Diesels, hybrids to gain market share
While overall sales of light vehicles in the US are forecast to grow less than one percent annually through 2009, there will be a significant shift in the product mix of powerplants used as diesel engines and hybrid-electric powerplants begin to take significant share away from spark ignition internal combustion engines. The fuel price spike that occurred in 2005 ignited new interest in fuelefficient powertrain technologies, which has boosted demand for hybridelectric vehicles and, to an extent, for diesel engines. Fuel cells remain a more distance promise due to technology and infrastructure challenges.
Spark ignition ICEs to remain dominant
Nevertheless, despite rapid advances in alternative powerplant types, the conventional spark ignition internal combustion engine (ICE) will remain the dominant powerplant technology in the US throughout the forecast period. The spark ignition ICEs continued ability to cost-effectively meet tighter emission standards yet provide high levels of power and driveability will ensure its position in the marketplace. Even so, continued consumer demands in terms of fuel economy and vehicle emissions are causing automakers to seek out efficient new technologies.
Diesels ICE shows promise in the US
The diesel ICE has recently emerged as a legitimate substitute for the spark ignition engine in the US light vehicle market both from a market and a regulatory perspective. The tremendous success of the technology in Europe, where it is on the verge of capturing 50 percent of the total automobile market, amply demonstrates the advances made in light diesel direct injection technology in the past decade. Growth will be robust, due in part to the introduction of low-sulfur fuels (scheduled for late 2006), which will make meeting new emission standards more feasible for light vehicles.
Hybrid-electric ICEs to accelerate
The market for hybridelectric ICEs will expand significantly from a relatively small base in 2001. Hybrid-electric ICEs feature adapted internal combustion engines in tandem with electric motors to increase fuel efficiency and reduce emissions while providing performance similar to a conventional spark ignition engine. Two types of hybrids are currently being developed: full hybrids, with large high voltage battery packs such as those already introduced by Toyota and Honda; and mild hybrids, which provide less electric power to operate the vehicle but can be more easily integrated into existing ICE drivetrains and are more cost effective. Cost disparities between HEVs and conventional light vehicles are expected to decline significantly as production volumes increase.
Fuel cells show promise in the long-term
Fuel cell-powered vehicles will emerge slowly in the next decade. Significant but apparently solvable vehicle-related engineering challenges as well as daunting fueling infrastructure requirements will limit commercialization. The industry is currently experiencing a backlash to the just around the corner" coverage that has surrounded the automotive fuel cell in recent years, but the longer term, the technology continues to show promise as an ICE replacement.
Study coverage
Details on these and other key findings are available Hybrids & Competing Automotive Powerplants, the new Freedonia industry study, which provides historical US demand data (1994, 1999, 2004) plus forecasts through 2009 and 2014 by powerplant type and by market. The study also considers market environment trends and indicators, discusses global supply and demand, reviews technology, evaluates company market share and profiles 35 leading competitors in the fledgling US industry.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- General
- Macroeconomic Environment
- Light Vehicle Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Automotive Industry Trends
- Legal & Regulatory Trends
- Air Quality
- Fuel Efficiency
- Global Warming
- Fuel Economy
- Pricing Trends
- Comparative Cost Analysis
- Average Kilowatts Produced
- Average Powerplant Cost
III. GLOBAL SUPPLY & DEMAND
- General
- Global Demand
- North America
- Western Europe
- Asia/Pacific
- Other Regions
- Global Supply
- North America
- Western Europe
- Asia/Pacific
- Other Regions
IV. TECHNOLOGY
- General
- Transition to Fuel Cells
- Well-to-Wheels Efficiency & Pollution Comparisons
