Abstract
Overview
Introduction
The current Huntington' s disease market is comprised of off-label prescriptions of psychotropic drugs. In the near term, two pipeline drugs are set to enter the market, demonstrating the viability of this disease as a primary marketing indication. In the longer term, with a strong genetic link and reliable diagnostic test, prophylactic treatment with a disease modifying drug could prove lucrative.
Scope
- Scenario based analysis and forecasts of the commercial potential of the Huntington' s disease market to 2016.
- Analysis of patient potential, marketing factors, commercial attractiveness and clinical attractiveness of key late-stage pipeline drugs.
- Strategic recommendations for maximizing the potential of drugs in this niche orphan disease market.
- Indication-specific sales forecasts of key pipeline drugs to 2016.
Report Highlights
NeuroSearch' s ACR16 is set to become the market leader by 2010. Targeting a broad spectrum of symptoms, and possessing a novel mode of action, neurologists are likely to view this drug favorably when compared to current treatments.
The launch of Xenazine (tetrabenazine) on the US market and further roll-out across the 5EU looks set to be a good strategic move by Prestwick Pharmaceuticals and Cambridge Laboratories. However, peak market penetration is limited by the drug' s use predominantly in severe patients and its poor side-effect profile.
Forecasts based on various potential patient population sizes and drug prices, identify several scenarios in which blockbuster drugs could be established in this market. A theoretical drug which could achieve this is defined.
Reasons to Purchase
- Access the lucrative potential of this underdeveloped neurodegenerative disease therapeutic market.
- Benchmark key late-stage compounds against current leading therapies and a theoretical "ideal" treatment.
- Understand the opportunities in this market based on the comments of interviewed key opinion leaders and industry executives.
Table of Contents
- ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
- About the CNS pharmaceutical analysis team
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Scope of the analysis
- Contributing experts
- Interviewed Key Opinion Leaders
- Datamonitor insight into the Huntington' s disease market
- Key metrics
- Datamonitor pipeline assessment summary
- Related reports
- Upcoming reports
- CHAPTER 2 MARKET OVERVIEW
- Definition of Huntington' s disease
- Current market overview
- Current therapies are limited to managing the symptoms associated with
HD and co-morbidities
- No treatment proven to alter the course of the disease
- Current treatment classes
- Current market value and trends
- Antipsychotics and monoamine-depleting agents
- Antidepressants and anxiolytics
- Anti-Parkinsonism drugs
- Current therapies are limited to managing the symptoms associated with
HD and co-morbidities
- Etiology of Huntington' s disease
- Risk of inheriting HD
- Prognosis for HD patients
- Epidemiology of Huntington' s disease
- Base scenario
- High prevalence rate patient population scenario
- Very low prevalence in Japan
- Increasing future trend in patient population
- Unmet need in Huntington' s disease
- Slowing the progression of the disease
- Reduced movement disorders
- Reduced depression, anxiety and psychosis
- CHAPTER 3 FUTURE MARKET POTENTIAL
- Future market scenarios for symptomatic patients
- Base prevalence future market value forecast
- High prevalence future market value
- Price of future HD drugs
- Current cost of CNS drugs comparable to a new disease modifying HD therapy
- Theoretical disease modifying drug
- Pre-symptomatic "at risk" population - the lucrative untapped market
- Scenarios matrix summary
- Future market scenarios for symptomatic patients
- CHAPTER 4 PIPELINE OVERVIEW AND DYNAMICS
- Pipeline drugs market potential
- Pipeline overview
- Definition of current comparator therapy
- Classification of pipeline products
- Recently discontinued or failed projects
- CHAPTER 5 LATE-STAGE DRUG ANALYSIS & FORECASTS
- Xenazine (tetrabenazine)
- Drug overview
- Forecasts to 2016
- Datamonitor drug assessment summary
- Marketing factors
- Market penetration
- Xenazine pricing assumptions
- Patient potential
- Satisfaction of unmet needs
- Clinical trial data
- Tetrabenazine as antichorea therapy in Huntington' s disease, Phase III study
- Phase III extension study
- Older studies investigating tetrabenazine in HD
- ACR16
- Drug overview
- Forecasts to 2016
- Datamonitor drug assessment summary
- Marketing factors
- Market penetration
- NeuroSearch should concentrate marketing efforts on the motor dysfunction benefits of ACR16
- ACR16 pricing assumptions
- Patient potential
- The patient potential of treating depression
- Positive effects on psychosis and agitation may also be seen in larger-scale trials
- Even if chorea is not adequately treated with ACR16, the patient potential would be high
- Significant alleviation of chorea may still be shown in larger-scale clinical trials
- Satisfaction of unmet needs
- Clinical trial data
- Planned Phase III trials
- Phase II study: ACR16C007
- Pre-clinical data - What is a dopamine stabilizer?
