Goals of this Report
The main goal of this report is to provide CIRs latest forecast of the optical module space. The numbers presented in this report take into consideration the latest developments in telecom spending and new technology deployment. Of these the most important are the rise of 10 GigE, which is becoming a mainstream technology in many large - and sometimes not so large - organizations. This is reflected in CIRs latest forecasts in the form of increased volumes of 10-GigE module shipments of all kinds, especially toward the end of the forecasting period. In addition, we have adjusted our price forecast for 10-GigE modules downwards to reflect the current rapid decline in the cost of such modules.
Scope and Coverage
This report provides analysis of the worldwide market for "optical communications modules," used by telecom and data communications manufacturers of all kinds. We take these modules as consisting primarily of transponders, transceivers, transmitters and receivers used in conjunction with optical communications based on commercially important communications protocols/technologies including:
- SONET/SDH
- Ethernet
- Fibre Channel
- Wave Division Multiplexing
Methodology
As with all CIR forecasts, the approach taken in this report is highly customer-centric. In making our projections for modules our first consideration is likely customer demand. With that in mind, we have based all the forecasts discussed in this report on our understanding of likely equipment shipments as shown in CIRs CNIS service. The numbers in CNIS are themselves based on our understanding of likely service demand over the next five years.
Data for this report has been taken from several sources including interviews with equipment manufacturers, which are the primary customers for the modules covered in this report. Where possible we have attempted to gain information from these interviews on the likely directions that equipment manufacturers are planning to take with regard to adopting new data rates, protocols and MSAs. In addition, we have talked with module makers themselves in order to gain a sense of what type of products are planned in the future, along with the realities of technology development and manufacturing. This data has been supplemented with secondary data sourced from corporate annual and quarterly reports, trade publications, etc.
Table of Contents
- 1.0 Goals of this Report
- 2.0 Scope and Coverage of this Report
- 3.0 Methodology of this Report
- 3.1 Forecasting Philosophy
- 4.0 Summary of Forecasts
- Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
