中國WiMAX市場：下個PHS

Abstract

WiMAX has an excellent opportunity to expand China' s market for fixed, portable, and mobile broadband access. Though traction in the 802.16-2004 (fixed) market will be important, the real success of WiMAX in China will depend on the much larger 802.16(e) market. This report evaluates market potential for WiMAX in these applications, the technologies that will compete with WiMAX, and the potential outcomes in China. The estimates for WiMAX subscribers, base stations, and CPEs are provided for both conservative and aggressive forecasts.

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Definition
• Market Overview
  • Technology Evolution
  • Competitive Technologies
    • 3G/HSDPA
    • xDSL
    • Wi-Fi
  • Application Scenarios
  • MII' s WiMAX Spectrum Allocation
  • Trial and Deployment
  • Local Players in the Value Chain
• Drivers and Barriers
  • Drivers
    • Cost-Effective
    • Ease of Deployment
    • Alternative for xDSL or 3G
    • Advanced Technology
  • Barriers
    • Technology (Product) Immaturities
    • Competition from Alternative Technologies
    • Spectrum Allocation
• Chinese Service Providers' Attitudes towards WiMAX
  • China Netcom Has Embraced WiMAX
  • Other Service Providers
• Market Forecast
  • Fast Increase of Broadband and Mobile Internet Users
    • Broadband Users Increase Rapidly
    • The Mobile Internet Market Grows Up
  • Subscriber and Equipment Forecasts
    • Subscriber Forecast
    • Equipment Forecast
• Methodology
• Glossary
• Offices

List of Tables

• Table 1. 802.16-2004 CPE and Base Station Shipment Forecast: China, 2005-2010
• Table 2. 802.16 Technology Evolutions
• Table 3. WiMAX and HSDPA Comparison
• Table 4. Three Rounds of 3.5GHz License Bidding in 337 Cities in China, 2001-2004
• Table 5. Accumulated WiMAX Subscribers Forecast: China, 2005-2010 (in Thousands)
• Table 6. 802.16-2004 CPE and Base Station Shipment Forecast: China, 2005-2010

List of Figures

• Figure 1. Accumulated WiMAX Subscribers Forecast: China, 2005-2010 (in Thousands)
• Figure 2. WiMAX Value Chain in China
• Figure 3. Total Broadband Service Subscriber Base Forecast: China, 2005-2010 (in Millions)
• Figure 4. Mobile and WAP Subscribers Forecast: China, 2003-2010 (in Millions)
• Figure 5. Mobile Data Card (GPRS/CDMA1X) Subscribers Forecast: China, 2003-2010
• Figure 6. Accumulated WiMAX Subscribers Forecast: China, 2005-2010 (in Thousands)
• Figure 7. WiMAX CPE Shipment Forecast: China, 2005-2010 (in Thousands)
• Figure 8. WiMAX Base Station Shipment Forecast: China, 2005-2010 (Units)