西歐固定通訊市場：市場規模・市場預測（2004年至2013年）

Western European Fixed Telecoms Markets: market sizings and forecasts 2004- 13 analyses the key factors that are driving the fixed market in Western Europe, with a particular focus on the status of broadband, and includes a consideration of the potential impact of VoIP.

• Which key trends are shaping the fixed telecoms markets in individual countries?
• Will spend on residential services continue to form a growing proportion of total spend on fixed telecoms?
• Can increasing spend on broadband services ever compensate for declines in other areas?
• How great are the drivers of fixed- mobile line substitution in individual markets?
• How will VoIP-driven competition affect average spend per site for fixed voice?
• How far could broadband penetrate the residential markets and what level of spend per household could be expected?
• What share of broadband spend can cable operators and other non-DSL broadband players hope to gain?

Western European Fixed Telecoms: market sizings and forecasts 2004- 13 is essential reading for anyone wanting to understand the key factors that will influence the nature and size of the Western European fixed telecoms market over the next five years. The slide-pack format makes the key issues quick and easy to digest, while the Excel data tables of forecasts make this report ideal for those wanting more detailed estimates for particular countries, market segments, technologies or services.

Forecasts of total spend, service and line penetration, and ASPS (average spend per site) are presented for Western Europe as a whole, as well as for seventeen countries:

• Austria
• Belgium
• Denmark
• Finland
• France
• Germany
• Greece
• Iceland
• Ireland
• Italy
• Netherlands
• Norway
• Portugal
• Spain
• Sweden
• Switzerland
• UK

• residential narrowband-only, residential broadband and narrowband, residential broadband-only
• small and medium business sites
• large business sites

... and into spend on different types of service:

• PSTN/ISDN subscriptions
• PSTN/ISDN voice calls
• dial-up Internet
• broadband access and services: Internet access, VoIP and IPTV
• business network services: managed and unmanaged non-IP data services, including leased lines, plus managed IP data services.

End-user line information, broken down into residential and business, is provided on the following technologies:

• PSTN
• ISDN
• xDSL
• cable-modem
• residential FTTB
• broadband fixed wireless

In addition, the report provides forecasts of voice minutes for each country for residential and business PSTN/ISDN and VoIP.

Operators and service providers: understand the key trends that are shaping the fixed/broadband market in Western Europe and the demand, competitive situation and regulatory factors behind these trends

Vendors: quantify the market opportunity for advanced broadband services and learn where infrastructure investment is likely to grow

Content providers: quantify the market opportunity for telco video services

Financial institutions and consultancies: gain insight into the trends driving the evolution of the fixed/broadband market in Western Europe and use detailed forecasts to inform investment decisions

Regulators: understand the impact, in both qualitative and quantitative terms, of key regulatory issues on operators' retail revenue and subscriber numbers.

