Abstract
Overview
Introduction
Verdict Research: The UK clothing & footwear sector has undergone a major repositioning since the millennium because of price deflation. Power has shifted from the traditional middle market retailers to volume, price-led retailers and more premium niche brands. This report highlights the trends and indicates both the challenges retailers face and the opportunities available.
Scope
- Five-year forecasts for expenditure, inflation and volume growth in clothing, womenswear, menswear, childrenswear, accessories & footwear.
- Five-year forecasts for clothing and footwear specialists' sales, store numbers, retail space and sales densities.
- Channel of distribution forecasts for specialists, grocers, department stores, home shopping and other non-specialists.
- Outlook for both clothing and footwear specialists and a comprehensive analysis of the key issues.
Report Highlights
Growth is set to slow down over the next five years to 17.0% and price deflation will come to an end in 2010.
The influx of new space will make it hard to achieve like-for-like growth, but will provide opportunities to relocate to larger stores in higher footfall locations. This will allow clothing specialists to widen their ranges further, which will put footwear specialists under greater pressure.
Value retailers will account for a quarter of all spending in the clothing & footwear market by 2012.
Reasons to Purchase
- Using reliable, authoritative and robust forecasts to make strategic plans with confidence.
- Incentivise managers to outperform using independent growth forecasts.
- Evaluate your current positioning on the basis of future growth opportunities and realign where necessary to maximise growth prospects.
Table of Contents
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Key Findings
- Main Conclusions
- CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY
- Expenditure Summary
- Specialists Summaries
- CHAPTER 3 KEY MARKET ISSUES
- Demographic Changes
- Convenience
- Polarisation Risk to Midmarket
- Impact of Seasonality - Greater Flexibility
- Store Expansion and Investment
- CHAPTER 4 CLOTHING SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK
- Key Issues
- Retail Sales & Sources of Sales Growth
- Retail Sales & Sources of Sales Growth
- Share of Total Sales & Store Numbers
- Space Growth
- Sales Densities
- CHAPTER 5 FOOTWEAR SPECIALISTS OUTLOOK
- Key Issues
- Retail Sales & Sources of Sales Growth
- Share of Total Sales & Store Numbers
- Space Growth
- Sales Densities
- CHAPTER 6 CHANNELS OF DISTRIBUTION
- Sales & Spending
- Forecast Changes for Major Channels
- Clothing Market Shares
- Footwear Market Shares
- CHAPTER 7 CATEGORY FORECAST
- Expenditure Summary
- Expenditure Analysis
- Expenditure Growth
- Clothing
- Womenswear
- Women' s Outerwear
- Women' s Underwear
- Menswear
- Men' s Outerwear
- Men' s Underwear
- Childrenswear
- Girlswear
- Boyswear
- Infantswear
- Accessories
- Footwear
- CHAPTER 8 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS
- Key Messages
- Gross Domestic Product - GDP
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Earnings Growth
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Real Household Disposable Income
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Employment
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Inflation
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Exchange Rates
- How do they affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Interest Rates
- How do they affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Savings Ratio
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Consumer Debt
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Equities
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- House Price Inflation
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Housing Equity Withdrawal
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- Housing Transactions
- How does it affect retail?
- What' s happened?
- What will happen?
- CHAPTER 9 UK RETAILING FORECASTS
- Key Indicators
- Retail Expenditure 1997-2012
- Sales by Location 2007-2012
- Sources of Growth 1997-2012
- Store Numbers by Location 1997-2012
- Space by Location 1997-2012
- Sales Density by Location 1997-2012
- Average Store Size 1997-2012
- Average Store Sales 1997-2012
- Online Retail Spending
- CHAPTER 10 GLOSSARY
- Terminology
- Market Definition
- Location Definitions
- Town Centre
- Out-of-town
- Neighbourhood
- Non-store Retail
- Forecasting Methodology
- Abbreviations
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Clothing & footwear expenditure summary 2002, 2007 & 2012
- Table 2: Clothing summary 2002, 2007 & 2012
- Table 3: Footwear summary 2002, 2007 & 2012
- Table 4: The impact of rising costs on demographic groups and its affect on the clothing and footwear market 2007-2012
- Table 5: Effect of seasonality - issues for clothing and footwear retailers 2008
- Table 6: Shopping Center Developments 2008-2012
- Table 7: Clothing specialists sales 1997-2012
- Table 8: Sources of growth for clothing specialists 1997-2012
- Table 9: Total selling space for clothing specialists 1997-2012
- Table 10: Footwear specialists sales 1997-2012
- Table 11: Sources of growth for footwear specialists 1997-2012
- Table 12: Total selling space for footwear specialists 1997-2012
- Table 13: Clothing and Footwear channels of distribution by retailer type 2006, 2007 and 2012e
- Table 14: Clothing market shares 2003-2008e
- Table 15: Footwear market shares 2003-2008e
- Table 16: Clothing and footwear expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012
- Table 17: Clothing & footwear expenditure analysis 2007-2012
- Table 18: Total clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 19: Total clothing expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 20: Womenswear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 21: Women' s outerwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 22: Women' s underwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 23: Menswear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 24: Men' s outerwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 25: Men' s underwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 26: Childrenswear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 27: Girlswear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 28: Boyswear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 29: Infantswear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 30: Accessories expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 31: Footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 32: Economic drivers for retail 2008
