全球無線寬頻市場發展

Broadband wireless data connectivity provides the key enabler for new mobility applications and services, which can offer enormous value to mobile consumer and business users. Wi-Fi, WiMAX, 3G/ 4G and other wireless technologies compete and complement each other to provide the connectivity for these services.

The Wireless Broadband Evolution service provides actionable intelligence regarding the role that each technology may play in the growing wireless broadband market. Covering market and technology developments, operator deployments and end-user adoption, it includes primary research from the entire value chain including technology developers, equipment manufacturers, service providers and business and consumer end-users.

• WiMAX equipment
• WiMAX subscribers
• Wireless mesh equipment
• Wi-Fi services⁄deployments
• 3G cellular subscribers⁄services
• Carrier strategies

• Vendor⁄operator strategies
• Spectrum
• Regulatory
• Timeframe for new technologies⁄services to enter the market
• Impact of end-user devices on technology adoption

• Equipment forecasts - units
• Subscriber forecasts
• Revenue forecasts -- US Dollars
• Market shares

• How do different wireless broadband technologies compete or complement each other?
• When will mobile WiMAX become a reality?
• What is the business model for mobile data services?
• How do consumers perceive these technologies⁄products? What are likely adoption rates?

Global; with regional breakouts

In-Stat' s in-house primary research capabilities are unparalleled - especially in the realm of consumer perception⁄adoption. Research incorporates findings from the following survey, which give clients fact-based research:

• WBE End-user Preferences Technology Adoption Panel (TAP) Survey, 1,200+ respondents

• Continuous information service (including In-Depth Reports, In-Sights, In-
• Stant Analyses and In-Dustry Updates)
• Direct analyst inquiry
• Research briefing sessions
• On line HTML and FTP access to research reports
• Customer input on primary research

1.Outline

• Pre-evolution Networks
• Wireless Network Convergence
• Evolution Signposts
  • Technology Roadmaps
  • End-user Perspective
• Market Challenges

2.Wi-Fi Network

• Over 25 million Wi-Fi AP⁄routers shipped in 2005
• Wi-Fi standard in nearly all laptops
• Recent In-Stat survey of US IT decision-makers: >70% say they have Wi-Fi deployed in their businesses
• In-Stat estimates there were over commercial 100.8k worldwide hotspots in 2005 and will nearly double by end of 2009

3. Wireless Mesh Network

• Meshing extends reach of Wi-Fi and WiMAX
• Wi-Fi- based Mesh Networks are starting to appear in municipal deployments
• Cities across US putting out RFPs for muni broadband
• Content providers like Google want to be part of this space
• Opportunity for WiMAX in backhaul
• Trials⁄RFP' s - San Francisco, Tempe, Philadelphia, New Orleans, etc.

4.Cellular 3G Network Diagram

• Peak 3G infrastructure deployments occurred in 2004 - 2005. There are now over 2M cellular base stations worldwide, including over 300K WCDMA.
• There are currently over 2.3B cellular subscribers worldwide, and by 2010 this number will be 3.6B. Over 100M current subscribers connect via a 3G technology, and by 2010 it will be 816M.

5.WiMAX (Fixed⁄Mobile) Network " Migrating from proprietary systems to standards based systems

• Operating in multiple spectrums, both licensed and license-exempt
• Early deployments expected to be in backhaul
• Mobility will differentiate it from cable modem⁄DSL
• In-Stat estimates 4.7k WiMAX base station shipments in 2005
• 802.16e, mobile standard approved end of 2005, but no equipment expected until at least the second half of 2006
• WiBro currently has trial deployments in S. Korea

7. Wireless Broadband Evolution = Technology & Market Convergence

8.Wireless Broadband Evolution = Technology & Market Convergence (Continued)

• Starting to see interest in device vendors and service providers to offer connectivity over various network technologies
• Users want to remain connected as they move between different environments
• The development of any service⁄technology needs to balance the compete⁄co-exist factor of other wireless technologies

9. Wireless Broadband Evolution

10. Signposts: Technology Roadmap and End-User Attitudes

11. Wi-Fi Device Roadmap: 1999- 2004

12.Wi-Fi Device Roadmap: 1999- 2004(Continued)

• Wi-Fi into wide variety of smaller and smaller networking form factors
• 802.11b products launched in 99 - at first large & bulky
• Late 2000 and 2001: Turning point for consumer market w⁄ intro of wireless router device
• 2003: 802.11g products launch and Intel pushes Centrino mobile platform
• 2004: Wi-Fi clearly being integrated into non-traditional networking devices - 802.11g is mature
• Late 2004: pre-N MIMO products launch

13.Wi-Fi Device Roadmap: 2005- 2009

14. Wi-Fi Device Roadmap: 2005- 2009(Continued)

• Wi-Fi moving away from Traditional Networking
• 2005: Integrated into Nintendo DS and Sony PlayStation Portable handheld gaming consoles
• 2005: digital cameras and MP3 players w⁄ integrated Wi-Fi released
• 2006: Xbox 360 features wireless gaming adapter peripheral - expectations for embedded Wi-Fi in Sony PlayStation3 and Nintendo Revolution
• 2008-09: Expectations for Wi-Fi embedded into cellular phones on large scale

15.State of 3G - Device Roadmap

16.State of 3G - Device Roadmap(Continued)

• Embedded cellular modems are starting to appear where only Wi-Fi has gone before - laptops, inventory management systems
• IMS is driving the cellular network toward all IP with SIP based all IP devices expected to start appearing in 2008
• Machine-2-Machine (M2M) usage is growing for cellular, providing carriers with extra revenue

17.WiMAX: End-User Device Roll-Out

18.WiMAX: End-User Device Roll-Out(Continued)

• WiMAX device roadmap dependent on service provider rollouts and vise-versa
• Late 2005: 802.16e Mobile WiMAX ratified
• 2006 year of trials, WiBro expected to kick-start Mobile WiMAX
• 2007-2008 WiMAX possible form factors - embedded in laptops, cellular phones, deployment of micro and pico base stations

19.Technology Comparison

20.Demand-Side Views on Wireless Broadband

21.Devices Used for Wireless Data Access

• 80% of mobile professionals surveyed responded using wireless data
• Nearly 72% use a laptop or computer
• 39.6% report using mobile phone for wireless data
• Mobile professionals traveling with multiple wireless enabled devices

22.How Laptop Users Connect

• Wi-Fi dominates laptop data connections
• Very small percent uses only cellular networks

23.How Users Pay for Wi-Fi Connectivity

• 45% of respondents said they pay for Wi-Fi data access
• Those just paying on a “per-use basis only” least common, most users paying for a connection have a monthly subscription
• Free still plays a big role with 36%

24.Influence of Wi-Fi on Travel

• The availability of Wi-Fi access is starting to play a role in travel plans
• Only 39% said availability of Wi-Fi plays no role in travel plans

25.Wi-Fi Versus Cellular Data

• Wi-Fi has greater satisfaction throughput
• Cellular has greater satisfaction for coverage
• Both have similar satisfaction for price
• Ranked on scale 1-5, 5 = Completely satisfied, 1 = Completely dissatisfied

26.Why Wireless Data Isn' t Used

• Lack of need and high cost remain two largest deterrents
• Overall good awareness of wireless broadband
• Performance issues were not major deterrents

27.Market Challenges

• How will the various wireless broadband technologies compete with or complement each other?
• What is the technology life-cycle?
• What is the timeframe for market adoption?
• What role will end-user devices play in the evolution?
• Which service providers will deploy which technologies?
• What will be the winning service provider business models?

Research Service Overview

Lead Analyst Team