Abstract
Overview
Introduction
This brief is the first section of Datamonitor' s "UK Plastic Cards 2007" report. In it, the UK plastic card market is sized by the number of cards, as well as the value and number of transactions. Data is segmented by card type. The brief contains a discussion of the drivers of market performance and concludes with forecasts to 2011 for all card types.
Scope
- The brief sizes the UK market from 2002-2006, examining the metrics of card numbers, the number of transactions and the values of transactions.
- The brief sizes the market segmented by card type. That is to say by debit, credit, charge and private label cards.
- The number of cards, number of transactions and value of transactions are forecast to 2011. These are also presented by card type.
- This brief does not cover competitor market shares. These are available in the competitor section of the UK Plastic Cards series (BFFS0498)
Report Highlights
The UK payment card market continued to grow in 2006, with both the number and value of transactions being higher than in 2005. This has been primarily driven by growth in the debit sector. The number of credit cards in issue and the value of balances outstanding fell in 2006, indicating that this side of the market has struggled.
In 2006, the value of transactions made on the high street was equal to 63% of the total value of UK retail sales, up from 47.1% in 2001 and 35.7% in 1998. The fact that growth in card use has outpaced that in total spending clearly demonstrates the fact that UK consumers are, and continue to grow more, comfortable with the use of plastic cards.
The plastic card market has grown at a rapid pace in recent years and this growth is set to continue. Datamonitor forecasts that the value of transactions made on UK-issued payment cards will grow at a CAGR of 6.6% over the next five years, to reach £645.5 billion in 2011
Reasons to Purchase
- Learn how the UK plastic card market has developed over the last five years.
- Understand how changes in the economy are impacting on the business of issuers in the UK.
- Discover how the market will develop to 2011, including credit card forecasts for optimistic, neutral and pessimistic economic scenarios.
Table of Contents
- Overview
- Catalyst
- Summary
- Table of Contents
- Table of figures
- Table of tables
- UK Plastic Card Market in Review and Future Outlook
- Introduction
- The UK plastic card market continued to grow in 2006 and this trend is
set to continue
- Datamonitor forecasts that the value of payment card spending will reach £645 billion in 2011
- The resilience of the economy, consumer attitudes and an expanding
infrastructure have sustained the market
- The market has benefited from consumers using their payment cards more often
- Competition in the market has continued to encourage multiple cardholding, while the drive for efficiency has seen dormant accounts close
- Plastic cards are growing in importance as payment tools. Card spending is equal to 63% of the value of retail sales
- Plastic cards are also growing in popularity as a means of accessing credit
- From 2002-05, the performance of the economy was an important driver
of the market
- A sustained boom in the UK housing market has driven spending and card-based borrowing
- Falling levels of unemployment have also bolstered the market
- The increased spending levels are reflected in the solid GDP growth in the UK
- While economic fundamentals remain sound, economic conditions are no
longer driving the credit card market forward
- Inflationary pressure has caused the Bank of England to raise interest rates
- Uncertainty in the housing market has compounded the problem
- Collectively, these factors have reduced overall consumer confidence in the UK
- As a result of decreased consumer confidence, the demand for unsecured consumer credit has fallen
- Gross advances on credit cards have broadly matched the wider consumer credit trend
- Cards and Payments Team view
- Despite the slowdown in the credit card section of the market, the
infrastructure has continued to expand
- The growth in the number of ATMS has been fueled by the independent sector
- Summary
- Market Statistics and Key Trends
- Credit and debit cards continue to dominate the market in terms of
issuance
- Credit and debit cards accounted for 87% of the total number of
UK-issued payment cards in 2006
- Multiple cardholding continues to be an important feature of the market
- Within the credit card market, the number of co-branded and premium cards grew at the expense of standard varieties from 2003-06
