Abstract
Overview
Introduction
Datamonitor expects the antihypertensive market to exceed $50bn by 2014 across the seven major markets, with novel treatments and the market-leading ARBs delivering much of this value. However, significant hurdles exist, and pharmaceutical companies need to be savvy regarding marketing and pricing structures for their products, as only the most cunning and aggressive companies look set to survive
Scope
- Event-driven sales forecasts, for the period 2005-14, for the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, along with a global overview
- Discussion of individual products in four main classes; beta blockers (BBs), CCBs, ACE inhibitors and the ARBs
- Profiles of the country and market specific issues which will impact future sales in the market including generic erosion and new product launches
- Commercial impact case studies on R&D innovation, clinical trial data and European healthcare reform are included in the analysis
Report Highlights
The ARBs are now the most prescribed class of antihypertensives, as aggressive marketing and premium-pricing enables manufacturers to deliver strong growth in a highly genericized market. Post-2009, however, the value of the ARB class is set to flatten on the back of generic erosion and indication expansion for the ARBs as a class
In order for companies to achieve and maintain growth in this sector, companies need to be savvy regarding the impact of healthcare reform across the globe, particularly in Europe, with marketers who are charged with selling drugs across the EU needing to challenge the attitude that Europe is one, uniform, market like the US and Japan
Novartis' SPP100 (aliskiren) looks set to become the first innovative treatment for hypertension in over a decade. However, due to concerns regarding premium-pricing and similar efficacy compared to the ARBs, market penetration is expected to be slow in the short-term until strong cardiovascular outcome data for the class becomes available
Reasons to Purchase
- View independent, event-driven forecasts for key antihypertensive products and classes across the seven major markets
- Gain insight of the antihypertensive market via Datamonitor analyses, using up to date thought leader opinions and gold-standard IMS Health sales data
- Identify the potential impact of clinical trial results, EU healthcare reform and new product launches on the antihypertensive market
Table of Contents
- CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Objective of the analysis
- Datamonitor insight into the hypertension market
- CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
- Market definition and overview for this report
- Hypertension
- Disease overview
- Epidemiology
- Treatment options; the antihypertensive drug classes
- Drugs that inhibit the renin-angiotensin system (RAS)
- Drugs that do not inhibit the renin-angiotensin system (RAS)
- Other classes of antihypertensive drugs
- CHAPTER 3 COUNTRY MARKET ASSESSMENTS
- Current and future opportunities and threats in the antihypertensives
market
- The global market: overview, opportunities and threats
- Overview
- National markets
- The global movers and shakers
- Global opportunities
- Global threats
- US market: overview, opportunities and threats
- Overview
- US market issues
- Japan: overview, opportunities and threats
- Overview
- Japanese market issues
- European Union: overview, opportunities and threats
- Overview
- EU market issues
- The global market: overview, opportunities and threats
- Current and future opportunities and threats in the antihypertensives
market
- CHAPTER 4 FORECAST ANALYSIS
- Assumptions and events
- Ongoing trends
- Increasing market size
- Increasing use of fixed-dose combinations
- Trial results
- New product launches
- S-amlodipine
- SPP100 (aliskiren)
- Caduet
- Patent issues
- ARB patent expiries
- CCB patent expiries
- Beta-blocker patent expiries
- ACE inhibitor patent expiries
- Other patent expiries
- Additional indications
- Irbesartan gains congestive heart failure indication
- Valsartan gains additional diabetes indication
- Ongoing trends
- Methodology
- Forecasts
- Assumptions and events
- CHAPTER 5 COMMERCIAL IMPACT AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES
- Introduction
- Case study 1
- Novartis and the "renin revolution"
- Case study 2
- Clinical trial data and the potential to change prescribing habits
- Case study 3
- EU healthcare reforms: a tale of two countries
- Case study 1
- Introduction
- APPENDIX A - MARKET DATA AND MAJOR BRAND KEY FACTS
- Global hypertension market data
- Major brand facts
- C7 BBs
- C8 CCBs
- C9 ACEIs
- C9 ARBs
- Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification
- Major brand facts
- Global hypertension market data
- APPENDIX B
- Bibliography
- Hypertension management guidelines
- JNC 7
- ESH/ESC
- WHO/ISH
- BHS-IV
- References
- Hypertension management guidelines
- Report methodology
- General
- Japan sales data
- Key opinion leaders
- About Datamonitor
- About Datamonitor Healthcare
- About the Cardiovascular Disease analysis team
- Disclaimer
- Glossary
- Bibliography
- APPENDIX C - MARKET FORECAST DATA
- US forecasts
- Japan forecasts
- France forecasts
- Germany forecasts
- Italy forecasts
- Spain forecasts
- UK forecasts
- M5EU forecasts
- Global forecasts
- List of Tables
