Intel的微處理器製造及晶片成本分析

Abstract

As the world' s largest and most profitable semiconductor manufacturer, Intel can account for close to a third of all capital equipment purchases in a given year to supply the three to four mega fabs it constructs or retrofits to support each new process node. Intel also invested an average of $US5 billion per year over the past several years on R&D. Much of this went into the development of new microprocessor and process technologies. As a result, Intel is a driver in the direction of semiconductor manufacturing as much as it is in future microprocessors and related technologies.

This report analyzes Intel manufacturing strategy for capacity and technology, and how this strategy will affect Intel' s manufacturing costs for current and future microprocessors.

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Introduction
  • Microprocessor Manufacturing Capacity
    • Wafer Capacity
    • Chip Capacity
    • Process Transitions
  • Manufacturing Technology
    • Process Challenges
    • Process Nodes
    • New Technologies
• Microprocessor Manufacturing Costs
  • The Cost Model
    • Process Parameters
    • Microprocessor Packaging
    • Yield Issues
    • Microprocessor Cost Estimates
  • Cost Trends
    • Average Manufacturing Cost
    • Capacity Effects
• Competition
• Summary
• Methodology
  • Fab Model
  • Microprocessor Model
  • Caveats and Uncertainties
• Glossary

List of Tables

• Table 1. Intel Fab Capacity (Current and Under Construction)
• Table 2. Intel Test and Assembly Facilities
• Table 3. Intel Annual Capital Expenditures and R&D (US$ in Billions)
• Table 4. Intel Microprocessor Wafer Capacity (200mm Equivalents in Thousands)
• Table 5. Intel Microprocessor Capacity in Pentium 4 Willamette on a 0.13µm Equivalent Process Forecast (Units in Millions) 14
• Table 6. Intel Manufacturing Process Nodes
• Table 7. Parameters of Present and Future Intel Microprocessors
• Table 8. Manufacturing Cost Estimates by Microprocessor (US$)
• Table 9. Estimated Cost at Maturity by Microprocessor Generation (US$)

List of Figures

• Figure 1. Microprocessor Total Wafer Capacity (200mm Equivalents, in Thousands)
• Figure 2. Average Manufacturing Cost of All Intel Processors (US$)
• Figure 3. Intel Annual Capital Expenditures and R&D (US$ in Billions)
• Figure 4. Intel Microprocessor Wafer Capacity Forecast (200mm Equivalents in Thousands)
• Figure 5. Intel Microprocessor Total Wafer Capacity Forecast (200mm Equivalents in Thousands)
• Figure 6. Intel Microprocessor Capacity in Pentium 4 Willamette Die on a 0.13µm Equivalent Process Forecast (Units in Millions)
• Figure 7. Percent of Wafer Production by Process Node
• Figure 8. Ramp Rate by Process Node
• Figure 9. Three Pillars of Semiconductor Innovation
• Figure 10. Estimated Cost at Maturity by Microprocessor Generation (US$)
• Figure 11. Intel' s Average Manufacturing Cost (US$) and Die Size (mm2) per Chip