- HD-02 - Ultra-pure creatine
- Drug overview
- Forecasts to 2016
- Marketing factors
- Patient potential
- Satisfaction of unmet needs
- Clinical trial data
- Planned Phase III trial
- Phase I/II study
- Independent study on creatine
- Dimebon
- Drug overview
- Forecasts to 2016
- Clinical trial data
- Ongoing Phase II trial
- Completed Phase I study
- Further development and submission
- Xenazine (tetrabenazine)
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
- Journals
- Websites
- APPENDIX A
- Methodology
- Datamonitor forecast methodology for the HD market
- Epidemiology forecasts
- Product forecasts
- Definition of a standard unit
- Datamonitor forecast methodology for the HD market
- Contributing experts
- Interviewed NeuroSearch company executives
- Methodology
- APPENDIX B
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- Datamonitor Healthcare' s therapy area capabilities
- About the Disease analysis team
- Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: HD base scenario prevalence and patient population in the 6MM, 2007
- Table 2: HD high prevalence scenario patient population in the 6MM, 2007
- Table 3: HD prevalence and patient population in Japan, 2007
- Table 4: Price of comparable CNS drugs, 2007
- Table 5: Matrix of HD market value dependent on patient population and price in the 6MM, 2007
- Table 6: R&D clinical-stage pipeline in Huntington' s disease, 2007
- Table 7: Xenazine key assumptions and events, 2007
- Table 8: Key clinical and commercial attractiveness factors for Xenazine
- Table 9: ACR16 key assumptions and events, 2007
- Table 10: Key clinical/commercial attractiveness factors for ACR16
- Table 11: Datamonitor drug assessment parameters
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Forecast of total 6MM market size and key pipeline drugs, 2004-2016,
- Figure 2: Drug assessment summary for HD treatments, 2007
- Figure 3: Total sales revenue of the six major HD markets by region, 2003-07
- Figure 4: Total sales revenue of the six major HD markets by drug class, 2003-07
- Figure 5: Proportion of HD-specific sales revenue attributed to atypical versus typical antipsychotics in the US, 2004 and 2006
- Figure 6: Proportion of HD-specific sales revenue attributed to atypical versus typical antipsychotics in the 5EU, 2004 and 2006
- Figure 7: Genetic risk of developing HD
- Figure 8: Unmet needs in HD treatment, 2007
- Figure 9: Base prevalence future market value for HD ($m), historical sales 2004-06, forecast sales, 2007-2016, 6MM
- Figure 10: High HD prevalence scenario future market value for HD ($m), historical sales 2004-06, forecast sales, 2007-2016, 6MM
- Figure 11: Potential total HD market value ($m), 2004-2016
- Figure 12: Drug assessment summary for Theoretical Drug X for the treatment of HD, 2007
- Figure 13: Summary of HD market and pipeline drugs potential ($m), historical sales 2004-06, forecast sales, 2007-2016
- Figure 14: Xenazine HD specific sales revenue forecast ($m), historical sales 2004-06, forecast sales 2007-2016
- Figure 15: Drug assessment summary for Xenazine in HD, 2007
- Figure 16: ACR16 HD-specific sales revenue forecast ($m), historical sales 2004-06, forecast sales, 2007-2016
- Figure 17: Drug assessment summary for ACR16 in HD, 2007
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