英國消費者信用市場：市場分析

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

The UK consumer credit market continued to perform poorly in Q2 2007. Moreover, difficult conditions persist. As a result, it is vital for lenders to monitor the market' s outlook and its future challenges.

Scope

• Provides the latest marking sizing figures for the UK consumer credit market by product line and analyses industry trends in Q2 2007.
• Covers unsecured personal loans, credit cards, motor finance, retail finance (store cards, installment credit and mail order credit) and overdrafts.
• Details Datamonitor' s latest scenario based forecasts for the future of the consumer credit market in an accompanying interactive Excel model.

Report Highlights

The second quarter of 2007 saw a continuation of the UK consumer credit market' s poor performance, a trend that began in 2005. In particular, high levels of consumer debt and a lack of consumer confidence hampered new business levels. Moreover, interest rates remained high.

The majority of product lines struggled in the second quarter of 2007. This is particularly true of unsecured personal loans, which have performed poorly since mid-2004. The credit card segment continued to see a weak performance, but Q2 2007 was stronger than Q1 2007. On the other hand, overdrafts put in another strong performance.

Lending will be affected in the short term as a result of the global credit crunch. Indeed, in response to the crunch and a lack of funds on the money markets at low rates, lenders are beginning to raise their prices. Moreover, many lenders will implement stricter criteria and reduce exposure to the sub-prime and non-standard sectors.

Reasons to Purchase

• Review market performance in Q2 2007 to place your performance in context to the market' s.
• View the latest independent quarterly and annual forecasts for the UK consumer credit market to plan your future strategy with confidence.
• Understand the key challenges facing lenders and the impact they are having on the market.

Table of Contents

• DATAMONITOR VIEW
  • CATALYST
  • SUMMARY
• ANALYSIS
  • The UK consumer credit market experienced another tough quarter in Q2 2007
    • The consumer credit market contracted in Q2 2007
    • Most product lines continued to struggle in the second quarter of 2007
  • Higher interest rates and tighter lending criteria continued to affect the market in Q2 2007
    • The base rate was increased further in 2007 to curb inflationary pressures
    • High household debt and higher costs of borrowing have slowed the market
    • Lenders remain conservative with regards to lending criteria
  • Datamonitor forecasts a difficult market ahead, particularly for the rest of 2007
    • Datamonitor' s forecasting model explained
    • Datamonitor envisages a slightly better outlook for the rest of 2007, combined with high interest rates
    • Lending will be affected in the short term as a result of the global credit crunch
      • Lenders will raise their prices
      • Lenders will implement stricter criteria and reduce exposure to sub-prime and non-standard sectors
      • Datamonitor' s forecasts have been affected primarily by the poor performance of credit cards and loans
      • Datamonitor has analyzed two additional alternative scenarios
  • RBS won the battle to acquire ABN Amro and the FSA' s latest PPI review was published
    • The RBS consortium' s victory in its acquisition of ABN Amro will not affect RBS' s UK division
      • It is possible, however, that Barclays will now become an acquisition target
    • The investigations into PPI continue to be of concern to lenders
      • The OFT referred PPI to the Competition Commission in 2006
      • The FSA has been investigating the sale of PPI since 2005 and released its third review in September
• APPENDIX
  • Supplementary data
    • Bank of England base rate
    • Balances outstanding
    • CAGR
    • CCJ
    • Consumer credit
    • Gross advances
    • IVAs (Individual Voluntary Arrangements)
    • OFT
    • Overdraft
  • Methodology
  • Forecasting methodology
    • Choice of economic variables
    • Model outputs
    • Bespoke scenario-based forecasting
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Quarterly total consumer credit gross advances and balances outstanding, Q2 2005-Q2 2007
    • Table 2: Consumer credit gross advances by product, Q2 2005-Q2 2007 (£m)
    • Table 3: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2006-11: Neutral Scenario
    • Table 4: Datamonitor' s updated neutral consumer credit forecast by product line, 2006-11 (gross advances, £bn)
    • Table 5: Datamonitor' s updated Pessimistic consumer credit forecast by product line, 2006-11 (gross advances, £bn)
    • Table 6: Datamonitor' s updated Optimistic consumer credit forecast by product line, 2006-11 (gross advances, £bn)
    • Table 7: Consumer credit gross advances by product, 2002-06 (£m)
    • Table 8: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2006-11: Pessimistic Scenario
    • Table 9: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2006-11: Optimistic Scenario
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: The UK consumer credit market continued to slow in Q2 2007
    • Figure 2: Most UK consumer credit products continued to struggle in Q2 2007