Abstract
Background
China has shaken off macro-economy depression and set foot on a fast growing road since 2003. In the meantime, under the conditions of shortage of supply central government has adopted a set of agriculture-oriented policies in order to stimulate the recovery of grain production, for example, agricultural subsidy expenditure, agricultural tax abolishment, etc. Therefore, fertilizer production, demand and investment in China witnessed a continuous growth influenced with the two favorable factors.
However, under the conditions of shortage of domestic and international energy sources plus surging prices of mineral resources, a set of macro-adjustment policies are adopted to control a highly liquid currency circulation and prevent inflation; at the same time, price and revenue policies are carried out to restrain the excessive consumption of energy sources and mineral resources and large amount of investment into high energy consumption industries. Negative effects in fertilizer industry have increased with the implementation of macro-economy policies, and they showed more distinctive entered 2006-2007 as followed:
In 2007, domestic supply and demand are blooming in fertilizer market with strong demand worldwide. However, fertilizer material cost and industrial powder generally marked up, suppressing the rise of fertilizer production cost and price, plus export limit, so profit margin in fertilizer industry decreased dramatically.
From the view of new policies adopted by central government and policy guide in the Central Economy Working Conference in November and December, 2007, policies will focus on the following points next year. It will deepen the reform of fiscal revenue, price and investment system to promote the change of economy development; macro-adjustment will be carried out on the principle of quantity control, price stabilization, structure adjustment and balance promotion; the most important task of macro-adjustment is to prevent excessive economy growth and avoid dramatic price inflation; forceful measures will be adopted to restrain the excessive price growth and enhance the production of basic necessities, such as grains, edible vegetable oil, meat products, etc; currency polices will play a more important role in macro-economy to restrain total amount and speed of currency credit; stable fiscal policies and tight currency polices will be implemented.
Fertilizer industry in 2008 will be restrained by cost growth and price limit under the influence of the mentioned macro policies. In the meantime, the implementation time of fertilizer production preferential policy abolishment brought forward in 2006 is still not settled, further deepening the uncertainty of Chinese fertilizer market. Therefore, it is more important to estimate and grasp precisely the trend of domestic fertilizer production and market.
Combined with national economy development and policy reform, BOABC will research deeply in 2008 Chinese fertilizer market trend on the basis of an overall analysis and review in Chinese fertilizer market policies and trend in 2007 as to make a specific estimate in Chinese future fertilizer market, which will be a strategic reference for insiders domestically and internationally focusing on fertilizer market in China.
Table of Contents
CHAPTER ONE Macro-Economy & Fertilizer Industry' S Development
- 1.1 National Economy in China
- 1.1.1 National Macro-economy and Its Trend in China, 2007 & 2008
- 1.1.2 Achievement of National Economy in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan
- 1.1.3 Achievement of National Economy Fertilizer Industry in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan
- 1.1.4 Achievement of Agriculture Development in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan
- 1.2 Influences of Revenue and Subsidy Agricultural Policies on Fertilizer
Production and Demand
- 1.2.1 Influences of Agricultural Planting Policies on Fertilizer Demand
- 1.2.2 Influences of Grain Subsidy and Integrated Subsidy Policies on Fertilizer Demand
- 1.2.3 Influences of Export Tax on Fertilizer Production
- 1.3 Influences of Resources Policy Adjustment on Fertilizer Industry
- 1.3.1 Trend of Coal Policies & influences in Fertilizer Industry
- 1.3.2 Trend of Natural Gas Policies & influences in Fertilizer Industry
- 1.3.3 Trend of Mine Policies & influences in Fertilizer Industry
- 1.4 Environmental Protection & Fertilizer Industry' s Investment & Development
- 1.5 Influences of Excessive Investment and Surplus Circulation on Investment and Development of Fertilizer Industry
- 1.6 Influences of Opening-Up to Outside World on Investment, Production and Circulation in Fertilizer Industry in China
- 1.7 Investment of Fertilizer Industry in China
- 1.7.1 Investment in Nitrogen Industry
- 1.7.2 Investment in Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Industry
- 1.7.3 Investment in Potassium Industry
- 1.8 Fertilizer Industry' s Competitiveness
- 1.8.1 Nitrogen Industry' s Competitiveness
- 1.8.2 Phosphorus Industry' s Competitiveness
- 1.8.3 Potassium Industry' s Competitiveness
- 1.9 Conformity of Fertilizer Industry in China
- 1.10 Fertilizer Distribution System
