Abstract
Overview
Introduction
Comprehensive forecasts for the UK retail market over the next five years, including a full explanation of macroeconomic, consumer and sector specific factors influencing market performance.
Scope
- Value data, growth rates and forecasts broken down by subsector and detail for nine subcategories
- Coverage of key market issues and growth drivers, including inflationary trends, multichannel development and non-specialist participation.
- Furniture & floorcoverings market expenditure, inflation and volume growth (1997-2007), plus full five-year forecasts for each of the categories.
- Market shares for 2002-2007 and eforecasts for 2008.
Highlights
Weak consumer sentiment towards big ticket purchases will negatively affect market performance, particularly of furniture and floorcoverings specialists. Consumers' discretionary spending will be limited over the next two years as disposable incomes are eroded by rising living costs, increased taxation, higher borrowing costs, and slow wage growth.
We expect space growth to slow as a result of the challenging trading conditions. Many leading furniture specialists have downgraded previously ambitious expansion plans for the next five years amid the downturn in consumer spending and pessimistic sales growth predictions.
With non-specialists enhancing their furniture offer, specialist retailers will need to compete on more than just price to survive. As consumers have more choice, competing on price alone will not be sufficient.
Reasons to Purchase
- Plan confidently for the future with reliable independent forecasts for market growth and action points to guide strategies.
- Optimize buying, identify emerging trends and allocate resources so that you can capitalise on them.
- Incentivise managers to outperform by setting your growth forecasts against an independent source.
Table of Contents
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Key Findings
- Main Conclusions
- CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY
- Expenditure Summary
- Specialists Summaries
- CHAPTER 3 KEY MARKET ISSUES
- Overview
- External Drivers
- Housing Market
- Housing Equity Withdrawal
- Cost of Borrowing
- Disposable Income
- Retailer-led Drivers
- Expansion of Furniture Specialists
- Impact of Non-specialists on the Market
- Expansion of Specialists vs Non-specialists
- Specialist Survival
- Creating Growth in a Difficult Market
- Keep Ahead of Trends
- Compete on More Than Price
- Replicating Non-specialist Advantages
- Manage Cost Structure to Ensure it is Competitive
- Differentiate Proposition
- Increase Multichannel Offer
- Customer & Service Initiatives
- Increasing Multichannel Development
- Impact of e-Retail
- CHAPTER 4 FURNITURE & FLOORCOVERINGS SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK
- Retail Sales
- Share of Total Sales
- CHAPTER 5 FURNITURE SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK
- Retail Sales
- Sources of Sales Growth
- Share of Total Sales
- Store Numbers
- Space Growth
- Sales Densities
- CHAPTER 6 FLOORCOVERINGS SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK
- Retail Sales
- Sources of Sales Growth
- Share of Total Sales
- Store Numbers
- Space Growth
- Sales Densities
- CHAPTER 7 CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION
- Sales & Spending
- Furniture - Sales & Spending
- Furniture - Forecast Changes for Major Sectors
- Furniture - Market Shares
- Floorcoverings - Sales & Spending
- Floorcoverings - Forecast Changes for Major Sectors
- Floorcoverings - Market Shares
- CHAPTER 8 FURNITURE & FLOORCOVERINGS CATEGORY FORECASTS
- Expenditure Summary
- Principal Components
- Principal Components
- Expenditure Analysis
- Expenditure Growth
- Furniture
- Floorcoverings
- CHAPTER 9 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Key Messages
- Gross Domestic Product - GDP
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Earnings Growth
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Real Household Disposable Income
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Employment
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Inflation
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Exchange Rates
- How do they affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Interest Rates
- How do they affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Savings Ratio
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Consumer Debt
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Equities
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- House Price Inflation
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Housing Equity Withdrawal
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- Housing Transactions
- How does it affect retail?
- What's happened?
- What will happen?