• 6. Document map-Executive summary
• 7. Executive Summary
• 8. Document map-Introduction,scope and methodology
• 9. This report provides fixed telecoms forecasts for 17 individual country markets and for Western Europe as a whole
• 10. The data amiex provides the following measures
• 11. The forecasts measure end-user spend by type of site and type of service....
• 12. ....and are based on spend per site, not on spend per enterprise
• 13. Sites are further categorised by level of bandwidth used
• 14. Line data is broken down by the principal narrowband and broadband fixed technologies
• 15. Narrowband access and services spend has separable components
• 16. Broadband access and services spend does not have readily separable components, but can be broken down by access technology
• 17. Business network services bring together the range of managed and unmanaged WAN-environment data services
• 18. Fixed minutes include PSTN/ISDN and VolP
• 19. For the purposes of this report, IPTV means linear TV delivered over broadband networks
• 20. Actual and historical market sizing is calculated around the central equation ‘ASPS x penetration = spend'
• 21. There are three main sets of inputs into the forecasts
• 22. The forecasts are intended to predict outcomes rather than to model market opportunity
• 23. Document map - Individual service outlook
• 24. Fixed telecoms has a declining share of a stagnating telecoms service market
• 25. The decline in narrowband access and services is greater than the improvement in broadband access and services
• 26. The proportion of total spend by the residential and business segments will be fairly stable
• 27. The rate of decline in fixed telecoms spend will vary between markets
• 28. Swiftly declining mobile premiums are accelerating fixed-mobile call substitution
• 29. VolP will not significantly slow the process of voice migration to mobile
• 30. There will still be major differences between individual markets in the proportion of voice traffic originated on fixed networks
• 31. The pattern of decline in residential fixed voice will be different from that in business fixed voice
• 32. The number of lines, and of minutes per equivalent PSTN/ISDN line will decline
• 33. The average value of an equivalent narrowband line will decline by 30.3% by 2013
• 34. Dial-up Internet will effectively disappear by 2012
• 35. Telcos' dominance of broadband will be consolidated
• 36. LLUB serves as a major driver of broadband take-up
• 37. Urbanisation and wealth will foster higher residential broadband penetration in Northern Europe
• 38. In Central and Southern Europe broadband penetration will generally be lower
• 39. Over 90% of all households with a fixed connection will have broadband by 2013
• 40. Overall fixed-line penetration will start to increase in some markets
• 41. Residential FTTB will make a sizeable impact only in some markets
• 42. We do not expect non-cellular wireless technologies to make a significant impact in the region
• 43. Mass-market cellular broadband is becoming more affordable but is still complementary, rather than competitive
• 44. The sharpest declines in broadband ASPS have already happened
• 45. VolP penetration will depend on the conditions of the PSTN and unbundling markets
• 46. IPTV penetration depends largely on the strength of other pay-TV platforms
• 47. Overall spend on business network services tends to fluctuate little
• 48. The decline of fixed telecoms service provision does not have to mean the decline of the businesses involved
• 49. Document map - Individual market trends
• 50. Key trends in Austria
• 51. Outlook for major players in Austria
• 52. Basic forecast indicators Austria
• 53. Key trends in Belgium
• 54. Outlook for major players in Belgium
• 55. Basic forecast indicators, Belgium
• 56. Key trends in Denmark
• 57. Outlook for major players in Denmark
• 58. Basic forecast indicators Denmark
• 59. Key trends in Finland
• 60. Outlook for major players in Finland
• 61. Basic forecast indicators, Finland
• 62. Key trends in France
• 63. Outlook for major players in France
• 64. Basic forecast indicators France
• 65. Key trends in Germany
• 66. Outlook for major players in Germany
• 67. Basic forecast indicators, Germany
• 68. Key trends in Greece
• 69. Outlook for major players in Greece
• 70. Basic forecast indicators, Greece
• 71. Key trends in Iceland
• 72. Outlook for major players in Iceland
• 73. Basic forecast indicators Iceland
• 74. Key trends in Ireland
• 75. Outlook for major players in Ireland
• 76. Basic forecast indicators Ireland
• 77. Key trends in Italy
• 78. Outlook for major players in Italy
• 79. Basic forecast indicators, Italy
• 80. Key trends in the Netherlands
• 81. Outlook for major players in the Netherlands
• 82. Basic forecast indicators the Netherlands
• 83. Key trends in Norway
• 84. Outlook for major players in Norway
• 85. Basic forecast indicators,Norway
• 86. Key trends in Portugal
• 87. Outlook for major players in Portugal
• 88. Basic forecast indicators, Portugal
• 89. Key trends in Spain
• 90. Outlook for major players in Spain
• 91. Basic forecast indicators, Spain
• 92. Key trends in Sweden
• 93. Outlook for major players in Sweden
• 94. Basic forecast ,
• 95. Key trends it indicators, Sweden
• 96. Outlook for major players in Switzerland
• 97. Basic Forecast indicators, Switzerland
• 98. Key trends in the UK
• 99. Outlook for major players in the UK
• 100. Basic forecast indicators, the UK
• 101. Document map - Actions for operators
• 102. Actions [1]
• 103. Actions [2]
• 104. Actions [3]
• 105. Actions [4]
• 106. Document map: Authors, copyright and glossary
• 107. Authors
• 108. Acknowledgements and copyright
• 109. Disclaimer
• 110. Glossary of terms [1]
• 111. Glossary of terms [2]
• 112. Document map: List of figures and tables
• 113. List of figures and tables
• 114. List of figures and tables(continued)
• 115. List of figures and tables(continued)
• 116. List of figures and tables(continued)
• 117. List of figures and tables(continued)
• 118. List of figures and tables(continued)
• 119. List of figures and tables(continued)
• 120. Document map: About Analysys reports and services