景氣衰退及財富管理市場

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

There are conflicting views among wealth managers and economists, as well as in the media, about the extent and duration of sub-prime mortgage defaults and the resulting credit squeeze. Datamonitor predicts that the impact on financial services will be significant, and will last through 2009. We have produced a series of reports to identify the strategies to help them insulate their revenues.

Scope

• Introduces Datamonitor' s detailed analysis of the global investment markets through 2011
• Presents results from Datamonitor' s 2007 European Wealth Management Market Leaders Survey of 140 companies
• identifies the products and services that will keep and/or attract clients in today' s market, including examples of the companies launching them
• assesses the smart strategies around marketing and communications, and identify the companies that have been proactive in contacting their client base

Report Highlights

Only 8% of wealth managers anticipate a market downturn, leaving the vast majority of wealthy clients wondering what the future has in store for them. Since 78% of wealth managers share their clients with at least one other wealth manager, there is significant potential to increase share of wallet simply by talking to clients.

One implication of a market downturn is a cut in rates; banks that work closely with their lending side can increase share of wallet this way. As lending criteria tightens, clients with good credit will be even more important to keep hold of.

When market conditions improve, it will not only be clients at risk of defection. Relationship managers will be on the move, most likely to the highest bidder, just as we have seen in 2006-07 (55% of European wealth managers were undertaking a ' significant staff recruitment program' in 2007, 41% planned such a program in 2006).

Reasons to Purchase

• Learn what the global investment markets have in store for wealth managers through 2009, and why.
• Identify the strategies that will keep your customers through concrete examples of peers that are implementing those strategies already
• Identify the best products and services to launch, or re-launch, in today' s market, and those that will best position you during the recovery in 2009

Table of Contents

• DATAMONITOR VIEW
  • CATALYST
  • SUMMARY
• ANALYSIS
  • The majority of wealth managers are not concerned about the risk of a global economic downturn
    • There are two broad schools of thought on the economic outlook for the next two years
    • Very few wealth managers acknowledge that a market downturn is on the way
  • Datamonitor believes that 2008-09 will be characterized by struggling economies worldwide
    • Rising interest rates, excessive borrowing and negative savings rates have combined in a perfect storm that will shake most of the world' s economies
    • The widespread securitization of loans will compound this problem
    • Consumers were not alone in overextending themselves; state debt servicing is up against budget, while tax revenues are sharply down, which may signal a muni bond crisis ahead
    • The US economy is not healthy enough to ' expand' itself out of these conditions
    • Foreign direct investment may also boost the economy; unfortunately foreign investors have run for the hills
    • A continued Treasury sell-off may further depress the dollar and, at worst, force interest rate hikes
    • Another major terrorist attack in the US will destabilize the economy further
    • Market capitalization, to varying degrees, will fall worldwide as US stock markets continue their jitters
  • Communication, risk assessment and effectively marketed products will be the keys to success in the downturn
    • A structured communication program should have already been implemented to address customer concerns about market volatility
    • Risk assessment is more important now than ever
    • The potential to deepen share of wallet is significant
    • Risk-averse clients will demand insulation and reassurance from the downturn
    • Clients will be tempted to hold investments in cash
    • Risk-loving clients should be encouraged to see the opportunities in volatility and in mis-matches
    • Product development will be a combination of new launches, and intelligently marketed existing products
    • The lending side of the business will also be important as re-mortgaging opportunities will abound when rates come down
  • Wealth managers who don' t anticipate client needs in the market recovery will lose them
    • A shift back into stock market-related investments should be marketing-led, not client-led
    • As the market improves, clients will again want more say in their investments
    • The best client managers will be poached from those wealth managers without a retention plan already in place when the market improves
  • APPENDIX
  • Definitions
    • Currency peg
    • Exchange-traded fund (ETF)
    • Guaranteed fund/ Capital-protected fund
    • Risk tolerance
    • Uncorrelated investment
  • Methodology
  • Further reading
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: US troubles have spread to the rest of the world
    • Figure 2: Less than 10% of wealth managers were most concerned about a potential recession as of September 2007
    • Figure 3: General obligation and revenue muni yields have increased in recent weeks, while Treasury yields have decreased, indicating a shift from munis to Treasuries
    • Figure 4: The US has run a trade deficit since 2001
    • Figure 5: US dollar exchange rates have fallen against the European currencies since the last market downturn
    • Figure 6: Net assets in guaranteed funds have grown strongly from mid-2006
    • Figure 7: Net sales into equity-linked UCITS have been negative in 2007