- 1.10.1 Trend of Fertilizer Distribution System Reform
- 1.10.2 Development of Chain Store Mode in Farm Material Distribution
- 1.10.3 Sinochem' s Marketing Network Construction
- 1.10.4 China Farm Supply Group' s Marketing Network Construction
- 1.10.5 Postal System' s Participation in Farm Material Supply
- 1.10.6 Foreign Investment in Fertilizer Distribution
CHAPTER TWO Review & Outlook Of China' S Fertilizer Market In 2007-2008
- 2.1 Review of Fertilizer Market in 2007
- 2.1.1 Analysis of Fertilizer Industry' s Prosperity Index in 2007
- 2.1.2 Fertilizer Market in 2007
- 2.1.3 Influence of International Fertilizer Market on Chinese Market
- 2.1.4 Fertilizer Input & Returns from Farm Production
- 2.1.5 Fertilizer Production in 2007
- 2.1.6 Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2007
- 2.1.7 Fertilizer Consumption in 2007
- 2.1.8 Fertilizer Market Price in 2007
- 2.2 Outlook of Fertilizer Market in 2008
- 2.2.1 Prediction of Fertilizer Market Trend in 2008
- 2.2.2 Possible Fertilizer Policy in 2008
- 2.2.3 Fertilizer Import Quota Distribution for Year 2008
- 2.2.4 Authorized Fertilizer Importers in 2008
- 2.2.5 Possible Change in Fertilizer Export Tax Rate
- 2.2.6 Trend of Fertilizer Market Policy, 2008
- 2.2.7 Estimates of Fertilizer Production in 2008
- 2.2.8 Estimates of Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2008
- 2.2.9 Estimates of Fertilizer Consumption in 2008
CHAPTER Three Review & Outlook Of Nitrogen Market In 2007-2008
- 3.1 Review of Nitrogen Market in 2007
- 3.1.1 Analysis of Nitrogen Industry' s Prosperity Index in 2007
- 3.1.2 Production Cost & Yields in Nitrogen Industry in 2007
- 3.1.3 Analysis of Nitrogen Market in 2007
- 3.1.4 Nitrogen Production in 2007
- 3.1.5 Nitrogen Imports & Exports in 2007
- 3.1.6 Nitrogen Consumption in 2007
- 3.1.7 Review of Urea Market in 2007
- 3.1.7.1 Analysis of Urea Market in 2007
- 3.1.7.2 Urea Production in 2007
- 3.1.7.3 Urea consumption in 2007
- 3.1.7.4 Urea Price Trend
- 3.1.8 ABC Market in 2007
- 3.1.8.1 ABC Production in 2007
- 3.1.8.2 ABC Consumption in 2007
- 3.1.8.3 ABC Price Trend in 2007
- 3.2 Outlook of Nitrogen Market in 2008
- 3.2.1 Prediction of Nitrogen Market Trend in 2008
- 3.2.2 Urea Market Trend in 2008
- 3.2.3 Estimates of Nitrogen Production in 2008
- 3.2.4 Estimates of Nitrogen Imports & Exports in 2008
- 3.2.5 Estimates of Nitrogen Consumption in 2008
CHAPTER FOUR Review & Outlook Of Phosphorus Market, 2007-2008
- 4.1 Review of Phosphorus Market in 2007
- 4.1.1 Analysis of Phosphorus Industry' s Prosperity Index in 2007
- 4.1.2 Cost & Yields in Phosphorus Industry in 2007
- 4.1.3 Analysis of Phosphorus Market in 2007
- 4.1.4 Phosphorus Production in 2007
- 4.1.5 Phosphorus Imports & Exports in 2007
- 4.16 Phosphorus Consumption in 2007
- 4.1.7 Phosphorus Price in 2007
- 4.2 Outlook of Phosphorus Market in 2008
- 4.2.1 Prediction of Phosphorus Market Trend in 2008
- 4.2.2 Estimates of Phosphorus Production in 2008
- 4.2.3 Estimates of Phosphorus Exports
- 4.2.4 Estimates of Phosphorus Consumption
CHAPTER FIVE Review & Outlook Of Potassium Market In 2007-2008
- 5.1 Review of Potassium Market in 2007
- 5.1.1 Analysis of Potassium Industry' s Prosperity Index in 2007
- 5.1.2 Cost & Yields in Potassium Industry
- 5.1.3 Qinghai Salt Lake Potassium Group' s Production
- 5.1.4 Progress in Xinjiang Lop Nor Potassium Project
- 5.1.5 Progress in Chinese Overseas Potassium Projects
- 5.1.6 Potassium Market in 2007
- 5.1.7 Potassium Production in 2007
- 5.1.8 Potassium Imports & Exports in 2007
- 5.1.9 Potassium Consumption in 2007
- 5.1.10 Potassium Price in 2007
- 5.2 Outlook of Potassium Market in 2008
- 5.2.1 Prediction of Potassium Market Trend in 2008
- 5.2.2 Estimates of Potassium Production in 2008
- 5.2.3 Estimates of Potassium Exports in 2008
- 5.2.4 Potassium Consumption in 2008
CHAPTER SIX Review & Outlook Of Compound Fertilizer Market In 2007-2008
- 6.1 Review of compound fertilizer Market in 2007
- 6.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Index in compound fertilizer Industry in 2007
- 6.1.2 Cost & Yields in Compound Fertilizer Industry in 2007
- 6.1.3 Analysis of Compound Fertilizer in 2007
- 6.1.4 Compound Fertilizer Production in 2007
- 6.1.5 Compound Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2007
- 6.1.6 Compound Fertilizer Consumption in 2007
- 6.1.7 NPK And DAP Price Trend in 2007
- 6.2 Outlook of Compound Fertilizer Market in 2008
- 6.2.1 Prediction of Compound Fertilizer Market Trend in 2008
- 6.2.2 Estimates of Compound Fertilizer production in 2008
- 6.2.3 Estimates of Compound Fertilizer Imports & Exports in 2008
- 6.2.3.1 Estimates of DAP Imports & Exports in 2008
- 6.2.3.2 Estimates of NPK Exports in 2008
- 6.2.4 Estimates of Compound Fertilizer Consumption
CHAPTER SEVEN Review & Outlook Of Fertilizer-Related Industries In 2007-2008
- 7.1 Review & Outlook of Synthetic Ammonium Market in 2007-2008
- 7.1.1 Prospect of Synthetic Ammonium Imports
- 7.1.2 Synthetic Ammonium Production in 2007
- 7.1.3 Synthetic Ammonium Imports & Exports in 2007
- 7.1.4 Synthetic Ammonium Price Trend in 2007
- 7.1.5 Estimates of Synthetic Ammonium Production in 2008
- 7.1.6 Estimates of Synthetic Ammonium Imports & Exports
