天然氣輸出國家論壇動向

Introduction

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an informally structured group of some of the worlds leading gas producers aimed at representing and promoting their mutual interests. Collectively the GECF controls 73% of the worlds gas reserves and 41% of production. This collective strength has lead to concerns by gas importers that the GECF has the potential to evolve into a gas version of OPEC.

Scope of this report

• The report includes an analysis of the key issues arising form each of the GECFs five annual ministerial meetings
• The collective strength and market control of the GECF is analysed in the context of its changing membership structure
• The differing and divergent agendas and motivations of individual GECF members are highlighted

Research and analysis highlights

Membership has fluctuated since the GECFs formation in 2001 and currently consists of Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Norway (as an observer), Oman, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad & Tobago, the UAE and Venezuela. Together these countries account for 73% of global gas reserves and 41% of production.

Despite being united by a common role as gas producers, the GECF members have very different agendas. So far these differences have presented little problem other than occasionally diverging rhetoric, though potential exists for more significant and divisive differences of opinion if the GECF evolves into a more structured organisation.

Key reasons to read this report

• Gain an insight into the key issues arising from each GECF meeting
• Analyse the potential for the GECF to cartelise the global gas market
• Obtain an overview of the differing motivations and agendas of the GECF members

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The GECF is a loosely defined group of gas producers seeking to represent and benefit their mutual interests

The GECF is opposed to the movement away from long term purchase contracts resulting from liberalisation

CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION

This report examines the role played by the GECF and explores its potential to develop into a gas OPEC

CHAPTER 3 MARKET CONTEXT

The GECF members are united by their mutual gas production interests, though consensus of opinion is not guaranteed

Membership of the GECF has grown since its formation

At its formation in 2001 the GECF members collectively produced 39% of the worlds gas

GECF collective reserves at its formation stood at 69% of the world total giving it a significant degree of strength

Like reserves, GECF production levels have increased since formation

The addition of new members and reserve replacement has increased GECF reserves and its proportion of the world total

Differing production and reserves positions amongst the members lead to widely differing R/P ratios

The role of gas in the overall hydrocarbon production mix varies widely between members

The GECF members are at widely differing stages of economic growth and development as evidenced by their per capital GDPs

Fiscal reliance on the energy sector varies significantly between members

The different agendas and positions of the GECF members manifests itself in the differing attitudes to lobbying

CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS OF MEETINGS

The first GECF meeting took place in May 2001 and focused on strongly denying that it had any intentions to be a gas OPEC

The first meeting outlined a twelve point plan of objectives for the organisation

Security of supply and EU liberalisation also featured prominently on the first meetings agenda

In addition to further denials that it was intending to become a gas OPEC, the second meeting raised a number of new issues

The third meeting was dominated by almost identical issues to the second meeting

The fourth meeting debated similar issues though was characterised by Venezuelas announcement that it was keen for the GECF to evolve into a Gas OPEC

Following the fourth meeting, Egypt continued its campaign for gas price decoupling from oil

The latest meeting was a relatively muted affair with few new issues debated

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS

There are a number of reasons that make it unlikely that the GECF will emerge as a gas OPEC

Differing agendas and difficulties in reaching consensus

The disparate nature of the membership

The Existence of Long Term Contracts

Gas is not a global market

Difficulties in allocating production quotas

The threat of international anti-cartel laws

CHAPTER 6 METHODOLOGY

Statistical Notes

Abbreviations Used

Related reports and contact details

List of Figures

Figure 1: GECF Membership

Figure 2: Founder Member Production Levels 2001

Figure 3: Founder Member Reserves 2001

Figure 4: GECF Production 2004

Figure 5: GECF Reserves 2004

Figure 6: GECF Gas Production and Reserves (2004)

Figure 7: GECF Oil and Gas Production (2004)

Figure 8: Role of Energy in GDP vs Per Capita GDP

Figure 9: Percentage of GDP Sourced from Energy sector