- Table 33: Measures of inflation 2008
- Table 34: UK retailing forecasts summary 2007-2012
- Table 35: Forecast chronology 2008-2012
- Table 36: Total consumer retail expenditure 1997-2012
- Table 37: Sales by location 1997-2012
- Table 38: Total UK physical store sales Table 39: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1997-2012
- Table 40: Store numbers 1997-2012
- Table 41: Space by location 1997-2012
- Table 42: Sales densities by location at current prices 1997-2012
- Table 43: Average store size by location 1997-2012
- Table 44: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1997-2012
- Table 45: Clothing & footwear market definition 2008
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Clothing & footwear expenditure growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 2: Clothing & footwear specialists growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 3: UK population by age group 2007 and forecast 2012
- Figure 4: Clothing & footwear market split by value,mid and premium
- Figure 5: Clothing specialists sales as a % of total retail consumer spending 1997-2012
- Figure 6: Clothing specialists store numbers (000)1997-2012
- Figure 7: Space growth for clothing specialists 1997-2012
- Figure 8: Clothing specialists sales densities at current prices 1997-2012
- Figure 9: Clothing specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 10: Footwear specialists sales as a % of total retail consumer spending 1997-2012
- Figure 11: Footwear specialists outlet numbers (000)1997-2012
- Figure 12: Space growth for footwear specialists 1997-2012
- Figure 13: Footwear specialists sales densities at current prices 1997-2012
- Figure 14: Footwear specialists sales densities at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 15: Clothing & footwear channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012
- Figure 16: Changes in shares of clothing & footwear market 2012 on 2007
- Figure 17: Clothing retailers change in market share 2007e on 2002
- Figure 18: Footwear retailers change in market share 2007e on 2002
- Figure 19: Clothing & footwear expenditure growth rates 1997-02, 2002-07 & 2007-12
- Figure 20: Clothing & footwear expenditure as a % of total spending 1997-2012
- Figure 21: Clothing & footwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 22: Clothing expenditure as a % of clothing &footwear spending 1997-2012
- Figure 23: Clothing expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 24: Womenswear expenditure as a % of clothing& footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 25: Womenswear expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 26: Women' s outerwear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 27: Women' s outerwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 28: Women' s underwear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 29: Women' s underwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 30: Menswear expenditure as a % of clothing &footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 31: Menswear expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 32: Men' s outerwear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 33: Men' s outerwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 34: Men' s underwear expenditure as a % of clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 35: Men' s underwear expenditure growth at constant (2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 36: Childrenswear expenditure as a % of clothing& footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 37: Childrenswear expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 38: Girlswear expenditure as a % of clothing& footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 39: Girlswear expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 40: Boyswear expenditure as a % of clothing &footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 41: Boyswear expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012e
- Figure 42: Infantswear expenditure as a % of clothing& footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 43: Infantswear expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 44: Accessories expenditure as a % of clothing& footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 45: Accessories expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 46: Footwear expenditure as a % of clothing &footwear expenditure 1997-2012
- Figure 47: Footwear expenditure growth at constant(2003) prices 1997-2012
- Figure 48: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant(2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 49: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 50: Tax & Prices vs Average Earnings 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 51: Real household disposable income at constant(2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 52: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 53: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 54: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 55: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 56: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast by quarter for 2008
- Figure 57: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 58: Savings ratio 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 59: Growth in consumer debt 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 60: FTSE 100 Index 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 61: UK house price inflation 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 62: Housing Equity Withdrawal (England &Wales) 1996-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 63: Housing transactions (England & Wales)1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 64: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 65: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 66: Consumer, retail and non-retail spending trends % 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012
- Figure 67: Retail sales by location 2007 and 2012
- Figure 68: Share of turnover by location 1997, 2002,2007 & 2012
- Figure 69: % share of store numbers by location 1997,2002, 2007 & 2012
- Figure 70: % share of space by location 1997, 2002, 2007& 2012
- Figure 71: Online retail spending 1997-2012
- Figure 72: Verdict forecasting methodology