- CHAPTER 10 UK RETAILING FORECASTS
- Key Indicators
- Retail Expenditure 1997-2012
- Sales by Location 2007-2012
- Sources of Growth 1997-2012
- Store Numbers by Location 1997-2012
- Space by Location 1997-2012
- Sales Density by Location 1997-2012
- Average Store Size 1997-2012
- Average Store Sales 1997-2012
- Online Retail Spending
- CHAPTER 11 GLOSSARY
- Terminology
- Market Definition
- Location Definitions
- Town Centre
- Out-of-town
- Neighbourhood
- Non-store Retail
- Forecasting Methodology
- Abbreviations
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012e
- Table 2: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists summaries 2002, 2007 and 2012e
- Table 3: Online furniture & floorcoverings sales forecast 2007-2012
- Table 4: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists sales 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Table 5: Sources of growth for UK furniture &floorcoverings specialists 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Table 6: Furniture specialists sales 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Table 7: Sources of growth for UK furniture specialists 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Table 8: Total selling space for furniture specialists 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Table 9: Floorcoverings specialists sales 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Table 10: Sources of growth for UK floorcoverings specialists 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Table 11: Total selling space for floorcoverings specialists 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Table 12: Leading furniture retailers market shares 2002-2007 and 2008e
- Table 13: Leading floorcoverings retailers market shares 2002-2007 and 2008e
- Table 14: Furniture spend - principal components 2006,2007 & 2012
- Table 15: Floorcoverings spend - principal components 2006, 2007 & 2012
- Table 16: Furniture expenditure analysis 2007-2012
- Table 17: Floorcoverings expenditure analysis 2007-2012
- Table 18: Total furniture & floorcoverings expenditure 1997-2012e
- Table 19: Total furniture expenditure 1997-2012e
- Table 20: Floorcoverings expenditure 1997-2012e
- Table 21: Economic drivers for retail 2008
- Table 22: Measures of inflation 2008
- Table 23: UK retailing forecasts summary 2007-2012
- Table 24: Forecast chronology 2008-2012
- Table 25: Total consumer retail expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 26: Sales by location 1997-2012
- Table 27: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1997-2012
- Table 28: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1997-2012
- Table 29: Store numbers 1997-2012
- Table 30: Space by location 1997-2012
- Table 31: Sales densities by location at current prices 1997-2012
- Table 32: Average store size by location 1997-2012
- Table 33: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1997-2012
- Table 34: Furniture & floorcoverings market definition 2008
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 2: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists sources of growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 3: Comparing current economic climate with recession in 1991 and the effect on furniture & floorcoverings market 200
- Figure 4: External drivers of furniture &floorcoverings market 2008
- Figure 5: Housing transactions 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012e
- Figure 6: Housing Equity Withdrawal (England &Wales) 1996-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 7: Variance between BoE Official Interest Rate and the LIBOR Rate ( An indication of true cost of borrowing) 1997-2008
- Figure 8: Disposable income 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 9: Estimated space expansion of key existing furniture specialists 2007 and 2008e, 2012e
- Figure 10: Impact of non-specialists on the furniture market 2008
- Figure 11: Main factors affecting specialist survival 2008
- Figure 12: Key issues and implications for furniture& floorcoverings retailers 2007-2012
- Figure 13: Customer service matrix 2008
- Figure 14: Multichannel offers 2008
- Figure 15: Reasons consumers are drawn to e-retail when purchasing furniture & floorcoverings 2008
- Figure 16: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists sales as a % of total UK retail consumer spending 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 17: Furniture specialists sales as a % of total UK furniture & floorcoverings specialists sales 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 18: Total furniture specialists store numbers(000) 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 19: Space growth for furniture specialists 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 20: Furniture specialists sales densities at current prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 21: Furniture specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 22: Floorcoverings specialists sales as a % of total furniture & floorcoverings specialists sales 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 23: Total floorcoverings specialists store numbers (000) 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 24: Space growth for floorcoverings specialists 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 25: Floorcoverings specialists sales densities at current prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 26: Floorcoverings specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 27: Channels of distribution - furniture &floorcoverings 2006, 2007 & 2012
- Figure 28: Channels of distribution - furniture 2006,2007 & 2012e
- Figure 29: Changes in shares of major channels in the furniture market 2012e on 2007
- Figure 30: Channels of distribution - floorcoverings 2006, 2007 & 2012
- Figure 31: Changes in shares of major channels in the floorcoverings market 2012e on 2007
- Figure 32: Furniture expenditure 1997, 2002, 2007 &2012e and five-year growth rates
- Figure 33: Floorcoverings expenditure 1997, 2002, 2007& 2012e and five-year growth rates
- Figure 34: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure as a % of total retail spending 1997-2012e
- Figure 35: Furniture & floorcoverings growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012e
- Figure 36: Furniture expenditure as a % of furniture& floorcoverings spending 1997-2012e
- Figure 37: Furniture expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012e
- Figure 38: Floorcoverings expenditure as a % of furniture & floorcoverings spending 1997-2012e
- Figure 39: Floorcoverings expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012e
- Figure 40: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant(2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 41: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 42: Tax & Prices vs Average Earnings 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 43: Real household disposable income at constant(2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 44: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 45: UK unemployment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 46: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 47: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 48: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast�@by quarter for 2008
- Figure 49: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 50: Savings ratio 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 51: Growth in consumer debt 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 52: FTSE 100 Index 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 53: UK house price inflation 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 54: Housing Equity Withdrawal (England &Wales) 1996-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 55: Housing transactions (England & Wales)1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 56: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 57: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 58: Consumer, retail and non-retail spending trends % 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 59: Retail sales by location 2007 and 2012
- Figure 60: Share of turnover by location 1997, 2002,2007 & 2012
- Figure 61: % share of store numbers by location 1997,2002, 2007 & 2012
- Figure 62: % share of space by location 1997, 2002, 2007& 2012
- Figure 63: Online retail spending 1997-2012
- Figure 64: Verdict forecasting methodology 2008