- The private label card market remains in decline
- Limited acceptance and card limits-and consequently usage-have severely restricted issuer profitability
- Migration to general purpose credit cards has proved to be an effective solution to many of these problems for certain players
- Datamonitor Cards and Payments Team view
- Credit and debit cards accounted for 87% of the total number of
UK-issued payment cards in 2006
- Debit cards continue to account for the lion' s share of card activity
- More than 76% of all plastic card transactions were made by debit card in 2006
- Debit cards are the most frequently used card product
- In 2006, over two thirds of the value of total plastic card transactions were accounted for by debit cards
- Average transaction values are highest on charge cards
- Card turnover is highest on charge cards. However, debit cards enjoy the greatest total activity per adult
- UK consumers have shown a growing willingness to use plastic cards for
payments and when abroad
- UK consumers are using payment cards for more purchase transactions
than ever before
- This trend is most evident in the debit card market
- Credit cards have traditionally been used for purchases
- Purchases dominate transactions abroad, but cash acquisition
transactions are growing in importance
- In 2006, debit cards accounted for a higher value of transactions abroad than credit cards
- Growth in online commerce represents a major opportunity
- UK consumers are using payment cards for more purchase transactions
than ever before
- Summary
- Credit and debit cards continue to dominate the market in terms of
issuance
- Forecasting The UK Payment Card Market
- Datamonitor' s forecast for the UK plastic card market
- Datamonitor forecasts annual growth in the value of payment card transactions of 6.6% to 2011
- Datamonitor' s forecasting model assesses the relationship of
macroeconomic factors with respect to consumer credit products
- Datamonitor bases its neutral view on forecasts provided by the Treasury
- Forecasting the credit card market
- Datamonitor forecasts annual growth in the credit card market of 3.9% to 2011
- Under an optimistic view of future economic performance, Datamonitor forecasts an annual growth of 5.5%
- Under a pessimistic view of future economic performance, Datamonitor forecasts annual growth of -0.7%
- Forecasting the charge card market
- Datamonitor forecasts annual growth in the charge card market of 3.4% to 2010
- Forecasting the debit card market
- Datamonitor forecasts annual growth in the debit card market of 7.6% to 2011
- Forecasting the private label card market
- Datamonitor forecasts that the private label card market will decline at an annual average rate of 2.6% to 2011
- Datamonitor' s forecast for the UK plastic card market
- APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Definitions
- AAGR
- APACS
- Average transaction value
- Balances outstanding
- Bank of England base rate
- CAGR
- Charge card
- Credit card
- CVV
- Debit card
- EMV
- Fraudulent use of card details (card-not-present fraud), also known as fraud on phone, mail order or internet transactions
- Interchange
- Non-standard
- OFT
- Methodology
- Primary research
- Secondary research
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor Consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Growth in the UK payment card market, 2002-06
- Table 2: Datamonitor' s five-year forecast for the UK plastic card market, 2007-11
- Table 3: Number of UK payment cards in issue by type, 2001-05
- Table 4: Credit cards in issue in the UK by type, 2002-06 (000s)
- Table 5: Number of transactions made on UK-issued payment cards by product line, 2002-06
- Table 6: Frequency of transaction by card type in the UK, 2002-06
- Table 7: Value of UK-issued plastic card transactions by product line, 2002-06
- Table 8: Datamonitor' s forecast for the UK plastic card market, 2006-11. (£m)
- Table 9: Forecast performance of the UK consumer credit market drivers under the neutral scenario, 2005-11
- Table 10: Datamonitor' s five-year forecast for the UK credit card market, 2007-11
- Table 11: Market drivers for the UK credit card market under Datamonitor' s forecasting scenario, 2002-11 (1/2)
- Table 12: Market drivers for the UK credit card market under Datamonitor' s forecasting scenario, 2002-11 (2/2)
- Table 13: Datamonitor' s five-year forecast for the UK credit card market under an optimistic scenario, 2007-11
- Table 14: Forecast performance of the UK consumer credit market drivers under the optimistic scenario, 2005-11