- Internal Combustion Engines
- Spark Ignition Internal Combustion Engines
- Diesel Internal Combustion Engines
- Hybrid-Electric ICE Powerplants
- Series Hybrid
- Parallel Hybrid
- Mild Hybrid
- Advantages of the Hybrid-Electric ICE Powertrain
- Hybrid-Electric ICE Commercialization Issues
- Heat Management
- Power Control Systems
- Field Service
- Battery Life
- Fuel Cells
- Basic Fuel Cell Properties
- How Fuel Cells Work
- Fuel Cell Types
- Fuel Cell Fueling Strategies
- High Pressure Hydrogen Storage
- Hydrogen Absorption
- Cryogenic Storage
- Onboard Fuel Processor/Reformer Systems
- PEM Fuel Cell Commercialization -- Product Issues
- Start Up Issues
- Shutdown Issues
- Electro-Catalyst Poisoning Issues
- Cold Temperatures Issues
- Lifecycle Issues
- PEM Fuel Cell Commercialization -- Process Issues
- Energy Storage Technologies
- Competing Technologies
V. POWERPLANT COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW
- General
- Six Hurdles to Powerplant Dominance
- Technology Readiness
- S-Curve Headroom
- Internal Combustion Engines
- Hybrid-Electric ICEs
- Fuel Cells
- Electric Vehicles
- Regulatory Compliance
- Emissions Compliance
- Fuel Efficiency Compliance
- Safety Compliance
- Infrastructure Readiness
- Fueling Infrastructure
- Service Infrastructure
- Consumer Price/Benefits
- Industry Focus
- Technology Penetration Profiles
- Market Pull
- Regulatory Push
- Rapid Penetration
- Niche
- Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Market Assessment
- Automatic Transmissions
- Power Steering
- Air Conditioning
- Antilock Brake Systems
- Penetration Summary
- Penetration Analysis for HEVs
- Markets
- Types of Markets
- Light Vehicle Demand by Powerplant Type
VI. INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
- General
- Spark Ignition Engines
- Infinitely Variable Valve Timing
- Cylinder Deactivation Systems
- Direct Fuel Injection
- Feedback Plasma Ignition Systems
- Hydrogen-Fueled Spark Ignition Engine
- Spark Ignition ICE Producers
- Diesel (Compression Ignition) Engines
- Direct Injection
- Other Fuel System Advances
- Particulate Trap
- Diesel ICE Producers
VII. HYBRID-ELECTRIC INTERNAL COMBUSTION
ENGINES
- General
- Full Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engines
- Mild Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engines
- Hybrid-Electric ICE Producers
VIII. FUEL CELLS
- General
- Fuel Cell Configurations
- Fuel Cell Vehicles
- Onboard Hydrogen Fueling Technologies
- Fuel Cell Producers
IX. POWERPLANT MARKET BY COMPANY
- General
- Original Equipment Manufacturers
- OEM Strategic Requirements
- OEM Strategic Options
- OEM Part & Component Suppliers
- Supplier Strategic Requirements
- Supplier Strategic Options
X. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- General
- Industry Composition & Market Share
- Mergers, Acquisitions & Industry Restructuring
- Research & Product Development
- Manufacturing
- Marketing
- Distribution
- Financial Issues & Requirements
- Strategic Partnerships
COMPANY PROFILES
- Aisin Seiki Company Limited
- Alfa SA de CV
- Ballard Power Systems Incorporated
- Bayerische Motoren Werke AG
- BERU AG, see BorgWarner Incorporated
- BorgWarner Incorporated
- Bosch (Robert) GmbH
- Cobasys LLC, see Energy Conversion Devices
- Cosworth Technology Limited, see MAHLE GmbH
- Cummins Incorporated
- DaimlerChrysler AG
- Delphi Corporation
- DENSO Corporation
- Detroit Diesel Corporation, see DaimlerChrysler
- DuPont (EI) de Nemours
- Eaton Corporation
- Energy Conversion Devices Incorporated
- Exide Technologies
- Federal-Mogul Corporation
- Ford Motor Company
- Freescale Semiconductor Incorporated
- General Motors Corporation
- Global Electric Motorcars LLC, see DaimlerChrysler
- Global Engine Manufacturing Alliance, see DaimlerChrysler
- Hitachi Limited
- Holset Engineering Company, see Cummins Incorporated
- Honda Motor Company Limited
- Honeywell International Incorporated
- International Truck and Engine Corporation, see
- Navistar International Corporation
- Johnson Controls Incorporated
- MAHLE GmbH
- Matsushita Electric Industrial Company Limited
- Motorola Incorporated
- Navistar International Corporation
- Nemak SA, see Alfa SA de CV and Ford Motor Company
- Nissan Motor Company Limited, see Renault SA
- Ovonic Battery Company, see Energy Conversion Devices
- Ovonic Hydrogen Systems, see Energy Conversion Devices
