-year engines using new technologies may not be as robust in terms of reliability and durability.
Although faring better than heavyduty truck engines, off-highway diesel engines will likely experience a slowing of demand through 2011, as new Tier-4 emissions regulations phase in between 2008 and 2015. Particulate matter and oxides of nitrogen emissions are mandated to be further reduced by about 90 percent, which will likely be achieved through the use of control technologies similar to those required by the heavy-truck standards, such as advanced exhaust gas after-treatment. The added expense and risk will impact year-on-year demand for these engines, thereby distorting the market going forward.
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- General
- Economic Environment
- Cyclical Trends
- Long-Term Trends
- Motor Vehicle Sector Outlook
- Industrial Sector Outlook
- Industrial Production Trends
- Capital Spending/Fixed Investment Trends
- Cost/Pricing Dynamics
- Regulatory Trends
- Environmental
- Energy Efficiency & Other
- International Environment
- World Diesel Engine Supply & Demand
- Trends in US Foreign Trade
III. TECHNOLOGY
- General
- Basic Diesel Engine Operation
- Emissions Control Technology
- Fuel System Enhancements
- Turbocharging & After-Treatment Device Enhancements
- Diesel Fuel Enhancements
- Performance Enhancement Technology
- Alternative/Competitive Technologies
- Natural Gas Engines
- Dual-Fuel & Hybrid Engines
- Turbines & Microturbines
- Fuel Cells
IV. DIESEL ENGINE PRODUCTS & MATERIALS
- General
- Motor Vehicle Engines
- Demand
- Supply
- Non-Motor Vehicle Engines
- Demand
- Supply
- Aftermarket Parts
- Diesel Engine Materials
V. DIESEL ENGINE MARKETS
- General
- Motor Vehicle Markets
- Heavy-Duty Trucks
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engine & Parts Demand
- Medium-Duty Trucks
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Light-Duty Trucks
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Buses
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Other Motor Vehicle Markets
- Specialty Vehicles
- Recreational Vehicles
- Passenger Cars
- All-Terrain Vehicles
- Heavy-Duty Trucks
- Non-Motor Vehicle Markets
- Construction Equipment
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Agricultural Equipment
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Marine Equipment
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Electric Power Generation
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Other Industrial Equipment
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Mining Machinery
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Lawn & Garden Equipment
- Industry Overview
- Diesel Engines & Parts Demand
- Other Non-Motor Vehicle Markets
- Construction Equipment
VI. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- General
- Industry Composition & Market Share
- Research & Product Development
- Manufacturing
- Marketing & Distribution
- Competitive Intensity
- Financial Issues & Requirements
- Mergers, Acquisitions & Industry Restructuring
- Cooperative Agreements
- COMPANY PROFILES
- Blue Diamond Truck Company LLC, see Ford Motor Company and Navistar International Corporation
- Bosch (Robert) GmbH
- Briggs & Stratton Corporation
- Brunswick Corporation
- Caterpillar Incorporated
- Consolidated Diesel Company, see Cummins Incorporated
- Cummins Incorporated
- Cummins MerCruiser Diesel Marine LLC, see Cummins Incorporated and Brunswick Corporation
- Daihatsu Motor Company Limited, see Toyota Motor Corporation
- DaimlerChrysler AG
- Deere & Company
- Delphi Corporation
- DENSO Corporation
- Detroit Diesel Corporation, see DaimlerChrysler AG
- DEUTZ AG
- Doosan Infracore Company Limited
- EnPro Industries Incorporated
- Ford Motor Company
- Freightliner LLC, see DaimlerChrysler AG
- Fuji Heavy Industries Limited
- General Electric Company
- General Motors Corporation
- Honda Motor Company Limited
- Hino Motors Limited, see Toyota Motor Corporation
- Isuzu Motors Limited
- Kohler Company
- Komatsu Limited
- Kubota Corporation