- 7.2 Review & Outlook of Phosphorite Market in 2007-2008
- 7.2.1 Prospect of Phosphorite Imports
- 7.2.2 Phosphorite Production in 2007
- 7.2.3 Phosphorite Imports & Exports
- 7.2.4 Phosphorite Price Trend in 2007
- 7.2.5 Estimates of Phosphorite Production in 2008
- 7.2.6 Phosphorite Imports & Exports in 2008
- 7.3 Review & Outlook of Sulfuric Acid Market in 2007-2008
- 7.3.1 Sulfuric Acid Production in 2007
- 7.3.2 Sulfur Production in 2007
- 7.3.3 Sulfuric Iron Production in 2007
- 7.3.4 Sulfur Imports in 2007
- 7.3.5 Sulfuric Acid Imports
- 7.3.6 Sulfuric Iron, Sulfuric Acid & Sulfur Price Trend in 2007
- 7.3.7 Estimates of Sulfuric Acid Production in 2008
- 7.3.8 Estimates of Sulfur Production in 2008
- 7.3.9 Estimates of Sulfuric Iron Production in 2008
- 7.3.10 Estimates of Sulfur Imports in 2008
- 7.3.11 Estimates of Sulfuric Acid Imports in 2008
- 7.4 Review & Outlook of Phosphoric Acid Market in 2007-2008
- 7.4.1 Phosphoric Acid Production in 2007
- 7.4.2 Phosphoric Acid Imports in 2007
- 7.4.3 Estimates of Phosphoric Acid Production in 2008
- 7.4.4 Estimates of Phosphoric Acid Imports in 2008
APPENDIX I Table
- Chemical Fertilizer
- Table1, Chemical Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2003-2008
- Table2, Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2003-2007
- Table3, Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products, 2003-2007
- Table4, Chemical Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table5, Chemical Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- N-Fertilizer
- Table6, N-Fertilizer Balance Sheet, 2003-2008
- Table7, Balance Sheet of Urea in China, 2003-2008
- Table8, N-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2003-2007
- Table9, N-Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table10, N-Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- Table11, China' s Urea Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table12, China' s Urea Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table13, Urea Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table14, China' s Urea Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table15, China' s Urea Imports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- Table16, China' s Urea Exports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- P-Fertilizer
- Table17, P-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2003-2008
- Table18, P-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2003-2007
- Table19, P-Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table20, P-Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- K-Fertilizer
- Table21, K-Fertilizers Balance Sheet, 2003-2008
- Table22, K-Fertilizer Production by Variety, 2003-2007
- Table23, K-Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table24, K-Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- Table25, China' s Potassium Chloride Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table26, China' s Potassium Chloride Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table27, Potassium Chloride Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table28, China' s Potassium Chloride Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table29, Potassium Chloride Imports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- Table30, China' s Potassium Sulphate Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table31, China' s Potassium Sulphate Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table32, Potassium Sulphate Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table33, China' s Potassium Sulphate Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table34, Potassium Sulphate Imports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- Compound Fertilizer
- Table35, Balance Sheet of Compound Fertilizer in China, 2003-2008
- Table36, Balance Sheet of DAP in China, 2003-2008
- Table37, Compound Fertilizer Production, 2003-2007
- Table38, Compound Fertilizer Consumption, 2003-2007
- Table39, China' s NPK Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table40, China' s NPK Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table41, NPK Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table42, China' s NPK Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table43, NPK Imports by Provinces, 2003-2007
- Table44, China' s DAP Imports by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table45, China' s DAP Exports by Country Destination, 2003-2007
- Table46, DAP Imports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table47, China' s DAP Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table48, DAP Imports by Province, 2003-2007
- Chemical Fertilizer Related Products
- Table49, China' s Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2003-2007
- Table50, China' s Production by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2003-2007
- Table51, China' s Sulfur Import by Country Original, 2003-2007
- Table52, China' s Sulfur Import by Customs, 2003-2007
- Table53, China' s Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products, 2003-2007
- Table54, China Unground Phosphorite Exports by Destination Country, 2003-2007
- Table55, China Phosphorite Exports by Customs, 2003-2007