- Table 15: Market drivers for the UK credit card market under an optimistic scenario, 2002-11 (1/2)
- Table 16: Market drivers for the UK credit card market under an optimistic scenario, 2002-11 (2/2)
- Table 17: Datamonitor' s five-year forecast for the UK credit card market under a pessimistic scenario, 2007-11
- Table 18: Forecast performance of the UK consumer credit market drivers under the pessimistic scenario, 2005-11
- Table 19: Market drivers for the credit card market under a pessimistic scenario, 2002-11f (1/2)
- Table 20: Market drivers for the credit card market under a pessimistic scenario, 2002-11 (2/2)
- Table 21: Datamonitor' s five-year forecast for the UK charge card market, 2007-11
- Table 22: Market drivers for the UK charge card market under Datamonitor' s forecasting scenario, 2002-11
- Table 23: Datamonitor' s five-year forecast for the UK debit card market, 2007-11
- Table 24: Market drivers for the UK debit card market under Datamonitor' s forecasting scenario, 2002-11
- Table 25: Datamonitor' s five-year forecast for the UK private label card market, 2006-11
- Table 26: Market drivers for the UK private label card market under Datamonitor' s forecasting scenario, 2002-11
- Table 27: Value of online spending in the UK, 1997-2006, (£m)
- Table 28: Current relevant Datamonitor publications, 2007
- Table 29: Future relevant Datamonitor publications, 2007
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: The value of transactions made on UK-issued plastic cards has grown at a compound average rate of 10.2% from 2002-06
- Figure 2: Datamonitor forecasts that the value of transactions made on UK-issued payment cards will grow at a CAGR of 6.6% from 2002-11
- Figure 3: Increased frequency of use has been the key driver of the UK card market, 2002-06
- Figure 4: Plastic cards account for a growing share of UK retail sales, 1998-06
- Figure 5: Plastic cards in the UK have grown as a proportion of total outstanding consumer debt, 2002-06
- Figure 6: UK property prices have surged, 1997-2007
- Figure 7: UK unemployment continues to decline, 1997-2007
- Figure 8: GDP growth for the UK remains sound, 1997-2006
- Figure 9: The base rate has been gradually increasing, 2006-07
- Figure 10: The number of personal insolvencies looks to have peaked in early 2007
- Figure 11: Overall consumer confidence in the UK has plunged, 2004-06
- Figure 12: Overall demand for unsecured consumer credit in the UK has declined, Q2 1998-Q2 2007
- Figure 13: After years of growth, the value of credit card spending in the UK has fallen in 2006 and 2007
- Figure 14: Growth in the UK acceptance network has seen the ratio of population to terminals decline, 2002-06
- Figure 15: Growth in the number of ATMs in the UK has been driven by the increase in the number of independently owned ATMS, and this has reduced the ration of population to ATMs
- Figure 16: Credit and debit cards continue to dominate the UK market, 2002-06
- Figure 17: Average cardholding in the UK has grown over time, but declined in 2005
- Figure 18: Standard and classic credit cards dominate the UK market, but co-branded cards have enjoyed the most rapid growth, 2002-06
- Figure 19: The UK private label market continues to struggle, 2002-06
- Figure 20: Nearly 75% of all plastic card transactions in the UK were made by debit card in 2006
- Figure 21: Debit cards are used for more transactions per card than any other type of payment card in the UK, 2002--06
- Figure 22: Debit cards account for over two-thirds of the value of plastic card transactions, 2002-06
- Figure 23: The value of the average charge card transaction is close to double that of the market average, 2002-06
- Figure 24: Charge cards enjoy the highest turnover per card, but spend per adult is greatest on debit cards in the UK, 2006
- Figure 25: Purchase transactions account for a growing share of total card transaction values in the UK, 2001-05
- Figure 26: Purchases account for a growing share of debit card transaction values in the UK, 1997-2006
- Figure 27: UK-issued credit cards are primarily used for purchase transactions, 2002-06
- Figure 28: Purchases account for the majority of transactions abroad, but cash acquisition is growing in importance, 1997-2006
- Figure 29: Credit cards dominate transactions abroad, but debit cards are growing in importance, 1996-2005
- Figure 30: UK online retail spending has grown dramatically over time, 1997-2006
- Figure 31: Datamonitor forecasts that debit card use will be the primary driver of growth in the UK market, 2007-11