- Panasonic EV Energy Company, see Matsushita Electric Industrial
- Company and Toyota Motor Corporation
- Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide
- Incorporated
- Renault SA
- Saft Groupe SA
- SANYO Electric Company Limited
- Siemens AG
- Starcraft Corporation, see Quantum Fuel Systems
- Technologies Worldwide
- TorqTransfer Systems, see BorgWarner Incorporated
- Toyota Motor Corporation
- United Technologies Corporation
- UTC Fuel Cells, see United Technologies Corporation
- Valeo SA
- Visteon Corporation
- Volkswagen AG
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Summary Table
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1 Macroeconomic Environment
- 2 Light Vehicle Indicators
- 3 Light Vehicle Powerplant Assumed Kilowatt Output by Type
- 4 Light Vehicle Powertrain Estimated Cost by Type
SECTION III -- GLOBAL SUPPLY & DEMAND
- 1 World Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type
- 2 North America Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type
- 3 Western Europe Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant
- 4 Asia/Pacific Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type
- 5 Other Regions Demand for Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type
- 6 World Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type
- 7 North America Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type
- 8 Western Europe Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type
- 9 Asia/Pacific Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant Type
- 10 Other Regions Production of Light Vehicles by Powerplant
SECTION V -- POWERPLANT COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW
- 1 Light Vehicle Demand by Powerplant Type
SECTION VI -- INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
- 1 Internal Combustion Engine Light Vehicle Demand
- 2 Spark Ignition Engine Light Vehicle Demand
- 3 Diesel Engine Light Vehicle Demand
SECTION VII -- HYBRID-ELECTRIC INTERNAL
COMBUSTION ENGINES
- 1 Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engine Light Vehicle Demand
- 2 Full Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engine Light Vehicle Demand
- 3 Mild Hybrid-Electric Internal Combustion Engine Light Vehicle Demand
SECTION VIII --FUEL CELLS
- 1 Fuel Cell Light Vehicle Demand
SECTION X --INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
- 2 Selected Cooperative Agreements
LIST OF CHARTS
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1 US Light Vehicle Production by Company, 2004
- 2 Options for Improving Light Vehicle Fuel Efficiency
- 3 Honda Civic Hybrid Breakeven Versus Civic ICE LX Model, US Market Example, 2004 Data
SECTION IV -- TECHNOLOGY
- 1 Conceptual Technology Migration Profile: ICE to Fuel Cell
SECTION V -- POWERPLANT COMPETITIVE OVERVIEW
- 1 Alternative Powerplant Forces at Work
- 2 Light Vehicle Powerplant Technology Assessment
- 3 Price/Benefits Analysis -- 2003-2005 Model Year
- 4 HEV Price/Benefits Analysis -- 2003-2005 Model Year
- 5 Categorizing Technology Penetration Curves -- US Market Example
- 6 Framework for Assessing Automotive Technology Penetration
- 7 Automatic Transmission Penetration at Retail Price Analysis US Passenger Car Example
- 8 Power Steering Penetration at Retail Price Analysis -- US Passenger Car Example
- 9 Air Conditioning Penetration at Retail Price Analysis -- US Passenger Car Example
- 10 Antilock Brake System Penetration at Retail Price Analysis US Passenger Car Example
- 11 Summary of Technology Penetration Profiles -- US Example
- 12 Estimated Full Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Option Pricing Trend -- Worldwide Example
SECTION VI -- INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES
- 1 US Light Vehicle Spark Ignition Engine Market Share, 2004
- 2 US Light Vehicle Diesel Engine Market Share, 2004
SECTION VII -- HYBRID-ELECTRIC INTERNAL
COMBUSTION ENGINES
- 1 Historical & Potential Light HEV Introductions Through 2009
SECTION IX -- POWERPLANT MARKET BY COMPANY
- 1 OEM Strategic Powerplant Options -- US Perspective
- 2 Supplier Strategic Powerplant Supply Options
SECTION X -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- 1 US Light Vehicle Powerplant Market Share, 2004
- 2 Trigger Technology Definition -- Antilock Brake Wheel-Speed Sensor Example
- 3 Advanced Powertrain Technologies with Multiple Possible Applications
