Abstract
Bethesda, MD, March 2, 2007 - According to DITTBERNER' s recently released “Broadband Access Shipment Report”, DSL port shipments saw an 11% QoQ increase to a record 24 Million ports and a 19% annual increase to 90 Million ports for all of 2006. Alcatel-Lucent was the leader with 34% of the DSL market in 2006 while second place Huawei increased its market share to 19%. ZTE, Ericsson and Siemens rounded out the top 5 places.
The market consolidation continues and will likely speed up if the DSL market declines as expected by DITTBERNER. The merger of Alcatel-Lucent and the pending merger between Nokia and Siemens are just the latest in a string of consolidation of suppliers that has occurred over the past two years. After the creation of Nokia Siemens Networks, the top 5 suppliers will have 76% of the market, up from 66% at the end of 2005. Of these 5 suppliers, only Huawei and ZTE will not have been involved in a major acquisition, but it was the threat of competition from these two suppliers in a maturing market that encouraged this wave of consolidation.
All regions had strong growth in 2006 with North America growing the fastest at 26%. However, after a torrid first half, shipments to North America dropped 30% and were flat in 4Q06. DITTBERNER believes that the growth in new DSL subscribers in North America will decline by 40% in 2007, and without any new network upgrades being announced, the market will be down. Companies that rely largely on the North American market will be especially vulnerable as the global DSL market growth slows. DITTBERNER also believes that the DSL market in APAC will decline, but the EMEA market will remain flat due to the VDSL build-outs by KPN, TDC, Telecom Italia, and Deutsche Telekom making up for the expected decline in new DSL subscribers. Only CALA will grow strongly in 2007, driven by an expected 21% increase in DSL subscribers in 2007.
The total number of DSLAMs shipped in 2006 grew 68% to 529,000 of which 430,575 were IP-DSLAMs. The rapid growth in DSLAMs is because VDSL port shipments grew 61% in 2006 and VDSL DSLAMs are much smaller than the typical ADSL/ADSL2+ DSLAMs.
Huawei remained the leader in ports shipped on IP-DSLAMs followed by Alcatel and ZTE. In 2006, 54.4% of all DSLAM ports were on IP-DSLAMs. DITTBERNER asserts that the number of DSLAMs by uplink port technology must be reported because it is an important factor in the growth of the Multi-service Switch and Router market. Perennial VDSL leader, ZyXel, was the leader in IP-DSLAMs shipped. Siemens and Alcatel followed, their strong growth in 2006 being due to the sharp increase in VDSL ports shipped by them.
DITTBERNER believes that DSL port shipments have peaked and therefore more consolidation and market exits can be expected as the market matures. Being a new technology supplier, like ZyXel in VDSL, or in a niche market, like Calix with the IOCs in North America, or strong in a couple of large national markets, like NEC in Turkey, Australia, and Japan, will be necessary to thrive in the DSL market as a smaller independent supplier.
Table of Contents
About the BBA Shipment Analysis Tool
Executive Summary
Rolling 4 Quarter Comparison of Ports Shipped and Market Share by Vendor
QoQ DSL Comparison by Vendor
- By Ports Shipped
- By Revenue
- By Units Shipped
DSL Market Share
- By Vendor
- By Region
- By Access Technology
- By Platform Type
- By Rolling 4 Quarters(past 12 months)
FTTH Market Share
- By Vendor
- By Region
- By Access Technology
- By Platform
QoQ Active Ethernet Comparison by Vendor
- By Ports Shipped
- By Revenue
- By Units Shipped