- Mack Trucks Incorporated, see Volvo AB
- MAN AG
- Mercury Marine Group, see Brunswick Corporation
- Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation, see DaimlerChrysler AG
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Limited
- MTU Friedrichshafen GmbH, see Tognum GmbH
- Navistar International Corporation
- Nissan Diesel Motor Company Limited
- Peugeot SA
- Robin America Incorporated, see Fuji Heavy Industries Limited
- Siemens AG
- Siemens Diesel Systems Technology LLC, see Navistar International Corporation and Siemens AG
- Stanadyne Corporation
- Tognum GmbH
- Toyota Motor Corporation
- VM Motori SpA, see DaimlerChrysler AG
- Volkswagen AG
- Volvo AB
- Westerbeke Corporation
- Yamaha Motor Company Limited
- Yanmar Company Limited
- Other Companies Mentioned in Study
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Summary Table
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1 Macroeconomic Indicators
- 2 Diesel Engine Market, 1996-2006
- 3 Motor Vehicle Indicators
- 4 Manufacturers' Shipments by Industry
- 5 Private Fixed Investment by Type
- 6 World Diesel Engine Product Market
- 7 US Diesel Engine Product Foreign Trade
SECTION III -- TECHNOLOGY
- 1 Selected Alternative Energy Sources Demand
SECTION IV -- DIESEL ENGINE PRODUCTS & TECHNOLOGIES
- 1 Diesel Engine Product Supply & Demand
- 2 Motor Vehicle Diesel Engine Supply & Demand
- 3 Non-Motor Vehicle Diesel Engine Supply & Demand
- 4 Diesel Engine Aftermarket Parts Supply & Demand
- 5 Diesel Engine Materials Consumption
SECTION V -- DIESEL ENGINE MARKETS
- 1 Diesel Engine Product Demand by Major Application & Type
- 2 Motor Vehicle Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 3 Heavy-Duty Truck Supply & Demand
- 4 Heavy-Duty Truck Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 5 Medium-Duty Truck Supply & Demand
- 6 Medium-Duty Truck Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 7 Light-Duty Truck Supply & Demand
- 8 Light-Duty Truck Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 9 Bus Supply & Demand
- 10 Bus Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 11 Other Motor Vehicle Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 12 Non-Motor Vehicle Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 13 Construction Expenditures
- 14 Construction Equipment Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 15 Agricultural Sector Indicators
- 16 Agricultural Equipment Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 17 Marine Equipment Shipments
- 18 Marine Equipment Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 19 Electricity Generation
- 20 Electric Power Generation Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 21 Selected Industrial Equipment Shipments
- 22 Other Industrial Equipment Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 23 Mining Industry Indicators
- 24 Mining Machinery Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 25 Gas-Powered Lawn & Garden Equipment Shipments
- 26 Lawn & Garden Equipment Diesel Engine Product Demand
- 27 Other Non-Motor Vehicle Diesel Engine Product Demand
SECTION VI -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1 Revenue Data: Selected Diesel Engine Product Companies, 2006
- 2 Research & Development Spending Patterns: Selected Diesel Engine Product Companies, 2004-2006
- 3 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
- 4 Selected Cooperative Agreements
LIST OF CHARTS
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1 Diesel Engine Market Volatility, 1996-2006
- 2 Diesel Engine Product Pricing Trends
SECTION IV -- DIESEL ENGINE PRODUCTS & TECHNOLOGIES
- 1 Diesel Engine Product Demand by Type, 2006
SECTION V -- DIESEL ENGINE MARKETS
- 1 Diesel Engine Product Demand by Major Application, 2006
- 2 Motor Vehicle Diesel Engine Product Demand by Application, 2006
- 3 Non-Motor Vehicle Diesel Engine Product Demand by Application, 2006
SECTION VI -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1 US Diesel Engine Product Market Share by Company, 2006
- 2 Forces at Work in the US Diesel Engine Market