- Table 1: A comparison of the various forms of hypertension recognized by three of the key hypertension guidelines
- Table 2: Sales, sales growth and market share of the ARBs in the seven major markets, 2005
- Table 3: Sales, growth and market share for antihypertensive drug classes in the seven major markets, 2003-04
- Table 4: ARB sales in the seven major markets, 2004
- Table 5: Prevalence of obesity in the seven major markets by age (000s), 2003
- Table 6: US sales and growth of antihypertensive drug classes
- Table 7: Japan sales and growth of antihypertensive drug classes
- Table 8: M5EU sales and growth of antihypertensive drug classes
- Table 9: Country-specific sales for antihypertensive drugs in the five major European countries
- Table 10: Patent expiry dates used in forecasting the antihypertensive market across the seven major markets
- Table 11: Comparison of hypertension levels from the BHSIV guidelines and the GMS contract QOF
- Table 12: Coreg: key facts
- Table 13: Toprol-XL: key facts
- Table 14: Tenormin; key facts
- Table 15: Inderal: key facts
- Table 16: Norvasc: key facts
- Table 17: Plendil: key facts
- Table 18: Cardizem LA: key facts
- Table 19: Adalat: key facts
- Table 20: Altace: key facts
- Table 21: Aceon: key facts
- Table 22: Accupro: key facts
- Table 23: Atacand; key facts
- Table 24: Teveten: key facts
- Table 25: Avapro: key facts
- Table 26: Cozaar: key facts
- Table 27: Benicar: key facts
- Table 28: Micardis: key facts
- Table 29: Diovan: key facts
- Table 30: Antihypertensive classifications
- Table 31: US: antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m), 2006-14, with CAGR between 2004-14 (%)
- Table 32: Japan: antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m), 2006-14, with CAGR between 2004-14 (%)
- Table 33: France: antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m), 2006-14, with CAGR between 2004-14 (%)
- Table 34: Germany: antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m), 2006-14, with CAGR between 2004-14 (%)
- Table 35: Italy: antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m), 2006-14, with CAGR between 2004-14 (%)
- Table 36: Spain: antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m), 2006-14, with CAGR between 2004-14 (%)
- Table 37: UK: antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m), 2006-14, with CAGR between 2004-14 (%)
- Table 38: M5EU: antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m), 2006-14, with CAGR between 2004-14 (%)
- Table 39: Global: antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m), 2006-14, with CAGR between 2004-14 (%)
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Prevalence of hypertension broken down by age, 2004-15
- Figure 2: The renin-angiotensin system
- Figure 3: Angiotensin II is a cardiovascular risk factor with direct tissue effects
- Figure 4: Recommendations for the combining of blood pressure lowering drugs (AB/CD rule) (adapted from Williams et al., 2004)
- Figure 5: Pharmaceutical sales in the seven major markets, 2004
- Figure 6: Market share by antihypertensive class, 2001 and 2004 in the seven major markets
- Figure 7: Sales, growth and market share for antihypertensive drug classes in the seven major markets, 2003-04
- Figure 8: Global sales values for the antihypertensive classes, 2001-04
- Figure 9: Average ex-manufacturer prices of the leading brands of each antihypertensive class across all country markets, 2001-04
- Figure 10: Share of antihypertensives market represented by each of the seven major markets, 2004
- Figure 11: Proportion of population aged 20-39 years, 2004 and 2015, and prevalence of hypertension in this age group in the seven major markets, 2004
- Figure 12: Proportion of population aged 40-59 years, 2004 and 2015, and prevalence of hypertension in this age group in the seven major markets, 2004
- Figure 13: Proportion of population aged 60-79 years, 2004 and 2015, and prevalence of hypertension in this age group in the seven major markets, 2004
- Figure 14: Annual US sales of antihypertensive drug classes, 2001-04
- Figure 15: JNC6 and JNC7 compared; classification of blood pressure levels
- Figure 16: Compelling indications for individual drug classes
- Figure 17: Annual Japanese sales of antihypertensive drug classes, 2001-04
- Figure 18: Annual M5EU sales of antihypertensive drug classes, 2001-04
- Figure 19: Unlike the ARBs, SPP100 produces significant Reductions in plasma renin activity (PRA)
- Figure 20: Clinical development activity with SPP100 (aliskiren), 2005
- Figure 21: Speedel's Phase II study on SPP100
- Figure 22: Novartis's Phase IIb study on SPP100 (Study 2201)
- Figure 23: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) reductions during Novartis's SPP100 plus Diovan study (Study 2203)
- Figure 24: Diastolic blood pressure (DBP) reductions during Novartis's SPP100 plus Diovan study (Study 2203)
- Figure 25: SPP100; building the brand & differentiating it in the market
- Figure 26: ASCOT study design
- Figure 27: ASCOT trial profile
- Figure 28: Domestic and Foreign Sales of German Pharmaceutical Companies
- Figure 29: QOF eleven clinical areas (points)
- Figure 30: The impact of healthcare reforms in Germany on sales growth within the antihypertensive drug market
- Figure 31: The impact of healthcare reforms in the UK on sales growth within the antihypertensive drug market
